Skip to main content
Erschienen in: Soft Computing 1/2011

01.01.2011 | Focus

Evolving robust GP solutions for hedge fund stock selection in emerging markets

verfasst von: Wei Yan, Christopher D. Clack

Erschienen in: Soft Computing | Ausgabe 1/2011

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Stock selection for hedge fund portfolios is a challenging problem for Genetic Programming (GP) because the markets (the environment in which the GP solution must survive) are dynamic, unpredictable and unforgiving. How can GP be improved so that solutions are produced that are robust to non-trivial changes in the environment? We explore two new approaches. The first approach uses subsets of extreme environments during training and the second approach uses a voting committee of GP individuals with differing phenotypic behaviour.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Fußnoten
1
An alternative approach is to look for an adaptive solution, i.e. one that detects changes in the environment and responds by modifying its internal structure and the way that it operates. However, a similar question arises: in an unforgiving environment, would it have time to adapt and survive without prior exposure to extreme environments?
 
2
Connected networks of RNA sequences with identical structure.
 
3
A contrarian strategy might do the opposite—sell the high stocks and buy the low stocks, on the expectation that mean-reversion will occur and the high stocks will fall while the low stocks will rise.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Aragón VS, Esquivel SC (2004) An evolutionary algorithm to track changes of optimum value locations in dynamic environments. J Comput Sci Technol 4(3):127–134 Aragón VS, Esquivel SC (2004) An evolutionary algorithm to track changes of optimum value locations in dynamic environments. J Comput Sci Technol 4(3):127–134
Zurück zum Zitat Bersano-Begey TF, Daida JM (1997) A discussion on generality and robustness and a framework for fitness set construction in genetic programming to promote robustness. In: Koza JR (ed) Late breaking papers at the 1997 genetic programming conference. Stanford Bookstore, Stanford University, California, pp 11–18 Bersano-Begey TF, Daida JM (1997) A discussion on generality and robustness and a framework for fitness set construction in genetic programming to promote robustness. In: Koza JR (ed) Late breaking papers at the 1997 genetic programming conference. Stanford Bookstore, Stanford University, California, pp 11–18
Zurück zum Zitat Bowers CP (2005) Formation of modules in a computational model of embryogeny. In: The 2005 IEEE Congress on evolutionary computation, vol 1, pp 537–542 Bowers CP (2005) Formation of modules in a computational model of embryogeny. In: The 2005 IEEE Congress on evolutionary computation, vol 1, pp 537–542
Zurück zum Zitat Branke J (1998) Creating robust solutions by means of evolutionary algorithms. In: PPSN V: Proceedings of the 5th international conference on parallel problem solving from nature. Springer-Verlag, London, pp 119–128 Branke J (1998) Creating robust solutions by means of evolutionary algorithms. In: PPSN V: Proceedings of the 5th international conference on parallel problem solving from nature. Springer-Verlag, London, pp 119–128
Zurück zum Zitat Brown G, Wyatt J, Harris R, Yao X (2005) Diversity creation methods: a survey and categorisation. Inf Fusion 6(1):5–20CrossRef Brown G, Wyatt J, Harris R, Yao X (2005) Diversity creation methods: a survey and categorisation. Inf Fusion 6(1):5–20CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Buxton B, Langdon WB, Barrett SJ (2001) Data fusion by intelligent classifier combination. Meas Control 34(8):229–234 Buxton B, Langdon WB, Barrett SJ (2001) Data fusion by intelligent classifier combination. Meas Control 34(8):229–234
Zurück zum Zitat Dietterich TG (2000) Ensemble methods in machine learning. In: Proceedings of the first international workshop on multiple classifier systems. LNCS, vol 1857. Springer, New York, pp 1–15 Dietterich TG (2000) Ensemble methods in machine learning. In: Proceedings of the first international workshop on multiple classifier systems. LNCS, vol 1857. Springer, New York, pp 1–15
Zurück zum Zitat Egan JP (1975) Signal detection theory and ROC analysis. Academic Press, New York Egan JP (1975) Signal detection theory and ROC analysis. Academic Press, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Fitzpatrick JM, Grefenstette JJ (1988) Genetic algorithms in noisy environments. Mach Learn 3:101–120 Fitzpatrick JM, Grefenstette JJ (1988) Genetic algorithms in noisy environments. Mach Learn 3:101–120
Zurück zum Zitat Gierer A, Berking S, Bode H, David CN, Flick K, Hansmann G, Schaller H, Trenkner E (1972) Regeneration of hydra from reaggregated cells. Nat New Biol 239:98–101CrossRef Gierer A, Berking S, Bode H, David CN, Flick K, Hansmann G, Schaller H, Trenkner E (1972) Regeneration of hydra from reaggregated cells. Nat New Biol 239:98–101CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Hammel U, Bäck T (1994) Evolution strategies on noisy functions: How to improve convergence properties. In: Davidor Y, Schwefel HP, Männer R (eds) Proceedings of the international conference on evolutionary computation, the third conference on parallel problem solving from nature (PPSN III), vol 866. Springer, Jerusalem, pp 159–168. http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/hammel94evolution.html Hammel U, Bäck T (1994) Evolution strategies on noisy functions: How to improve convergence properties. In: Davidor Y, Schwefel HP, Männer R (eds) Proceedings of the international conference on evolutionary computation, the third conference on parallel problem solving from nature (PPSN III), vol 866. Springer, Jerusalem, pp 159–168. http://​citeseer.​ist.​psu.​edu/​hammel94evolutio​n.​html
Zurück zum Zitat Herbster M (2001) Learning additive models online with fast evaluating kernels. In: Proceedings of the 14th annual conference on computational learning theory and and 5th European conference on computational learning theory. LNCS, vol 2111. Springer, New York, pp 444–460 Herbster M (2001) Learning additive models online with fast evaluating kernels. In: Proceedings of the 14th annual conference on computational learning theory and and 5th European conference on computational learning theory. LNCS, vol 2111. Springer, New York, pp 444–460
Zurück zum Zitat Herrmann J (1999) A genetic algorithm for minimax optimization problems. In: Proceedings of the Congress on evolutionary computation, vol 2, pp 1099–1103 Herrmann J (1999) A genetic algorithm for minimax optimization problems. In: Proceedings of the Congress on evolutionary computation, vol 2, pp 1099–1103
Zurück zum Zitat Huynen M, Stadler P, Fontana W (1996) Smoothness within ruggedness: the role of neutrality in adaptation Huynen M, Stadler P, Fontana W (1996) Smoothness within ruggedness: the role of neutrality in adaptation
Zurück zum Zitat Imamura K, Soule T, Heckendorn R, Foster J (2003) Behavioral diversity and a probabilistically optimal GP ensemble. Genet Program Evolvable Mach 4:235–253CrossRef Imamura K, Soule T, Heckendorn R, Foster J (2003) Behavioral diversity and a probabilistically optimal GP ensemble. Genet Program Evolvable Mach 4:235–253CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Ito T, Iba H, Kimura M (1996) Robustness of robot programs generated by genetic programming. In: Koza JR, Goldberg DE, Fogel DB, Riolo RL (eds) Genetic Programming 1996: Proceedings of the first annual conference. MIT Press, Stanford University, California, pp 321–326 Ito T, Iba H, Kimura M (1996) Robustness of robot programs generated by genetic programming. In: Koza JR, Goldberg DE, Fogel DB, Riolo RL (eds) Genetic Programming 1996: Proceedings of the first annual conference. MIT Press, Stanford University, California, pp 321–326
Zurück zum Zitat Kitamo H (2001) Foundations of systems biology. MIT Press, Cambridge. ISBN: 0-262-11266-3 Kitamo H (2001) Foundations of systems biology. MIT Press, Cambridge. ISBN: 0-262-11266-3
Zurück zum Zitat Kittler J, Roli F (2001) Multiple classifier systems. In: Proceedings of 2nd international workshop, MCS2001. Springer-Verlag, New York Kittler J, Roli F (2001) Multiple classifier systems. In: Proceedings of 2nd international workshop, MCS2001. Springer-Verlag, New York
Zurück zum Zitat Kuscu I (1998) Promoting generalization of learned behaviours in genetic programming. In: Eiben AE, Back T, Schoenauer M, Schwefel HP (eds) Fifth international conference on parallel problem solving from nature. LNCS, vol 1498. Springer-Verlag, Amsterdam, pp 491–500 Kuscu I (1998) Promoting generalization of learned behaviours in genetic programming. In: Eiben AE, Back T, Schoenauer M, Schwefel HP (eds) Fifth international conference on parallel problem solving from nature. LNCS, vol 1498. Springer-Verlag, Amsterdam, pp 491–500
Zurück zum Zitat Kushchu I (2002) Genetic programming and evolutionary generalization. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 6(5):431–442CrossRef Kushchu I (2002) Genetic programming and evolutionary generalization. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 6(5):431–442CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Lowenstein R (2002) When genius failed. Fourth Estate Lowenstein R (2002) When genius failed. Fourth Estate
Zurück zum Zitat Miller JF (2004) Evolving a self-repairing, self-regulating, french flag organism. In: GECCO 2004, pp 129–139 Miller JF (2004) Evolving a self-repairing, self-regulating, french flag organism. In: GECCO 2004, pp 129–139
Zurück zum Zitat Miller BL, Goldberg DE (1996) Genetic algorithms, selection scheme, and the varying effect of noise. Evol Comput 4(2):113–131CrossRef Miller BL, Goldberg DE (1996) Genetic algorithms, selection scheme, and the varying effect of noise. Evol Comput 4(2):113–131CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Moore FW, Garcia ON (1997) A new methodology for reducing brittleness in genetic programming. In: Proceedings of the National Aerospace and Electronics 1997 conferences, NAECON-97 Moore FW, Garcia ON (1997) A new methodology for reducing brittleness in genetic programming. In: Proceedings of the National Aerospace and Electronics 1997 conferences, NAECON-97
Zurück zum Zitat Nissen V, Propach J (1998) On the robustness of population-based versus point-based optimisation in the presence of noise. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 2(3):107–119 Nissen V, Propach J (1998) On the robustness of population-based versus point-based optimisation in the presence of noise. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 2(3):107–119
Zurück zum Zitat Panait L, Luke S (2003) Methods for evolving robust programs. In: Genetic and evolutionary computation—GECCO 2003. LNCS, vol 2724. Springer, New York, pp 1740–1751 Panait L, Luke S (2003) Methods for evolving robust programs. In: Genetic and evolutionary computation—GECCO 2003. LNCS, vol 2724. Springer, New York, pp 1740–1751
Zurück zum Zitat Ranawana R, Palade V (2006) Multi-classifier systems: review and a roadmap for developers. Int J Hybrid Intell Syst 3(1):35–61MATH Ranawana R, Palade V (2006) Multi-classifier systems: review and a roadmap for developers. Int J Hybrid Intell Syst 3(1):35–61MATH
Zurück zum Zitat Reynolds CW (1992) An evolved, vision-based behavioral model of coordinated group motion. In: Meyer JA, Wilson SW (eds) From animals to animats (Proceedings of simulation of adaptive behaviour). MIT Press, Cambridge Reynolds CW (1992) An evolved, vision-based behavioral model of coordinated group motion. In: Meyer JA, Wilson SW (eds) From animals to animats (Proceedings of simulation of adaptive behaviour). MIT Press, Cambridge
Zurück zum Zitat Rosca J (1996) Generality versus size in genetic programming. In: Koza JR, Goldberg DE, Fogel DB, Riolo RL (eds) Genetic Programming 1996: Proceedings of the first annual conference. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 381–387 Rosca J (1996) Generality versus size in genetic programming. In: Koza JR, Goldberg DE, Fogel DB, Riolo RL (eds) Genetic Programming 1996: Proceedings of the first annual conference. MIT Press, Cambridge, pp 381–387
Zurück zum Zitat Soule T (2003) Operator choice and the evolution of robust solutions. In: Riolo RL, Worzel B (eds) Genetic programming theory and practise, chap 16. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 257–270 Soule T (2003) Operator choice and the evolution of robust solutions. In: Riolo RL, Worzel B (eds) Genetic programming theory and practise, chap 16. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 257–270
Zurück zum Zitat Soule T, Heckendorn RB, Shen J (2002) Solution stability in evolutionary computation. In: Cicekli N (ed) ISCIS XVII seventeenth international symposium on computer and information sciences. CRC Press, University of Central Florida, Orlando, pp 237–241 Soule T, Heckendorn RB, Shen J (2002) Solution stability in evolutionary computation. In: Cicekli N (ed) ISCIS XVII seventeenth international symposium on computer and information sciences. CRC Press, University of Central Florida, Orlando, pp 237–241
Zurück zum Zitat Stefano CD, Cioppa AD, Marcelli A (2003) Exploiting reliability for dynamic selection of classifiers by means of genetic algorithms. In: ICDAR ’03: Proceedings of the seventh international conference on document analysis and recognition. IEEE Computer Society, Washington, pp 671–675 Stefano CD, Cioppa AD, Marcelli A (2003) Exploiting reliability for dynamic selection of classifiers by means of genetic algorithms. In: ICDAR ’03: Proceedings of the seventh international conference on document analysis and recognition. IEEE Computer Society, Washington, pp 671–675
Zurück zum Zitat Tsutsui S, Ghosh A (1997) Genetic algorithms with a robust solution searching scheme. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 1(3):201–208CrossRef Tsutsui S, Ghosh A (1997) Genetic algorithms with a robust solution searching scheme. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 1(3):201–208CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Wagner A (2005) Robustness and evolvability in living systems. Princeton University Press, Princeton Wagner A (2005) Robustness and evolvability in living systems. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Zurück zum Zitat Zhu M, Chipman H (2006) Darwinian evolution in parallel universes: a parallel genetic algorithm for variable selection. Technometrics 48(4):491–502CrossRefMathSciNet Zhu M, Chipman H (2006) Darwinian evolution in parallel universes: a parallel genetic algorithm for variable selection. Technometrics 48(4):491–502CrossRefMathSciNet
Metadaten
Titel
Evolving robust GP solutions for hedge fund stock selection in emerging markets
verfasst von
Wei Yan
Christopher D. Clack
Publikationsdatum
01.01.2011
Verlag
Springer-Verlag
Erschienen in
Soft Computing / Ausgabe 1/2011
Print ISSN: 1432-7643
Elektronische ISSN: 1433-7479
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-009-0511-4

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2011

Soft Computing 1/2011 Zur Ausgabe