From a Climate of Complexity to Sustainable Peace: Viability Transformations and Adaptive Governance in the Anthropocene

In an increasingly interconnected climate of complexity, the stabilization of human–environment interactions is a major challenge in international relations and demands the integration of complexity science with global governance. This chapter highlights several cases of complex crises where cascading events affect international stability. Climate change is considered as a risk multiplier which disturbs the balance between natural and social systems and amplifies the consequences through complex impact chains that affect the functioning of critical infrastructures and supply networks; intensify the nexus of water, energy and food; lead to production losses, price increases and financial crises in other regions through global markets; undermine human security, social living conditions and political stability; and trigger or aggravate migration movements and conflict situations. An integrative framework of human–environment interaction is used to analyse destabilizing developments, tipping elements and cascading risks, as well as concepts of resilience, viability and sustainable peace. Whether climate stress fuels a cycle of violence or climate policy drives a transition towards a cycle of cooperation and sustainable peace depends on the human and societal responses. Strategies for viability transformations and adaptive governance range from climate mitigation and adaptation and the building of social networks to new capabilities of disaster management, crisis prevention and conflict resolution. Several examples are presented showing how transition and transformation processes can be analysed with an agent-based model framework.