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2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

11. Global Change and the Food System in 2050

verfasst von : Thomas W. Hertel, Uris Lantz C. Baldos

Erschienen in: Global Change and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter seeks to draw together many of the diverse threads developed in the preceding chapters and reach some general conclusions about land use change, associated greenhouse gas emissions, food prices and caloric malnutrition in 2050. We begin by validating the SIMPLE model over the historical period: 1961–2006. This involves comparing model predictions with observed outcomes. We also consider how alternative restrictions on the economic responses in the model affect these predictions. This provides us with a guide to uncovering the ‘error signatures’ of many commonly used models of global agriculture which abstract from one or more key economic responses to global scarcity. With this foundation, we move on to projections for the 2006–2050 period. Here, we decompose the drivers of global change, including population, income and productivity growth, and their impact on key sustainability metrics. Based on this work, we expect continuing, although perhaps slowing, cropland conversion, along with flat to declining crop prices given anticipated trends in agricultural productivity. Meanwhile, strong income growth is expected to lead to sharp reductions in malnutrition, which will be further facilitated by greater global integration in agricultural markets.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Food Security and Nutrition

This section draws heavily on Baldos and Hertel (2013).

Since it is confusing to report results going backwards in time, and since we do not have a full set of data for parameterizing the model in 1961, we first simulate the model back to 1961 to establish a benchmark economy for that year, and then we simulate the model forward again (reversing the shocks) to reach 2006. The results from the latter simulation are what we report here.

We use in this section the original version of SIMPLE in which there a just five demand regions and seven crop supply regions. Since we also assume perfectly integrated world markets (an assumption which will be relaxed in the next section), it is not necessary to match demand with supply regions. Later we will discuss a variant of the model which features segmented markets. In this case, supply and demand are matched for each 15 geographic regions.

This classification of countries by per capita income follows World Bank conventions. Over time, countries may graduate to higher income levels. For our purposes, we focus on their classification as of 2001.

It should be noted that this version of SIMPLE was ‘tuned’ on two key dimensions of the global food economy over the 5 year period from 2001 to 2006, prior to undertaking this 45 year historical validation experiment. First, the unobserved intensification parameters in the livestock sector is calibrated due to lack of robust estimates in the literature. We focus on the high income region, which is deemed to be most representative of future developments in the livestock industry and we then select the substitution parameter which best fits the data on feed input use for this region, over the 2001–2006 period. This same value is subsequently assigned to all demand regions. Secondly, the regression estimates of the income and price elasticities (see Appendix C) are adjusted by re-estimating the linear regressions of the demand elasticities with per capita incomes using deflated per capita incomes (divided by a factor of 4). In the initial calibration effort, the simulated change in global crop demand for food (10.9 %) is nearly one-quarter greater than the historical change (around 8.8 %). This adjustment closes this gap by dampening the magnitude of the regression intercepts while maintaining the values of the regression slopes.

This section draws heavily on Hertel et al. (2014).

This section draws heavily on Baldos and Hertel (2014, 2015).

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Titel: Global Change and the Food System in 2050
verfasst von: Thomas W. Hertel
Uris Lantz C. Baldos
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Global Change and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-22661-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-22662-0

Copyright-Jahr: 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22662-0_11

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