1. Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

This chapter aims to provide a succinct integration of the projected warming the earth is likely to experience in the decades ahead, the emission reductions that may be needed to constrain this warming, and the technologies needed to help achieve these emission reductions. Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving CO₂ emissions, how different emission trajectories could affect warming this century, a sector-by-sector summary of mitigation options, and R&D priorities. It is concluded that it is too late too avoid substantial warming; the best result that appears achievable, would be to constrain warming to about 2°C (range of 1.3–2.7°C) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. In order to constrain warming to such a level, the current annual 3% CO₂ emission growth rate needs to transform rapidly to an annual decrease rate of from 2% to 3% for decades. Further, the current generation of energy generation and end use technologies are capable of achieving less than half of the emission reduction needed for such a major mitigation program. New technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate, especially for the key power generation and transportation sectors. Current energy technology research, development, demonstration and deployment programs fall far short of what is required.