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2014 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. Global Discussion of Biofuels and Food Security

verfasst von : Tatsuji Koizumi

Erschienen in: Biofuels and Food Security

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Food price hikes and biofuel expansion occurred all over the world from 2006 to 2008. Some agricultural and other specialists warned that biofuel expansion caused increases in agricultural commodity and food prices. There was a critical argument that global food-based biofuels may have a negative impact on food security on a global level. The author conducted research on how biofuel policy can impact on agricultural markets by utilizing economic models. As a result of the analysis for the Brazilian bioethanol policy, it was demonstrated that Brazil’s bioethanol policy has a floor price effect for the international sugar price and the increasing the anhydrous bioethanol blend ratio can play a role in reducing domestic sugar price instability. The analysis for the Brazilian biodiesel policy shows that the increasing biodiesel blend ratio will not always have a negative impact on the agricultural and food markets. The analysis of biofuel imports shows that the expansion of Chinese and Japanese bioethanol imports from Brazil could have an impact on world sugar markets. The analysis for the U.S. bioethanol impact on world corn markets shows that the U.S. bioethanol consumption could affect world corn prices by 22.2–37.4 %.

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Fußnoten
1
Please see Fig. 7.3 (Chap.​ 7).
 
2
It translates into a 1 USD per gallon increases in the price of conventional regular gasoline.
 
3
As for more detailed studies, please refer to Koizumi and Ohga [30].
 
4
The world raw sugar price was deflated in finished goods total, according to the Producer Price Index from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States Department of Labor.
 
5
The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks during mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy source (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B). The A2 scenario assumes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in a continuously increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented, and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other scenarios. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population that peaks mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 story line, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The B2 story line and scenario family describes a world in which emphasis is placed on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability [31].
 
6
As for more detailed studies, please refer to Koizumi [34].
 
7
Interviewed from Presidência da República, Barsil (March 2011).
 
8
As for more detailed studies, please refer to Koizumi [36].
 
9
Freight from Brazil to China, including insurance, is 0.21 US$/ℓ, estimated from Sao Paulo Esalq and 1.9 DT Chemical tanker. The tariff equivalent is 0.1235 US$/ℓ (Tariff rate 2207.1 0–1 90).
 
10
As for more detailed studies, please refer to Koizumi [37].
 
11
It is hypothesized that Japan will import 3 million kℓ of Brazilian bioethanol for thermal power generation if technical and transportation problems are resolved via cooperation between Japan and Brazil.
 
12
As for more detailed studies, please refer to Koizumi [39].
 
13
As for more detailed studies, please refer to Koizumi and Ohga [42].
 
Literatur
18.
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21.
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22.
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27.
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28.
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30.
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31.
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35.
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36.
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37.
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38.
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39.
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40.
Zurück zum Zitat Koizumi T, Ohga K (2006) Impacts of the Chinese fuel-ethanol program on the world corn markets: an econometric simulation approach. Jpn J Rural Econ 8:26–40 Koizumi T, Ohga K (2006) Impacts of the Chinese fuel-ethanol program on the world corn markets: an econometric simulation approach. Jpn J Rural Econ 8:26–40
42.
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Metadaten
Titel
Global Discussion of Biofuels and Food Security
verfasst von
Tatsuji Koizumi
Copyright-Jahr
2014
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05645-6_6