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2017 | Buch

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Indicator-Based Monitoring of Regional Economic Integration

Fourth World Report on Regional Integration

herausgegeben von: Philippe De Lombaerde, Edgar J. Saucedo Acosta

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : United Nations University Series on Regionalism

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

This volume brings together experts from different world regions. It presents various experiences with building indicator systems for monitoring the implementation of regional economic integration policies such as preferential trade areas, common markets or economic and monetary unions. The volume discusses both the technical and governance aspects of such systems, and best practices. The regional experiences that are covered include: the European Union, Eurasia, ASEAN, the East African Community (EAC), COMESA, CARICOM, the African-Caribbean-Pacific Group, and the Americas. In addition, various chapters discuss cross-cutting methodological challenges related to trade-related indicators.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Europe and Eurasia

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. The European Commission Single Market Scoreboard

Abstract

The authors offer a comprehensive picture of the European Commission’s Internal Market Scoreboard. The Scoreboard is used to monitor the performance of Member States with regards to the transposition of Internal Market law. The Scoreboard and its indicators have been adapted throughout the years, and today it is one of the many soft power tools that the Commission uses to promote compliance and avoid lengthy infringement proceedings. The authors analyze the impact of the Scoreboard on Member State compliance. They find that while the scores for transposition of EU law have been at record-high, other indicators’ results remain stagnant. The authors also discuss the usefulness of the Scoreboard for academic research.

Vanessa Fernández Moriana, Alexandra Melissa Vida, Philippe De Lombaerde

Chapter 2. Scoreboard for the Surveillance of Macroeconomic Imbalances in the European Union

Abstract

This chapter focuses on tools to counter macro-economic imbalances in the EU. The economic and financial crises have revealed the limits of the original EMU surveillance tools. To prevent and correct macro-economic balances, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) was adopted. In this chapter, the authors present an overview of the MIP, its Alert Mechanism, and the rationale behind the indicators. The scoreboard is included in the yearly Alert Mechanism Report (AMR), which serves, inter alia, as a basis for the Commission to draw a list of Member States that are subject for an in-depth review. The authors notice that the number of countries that are in the list has not decreased over the years because of external sustainability issues, export performance and competitiveness, private sector indebtedness, and housing and asset markets issues. Yet, there have been improvements in terms of deficits, gains of price and non-price competitiveness, and the export performance is more homogeneous. Private debt stocks persist and unemployment seems to have increased.

Carlos Cuerpo, Jonas Fischer

Chapter 3. The EU Index of Integration Effort

Abstract

Diverging integration efforts or capacities may lead to more economic heterogeneity among countries, thereby challenging present and future steps of European integration. This is why the author measures the general integration efforts of the EU Member States by elaborating composite indicators. There are four dimensions to the indicators: acquis communautaire (measured by “EU Compliance”), Single Market integration (“EU Openness and EU Importance”), Economic and Monetary Union (“EU Symmetry”), and finally, economic convergence (“EU Homogeneity”). The results of the index (based on data for the post-2000 period) indicate an improvement in most of the dimensions, whereas economic convergence has slightly decreased. The analysis reveals that the EU has evolved into a multi-speed Europe, where there are relatively homogenous groups of countries (the core group, EMU opt-outs, CEECs and GIIPS) within a heterogeneous setting.

Jörg König

Chapter 4. Integration Profiles for Central Europe and Hungary

Abstract

The authors perform an analysis of the degree of economic integration of Hungary and Central Europe in order to compare their position with the rest of Europe. The analysis of economic integration is based on six indicators: integrated trade intensity, structure of trade and competitiveness, balance of trade, intensity of factor market and trans-nationalization of the company sector, sub-regional connectedness, and convergence. The authors found that Hungary and the Central European countries are highly integrated with the rest of Europe in the area of trade. They have reduced the productivity gap between 1998 and 2008, and they gained trade surpluses with the rest of Europe and the world. In addition, Hungary is characterized by very high capital integration, and most of its foreign direct investment (FDI) comes from Germany, The Netherlands and Austria. It is gradually entering the EMU and is fully part of the Single Market. Therefore, due to this high level of connectedness, the authors believe that Hungary and the Central European periphery has got closer to the Centre.

Tibor Palankai, Gabor Miklos

Chapter 5. The EDB System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration: Eurasian Integration’s Trends from 1999 to 2012

Abstract

This chapter presents the Eurasian Development Bank System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration (SIEI). The SIEI was created to monitor the economic integration of countries and groups of countries in the post-Soviet space. The system is built around indicators of regional integration in trade, labour migration, electricity (electric power), agriculture and education to assess the level and dynamics of market integration. The authors also offer a summary of the outcomes of the two SIEI published so far (2009 and 2014). After presenting a consolidated index for 12 countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, it seems on the one hand that the level of integration has decreased. On the other hand, EurAsEC-5 has become more integrated in the last decade. However, from 2009 to 2012 the trends have inversed. In terms of countries, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Tajikistan have taken the lead of integration, strongly contrasting with Russia and Moldova.

Evgeny Vinokurov, Alexander Libman, Vladimir Pereboyev

The Americas and the Caribbean

Frontmatter

Chapter 6. Measuring Integration Achievement in the Americas

Abstract

In this chapter an updated version is presented of the Integration Achievement Score (IAS) that was initially designed by Hufbauer and Schott (Western hemisphere economic integration. Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, 1994). The author expanded the scope of the original IAS in both time and space, and has systematically applied it to regional integration schemes in the Americas with data from the 2000s. Because of its systematic nature of coding integration achievements, it allows for comparisons between the regional schemes; it is also well suited for further econometric analysis. It contains six categories with six levels each. The categories are: trade in goods and services, free movement of capital, labor mobility, decision-making of supranational institutions, monetary coordination, and fiscal coordination. Moreover; the levels for each regional scheme are calculated with a set of values that range from 0 to 5. Results are presented for five schemes in the Americas (CAN, CACM, CARICOM, MERCOSUR, NAFTA) which allow for a comparison of economic integration levels.

Gaspare M. Genna

Chapter 7. Monitoring Regional Integration in Practice: Reflections from the EU-CARIFORUM Economic Partnership Agreement

Abstract

The authors present a study of the problems faced by monitoring the EU-CARIFORUM Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), an agreement that was signed between the EU and the CARICOM in 2007. By showing current monitoring efforts in the Caribbean region, the authors explain the challenges that must be addressed, such as monitoring compliance or development impacts. From their analysis, the authors extract the following lessons: First, analyzing the political, historical and economic contexts is key to determine the state of regional integration. Second, regional monitoring systems can be seen as a useful tool for national governments. Third, the monitoring exercise should be flexible enough in regards to countries with different characteristics. Fourth, the monitoring system must begin with a modest ambition. Finally, the authors emphasize that the design of an EPA monitoring systems requires consideration of objectives, scope, actors and institutions, as well as methodology.

Bruce Byiers, Quentin de Roquefeuil

Chapter 8. Comparing Integration in Europe and Latin America: Wishful Thinking, Self-Perception and Reality – A Comment

Abstract

In this chapter the author compares the European integration process and the ambivalent integration dynamics in Latin America, and ponders on whether the EU can still be considered as a model for Latin American integration. The author notes that differences in the two regions in terms of geography, history and political regimes – presidentialism prevails in Latin America – are all reasons why it is inherently difficult to compare them. However, he argues that despite these inter-regional differences and the EU’s own internal challenges, the European model still has value for Latin America.

Joaquín Roy

Africa

Frontmatter

Chapter 9. Assessing Regional Integration in Africa (ARIA): Indicators of Integration Effort in Africa

Abstract

The author presents the indicators developed in the context of the “Assessing Regional Integration in Africa” (ARIA) project, conducted by the Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). ARIA’s goal, and therefore the indicators’ objective, is to assess the progress of regional integration overtime across the continent, countries, and Regional Economic Communities (REC)s. The indicators are grouped in eight clusters: human development and labour market integration, trade and market integration, monetary, fiscal and financial integration, energy, food security, transport and communications infrastructure, industrial production and consumption, and regional commons. Then, a weighted composite integration index is calculated that measures relative performance of the RECs within the continent. The author finds that the progress of regional integration in Africa is differentiated between RECs and sectors. On the one hand, success in the RECs is observed in the member states that have implemented effective integration programs. On the other hand, the sectors of trade and communications have had most advances.

Daniel Tanoe

Chapter 10. Monitoring Regional Integration in the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) Regions

Abstract

The author assesses the Monitoring Regional Integration (MRI) project in ACP sub-regions. The aim of the EU-funded monitoring project was to increase collaboration among regional integration organizations of the ACP countries in order to build a common system of indicators of regional integration. The system includes the following dimensions: regional governance, economic integration, functional cooperation and social integration. For each of the dimensions, a composite index is constructed for monitoring progress in regional integration, which subsequently allows for the calculation of an overall composite index of regional integration. However, the author points to the difficulties of developing the latter index because of technical difficulties and the complexity (and multidimensionality) of the regional integration processes. The author concludes that key factors for the sustainability of a monitoring system include its size, cost, objective and user ownership.

Jean-Michel Salmon

Chapter 11. The East African Community Common Market Scorecard

Abstract

The authors present and assess the EAC Common Market Scorecard (CMS) which was published in 2014 for the first time by the World Bank Group in collaboration with the EAC Secretariat. The EAC-CMS is part of the implementation process of the EAC Common Market Protocol, which came into force in 2010, and seeks to monitor how EAC member states have been undertaking measures to review their domestic regulatory environments to ensure compliance with the Protocol and bring the resulting business environment towards a common (and upgraded) regional standard. The authors present a preliminary assessment of the scorecard. They look at its purpose and scope, methodological framework (including data collection and validation), governance and stakeholder structure, communication and reporting aspects, and perspectives for the future.

Alfred Ombudo K’Ombudo, Philippe De Lombaerde, Maria Borda

Chapter 12. Assessing Regional Integration at the Country Level: A Possible Framework as Illustrated for the COMESA Region

Abstract

African countries are in various stages of forming regional unions ranging from free trade area to customs union to monetary union. In this process they are receiving supportive financial and technical assistance from their development partners such as the EU. The author develops a Performance Assessment Framework (PAF), focused on trade integration, to assess individual countries performance over time in their integration efforts in the context of the regionally agreed integration objectives. The PAF is based on a comprehensive set of indicators covering areas of Connectivity, Communication, Commerce, Sustainability and Productivity. These indicators are then categorized within their respective intervention areas such as, but not limited to, monitoring mechanism, consolidating the internal market, operationalizing the customs union, trade in services, common competition policy, FDI and domestic investment, transport facilitation instruments, and macroeconomic stability. The regional program objectives for these indicators are capsulated under these areas in a Regional Integration Implementation Program (RIIP), while the individual countries choose the sequencing and timing for actions to realize those objectives and elucidate them in their respective annual implementation programs. Country performance is assessed by comparing outcome with objectives (expressed as percentage) for indicators included in the country program. An average of all these outcomes can be taken as indicative of overall performance and can be used as a monitoring tool by national authorities. It can also serve as an objective basis for disbursing relevant aid funds. The PAF so described is then elucidated by a proposal to assess regional integration process in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) region.

Rattan J. Bhatia

Asia

Frontmatter

Chapter 13. Monitoring the ASEAN Economic Community

Abstract

The author offers a study on existing ASEAN monitoring systems, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Scorecard and the ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS). He analyzes the compliance monitoring system, based on the information of the AEC Scorecard, and the outcome-based monitoring system, established from ACPMS. Monitoring compliance comes from collecting information on the ratification, adoption and implementation of regional legislation and administrative acts. According to the author, the AEC Scorecard promotes compliance in itself; it can only assess the process of integration. However, the ACPMS measures the outcomes through a set of indicators that are adapted throughout the years, and releases a statistical report, the ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System. The author finds that, despite advances in the realm of AEC, many challenges persist. The author concludes with several proposals for improvement.

Aladdin D. Rillo

Methodology

Frontmatter

Chapter 14. Opening the Black Box of Trade Agreements

Abstract

In this chapter the author presents a coding methodology to capture the heterogeneity of trade agreements and to facilitate quantitative analysis departing from qualitative legal differences in trade agreements. The coding is based on whether the provisions of the World Trade Organization (WTO) are covered by free trade agreements, as well as whether they are legally enforceable. Then, the author offers a heterogeneity index that is used to analyze the content of a trade agreement. The index can be used in gravity models to estimate the effect of FTAs on trade.

Tristan Kohl

Chapter 15. Assessing Globalization and Regionalization Through Network Indices

Abstract

The authors use network analysis (NA) in order to study the impact of globalization and regionalization on the entire structure of trade flows. NA focuses on trade flows as a network, therefore emphasizing the relationship between countries – the nodes – and the network structure itself. According to the authors, this approach is particularly fit to offer a unified view of the system’s properties, help develop trade policies, and analyze changes in the world trading system. This is why the authors present the changes in the trade networks by studying indices that describe the network’s characteristics: density, closeness, betweenness and degree distribution. The authors conclude that network completeness is indeed achieved in some sub-regional components; however the level of heterogeneity between countries has increased.

P. Lelio Iapadre, Lucia Tajoli

Chapter 16. Measuring Actual Economic Integration: A Bayesian State-Space Approach

Abstract

The authors construct an indicator of regional integration based on a Bayesian state-space approach. The state-space model is helpful in estimating the overall level of regional integration by using all information contained in a set of indicators. The authors apply this model to the level of regional integration between members of the OECD. The variables of the level of regional integration – i.e. the Current Economic Integration (AEI) (Mongelli FP, Dorrucci E, Agur I, What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration. European Central Bank Occasional Paper Series 40, 2005) – are standardized and organized in four groups: flows of goods, flows of services, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and other financial flows, and migration. The AEI can also be used to construct a weighted directed network. By observing the weighted directed network, the authors found that the core players in the OECD are the US, Germany and the United Kingdom, and in second place, France, Italy and Japan. Finally, they conclude that the level of economic integration among OECD members has increased over the last 20 years, and that the European integration agreements and the NAFTA have had positive effects on economic integration.

Glenn Rayp, Samuel Standaert

Titel: Indicator-Based Monitoring of Regional Economic Integration
herausgegeben von: Philippe De Lombaerde
Edgar J. Saucedo Acosta
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-50860-3
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-50858-0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50860-3