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1984 | Buch

Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Interactive Decision Analysis

Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence Held at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria September 20–23, 1983

herausgegeben von: Dr. M. Grauer, Prof. A. P. Wierzbicki

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Buchreihe : Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

Enthalten in: Professional Book Archive

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Über dieses Buch

During the week of September 20-23, 1983, an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. More than fifty scientists representing seventeen coun­ tries participated. The aim of the Workshop was to review existing approaches to problems involving multiple conflicting objectives, to look at methods and techniques for interactive decision analysis, and to demonstrate theuse of existing interactive decision-support systems. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social problems thatface the world today. Research in decision-support systems also has another, less tangible but possibly more important, motivation. The development of efficient sys­ tems for decision support requires a thorough understanding of the dif­ ferences between the decision-making processes in different nations and cultures. An understanding of the different rationales underlying decision making is not only necessary for the development of efficient decision­ support systems, but is also an important factor in encouraging inter­ national understanding and cooperation.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Introductory Lecture

Frontmatter
Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence
Summary
This paper presents a unifying approach to the issue of using computers and computerized mathematical models for decision analysis and support. The interpretative aspect of computer intelligence is an essential part of this approach; this paper presents a mathematical formalization of this aspect. Another essential part of this approach is a proposal to integrate the three major formalized frameworks for rational decision making: utility theory (mostly normative), aspiration theory (mostly behavioral), and the (mostly hierarchical) theory of goal- and program-oriented management. These two elements lead to the formulation of principles for a broad class of decision support systems, which includes many existing systems but which also opens new possibilities. Two main cases of decision support are discussed: joint decision making (i.e., involving only one decision maker or several decision makers who have to reach a consensus) and independent decision making (assuming a game-like situation with several decision makers). These cases are illustrated by reference to the DIDASS system, its applications and extensions.
A. Wierzbicki

Approaches and Concepts in Interactive Decision Analysis

Frontmatter
DIDASS — Theory, Implementation and Experiences
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to report on the progress made in the System and Decision Sciences (SDS) research group at IIASA on the development of the decision support system DIDASS (Dynamic Interactive Decision Analysis and Support System). This system is based on methodology derived from the paradigm of satisficing decision making and the methodology of linear and nonlinear programming. The mathematical background to this approach (based on aspiration formation and the concept of scalarizing functions) is outlined in Section 2. Methods of implementation and computational aspects are discussed in Section 3. The fourth section summarizes three applications of DIDASS, and the paper ends with some conclusions.
M. Grauer, A. Lewandowski, A. Wierzbicki
Handling Conflicts in Fuzzy Multiple-Criteria Optimization
Abstract
Multiple criteria optimization is more and more accepted as the standard basis for problem solving tools and decision aids, as single criteria modelling in many cases has been proved to be a special case of some class of multiple criteria models. Multiple criteria imply multiple objectives, which in turn imply conflicts among the objectives — it is almost an axiom that there should be conflicts if we have many objectives. But conflicts are — or can be made — an asset in a management context: (i) conflicts can be dissolved by generating new alternatives or an ideal alternative; (ii) conflicts can be resolved through constructive compromises by reformulating or creating alternatives; (ii) conflicts can be solved by allowing a single objective to dominate temporarily, and (iv) conflicts can be neglected, contained, controlled and denied by various forms of power play.
Christer Carlsson
A Game-Theoretic Approach for Multicriteria Decision Making
Abstract
We address the following decision problem. We have to choose the “best” out of the alternatives A1,A2,...,Ar each of which is characterized numerically according to m criteria i.e. we have r m-vectors a 1,a 2,...,a r associated with the alternatives. We assume that larger values represent better ones for all criteria and only Pareto-optimal alternatives are considered.
Ferenc Forgó
The Systems Approach and Contingency View in Managerial Behavior and Management Organization
Abstract
Business management has played an important part in industrial society. Most social interactions are mediated by business. There are, however, diverse interest groups that take part in social interaction, each having its own goals and purposes. The managers should reconcile conflicts among interest groups to be able to carry out their policies and operating plans which are contingent to the situation. The managers with bounded rationality2 cannot reach the best policy, but they are making up better policies enough to satisfy the expectation of them. In those processes, to adapt to the environment effectively and efficiently, they should take advantage of systems approach and contingency view3 as managing tools. Here, we will inquire into these problems from the standpoint of methodology.
Nobuo Sugihara, Mitsugu Ichikawa
Recent Developments in our Approach to Multiple-Criteria Decision Making
Abstract
Approximately ten years ago we began a study of multiple criteria decision making at the European Insti tute for Advanced Studies in Management in Brussels. The project started as a way of finding a multiple objective linear programming method that would work better than those tested by Wallenius (1975). We did a substantial amount of work on the problem and came up with such a method (Zionts and Wallenius, 1976). Wallenius’ (1975) thesis, one of the first outputs of that project, comprises a rather significant piece of research in the multiple criteria area. Since that time our work has continued. We have worked together on a great deal of it; some of it has involved students and other faculty colleagues. In presenting this update, we make every effort to accurately attribute (and reference) each piece of research to the appropriate person(s). Though we have tried not to omit any references or acknowledgments, or both, we apologize in advance for any inadvertant omissions.
Stanley Zionts, Jyrki Wallenius
Interactive Structure Design and Simulation of Nonlinear Systems from a Multiobjective Viewpoint Using the Lotka-Volterra Approach
Abstract
Peschel and Mende (1981a,1981b,1982,1983) propose an interactive structure design principle which allows to represent an arbitrary system of (nonlinear) differential equations by a system of Lotka-Volterra equations. The structure design principle which is based on an ecological background offers a large degree of freedom so that one may choose between different representations in Volterra-form, depending on the aims of the problem. Choosing a suitable representation is consequently a problem of multiobjective decision making.
M. Peschel, F. Breitenecker
Hierarchical Model-Oriented System Organization
Abstract
The problems arising in such areas as agriculture, climate, and energy development are becoming increasingly complex. It is now impossible to model these problems adequately without using a set of mathematical models. For example, it is necessary to analyze both linear and nonlinear model variants, make iterative corrections, and investigate both static and dynamic aspects
V. Mazurik

Methods and Techniques for Interactive Decision Analysis

Frontmatter
Dual Relaxation and Branch-and-Bound Techniques for Multiobjective Optimization
Abstract
This paper is concerned with duality results for multi objective (m.o.) optimization problems. The core of the paper is a duality theorem derived by usual separation techniques. This theorem generalizes known results in view of the applications to m.o. problems, which are presented in Section 3.
Paolo Serafini
Levitin—Miljutin—Osmolovskii Conditions for Local Pareto Optimality
Abstract
The purpose of this talk is to show that the technique developed by Levitin, Miljutin and Osmolovskii (1974, 1978) can easily be applied to optimization problems with nonscalar valued objective functions.
Milan Vlach
Fuzzy Assessment of Multiattribute Utility Functions
Abstract
This paper is concerned with deriving fuzzy multiattribute utility functions (FMUF) based on extensions of the fuzzy set theory. The general procedure of assessing the MUF is composed of three steps; (i) evaluating unidimensional (single-attribute) utility functions (UNIF), (ii) assessing the scaling constants ki, K on them and (iii) obtaining representation forms of the MUFs. The step (i) corresponds to the lowest-level system’s decomposition in which preferential and utility independence among the attributes are assumed. In the step (ii), system’s coordination is executed from the societal point of view and value trade-off experiments among the attributes are performed. The step (iii) is simply concerned with formal representation and calculation of numerical (viz. cardinal) MUFs. This method has shown to be particularly useful for manipulating noncommensurateness and conflict of the multidimensional objective systems. The main limitation of this method is to neglect multiple agent problems. The evaluation is exclu­sively based on individual preferences of the single decision maker. The method ultimately have some individual assert a set of preference as “socially” desirable. Collective choice or group decision problems are not taken into considerations.
Fumiko Seo, Masatoshi Sakawa
Interactive Fuzzy Decision Making for Multiobjective Nonlinear Programming Problems
Abstract
An application of fuzzy approach to multiobjective linear programming (MOLP) problems was first presented by Zimmermann (1978) and further studied by Leberling (1981) and Hannan (1981). Following the maximizing decision proposed by Bellman and Zadeh (1970) together with linear, hyperbolic or piecewise linear membership functions, they proved that there exists an equivalent linear programming problem.
Masatoshi Sakawa
Satisficing Trade-off Method for Multiobjective Programming
Abstract
In recent years, many kinds of interactive optimization methods have been developed for solving multiobjective programming problems. Such interactive programming methods have also a role of the interface between men and computers. However, it seems that many of existing interactive optimization methods require too high degree of judgment to decision makers, and too large number of auxiliary optimizations to be applied to practical problem.
Hirotaka Nakayama, Yoshikazu Sawaragi
On Dialogue Algorithms for Linear and Nonlinear Vector Optimization from the Point of View of Parametric Optimization
Abstract
In treating vector optimization problems, dialogue methods play an ever increasing role (see e.g. R. Dupré et al /2/, A. Wierzbicki /1 1 /, A. Lewandowski et al /8/, S. Zionts et al /13 /).
Jürgen Guddat, Klaus Wendler
Operating Considerations Pertaining to the Interactive Weighted Tchebycheff Procedure
Abstract
The interactive weighted Tchebycheff method for solving the multiple objective program
$$ \begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {\max \{ {{\rm{f}}_1}({\rm{x}}) = {z_1}\} }\\ {\max \{ {{\rm{f}}_2}({\rm{x}}) = {z_2}\} }\\ .\\ .\\ .\\ {\max \{ {\rm{f(x) = }}{{\rm{z}}_{\rm{k}}}\} }\\ {{\rm{s}}.{\rm{t}}.{\rm{x}}\varepsilon {\rm{s}}} \end{array} $$
is described in [ll]and[12]. A multiple objective linear procrrammina appli-cation of the weighted Tchebycheff procedure is given in [10]. Multiple objective integer and multiple objective nonlinear programming applications are also possible with the Tchebycheff approach.
Ralph E. Steuer
A Posteriori Trade-off Analysis in Reference Point Approaches
Abstract
This paper is concerned with extensions to existing reference point methods for multiple objective decision making (MODM) through the incorporation of an a-posteriori trade-off analysis, i.e. an examination of the tradeoffs between objectives which are implied by a given, tentative solution to the problem under consideration. The term reference point method is used in this context to include both conventional goal programming approaches, where the reference point represents the decision maker’s actual aspiration levels (cf. Lee 1972; Ignizio 1976), and the more recent interactive procedures where the reference point is used as a primarily technical means of exploring the feasible region (Wierzbicki 1979a, 1979b; Lewandowski and Grauer 1982).
Eberhard E. Bischoff
A Visual Interactive Method for Solving the Multiple-Criteria Problem
Abstract
In this paper we propose an interactive method for solving multiple criteria decision problems with convex constraints and a pseudoconcave and differentiable utility function. The general framework of our method is similar to that of the so-called GDF method (Geoffrion, Dyer and Feinberg 1972). However, the Frank-Wolfe algorithm used by Geoffrion et al. does not operate solely with efficient solutions. Since comparisons between inefficient solutions may not seem relevant from the decision maker’s point of view, we use a modified gradient projection method instead of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm. However, instead of the gradient vector we use reference directions that reflect the decision maker’s preferences, as suggested by Andrzej Wierzbicki (1980), instead of trying to estimate the gradient. The reference directions are projected on the efficient surface and an interactive line search is performed. The values of the objectives on the efficient surface are displayed for the decision maker’s evaluation both numerically and graphically.
Pekka Korhonen, Jukka Laakso
On the Implementation of the Interactive Surrogate Worth Trade-off (ISWT) Method
Abstract
People who are not familiar with the multicriteria optimization theory often deal with multicriteria problems in the following way. One objective is taken as a single criteria to be optimized and some limits are set for the values of the other objectives. That is, the other objectives are treated as constraints in an ordinary optimization problem. After the optimization, a trade-off analysis may be carried out with respect to the active constraints. That is, the level of an active constraint — the limit of an objective — is changed a little and the optimization is done again to see how much the level of the optimized objective will change.
Kyösti Tarvainen

Applications of Interactive Decision Analysis

Frontmatter
Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Aid Budget Allocation
Abstract
The Energy Research Council of the Netherlands (with 18 members representing government agencies, research institutes, universities, industries, trade unions, consumer organizations, and environmental groups) has been established by the Minister of Economics and the Minister of Science, 28 January 1980, to draw up, among other things, energy-research plans for several years ahead. A major task of the Council is to advice the Ministers on the allocation of the available budget to various energy technologies.
K. Légrády, F. A. Lootsma, J. Meisner, F. Schellemans
Investment and Financial Planning in a General Partnership
Abstract
The paper presents an interactive decision support system in order to distribute cash dividends from the investment and finance activities of the firm to the partners of the firm according to their individual time preferences. We first introduce a basic multiple objective investment and finance planning model and indicate that several well-known models of investment and financial planning are members of the same class of compromise models for our basic multiple objective model. We then introduce an interactive decision support system for the indivudual as well as the collective decision process.
Heinz Isermann
A Multiobjective Expert System for Suppliers of Out-of-the-Money Options
Abstract
The proliferation of telecommunications and computing capability has sparked speculation about dispersing work. The electronic cottage industry approach has potential in the area of office and professional services. This paper proposes that certain functions of a centralized financial market can be decentralized. To relocate an element of an information processing system, its functions as well as its linkages must be duplicated. For that purpose, we draw on the theories of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM), artificial intelligence, and finance.
On the trading floors of the world’s options exchanges, people called market-makers provide liquidity; when a buyer cannot find a seller, or a seller cannot find a buyer, these functionaries sometimes fill that void by trading for their own account. The physically grueling work of transacting on the exchange floor is often delegated to lower level employees. These people act with supervision from senior people, or perhaps with a set of decision rules formulated by the suppliers of capital.
This paper will attempt to outline the features of an automated, remotely-sited system that emulates the market-making function which is normally performed on the site of centralized options exchanges. To make the task less formidable, I will concentrate on one very specialized market-making function, namely supplying uncovered out-of-the money options. The system is intended to promote useful communication between man and computer. Although it would be presumptuous to say that the system can learn, it can decide to query a human when certain conditions are present. From these situations, a richer array of decision rules will develop.
Joel N. Morse
A Multiple-Layer Model for Economic-Environmental-Energy Policy Analysis
Abstract
Economic-environmental-energy modelling has become increasingly complicated over the last decade. Systems-theoretic concepts, optimal control models and multidisciplinary analyses have become necessary tools for environmental-economic-energy analyses. There is a strong tendency towards more integrated policy analysis, in which economic — environmental — energy aspects are brought together in one coherent framework of a spatial context (see Lakshmanan and Nijkamp, 1980). This tendency towards integrated modelling is mainly caused by the fact that the post-war economic growth paradigm intertwined with technological, scientific and educational progress and rising population numbers, has neglected the social and ecological dimensions of this process and hence has led to a serious threat for the man-made and natural environment. This development does not only take place in the developed countries, but also in the Third World countries, especially in those areas where a rapid industrial expansion is not accompanied by monetary resources for environmental protection. Integrated planning and policy models are essentially necessary means to restore the balance in favour of more emphasis on environmental dimensions (cf. also Guldman and Shefer,1981).
Wim Hafkamp, Peter Nijkamp
Simulation of an Interactive Method Supporting Collective Decision Making Using a Regional Development Model
Abstract
This paper deals with a computerized interactive system which supports the making of collective decisions in a gaming framework. The basic idea of the system was proposed by Wierzbicki (1982), although several modifications have also been tested. The system has been implemented for a simple decision problem concerning the allocation of funds for regional development.
Zenon Fortuna, Lech Krus
A Multiobjective Observation Network Design Procedure and its Application in Hydrology and Mining
Abstract
In geosciences a large set of data has to be usually collected and its structure has to be examined. In many applications, the observations are very expensive. In the mining industry drillhole data are used for exploration, and in underground hydrology water well data are analysed for monitoring water quality parameters. The data examined in these applications are usually spread out in space or /and time, and they are considered as realizations of certain regionalized variables.
Ferenc Szidarovszky
Analysis of Regional Water Policies in Open-Cast Mining Areas — A Multicriteria Approach
Abstract
Within. the Institutions and Environmental Policies Program at IIASA, a project is underway which focuses on concepts, procedures, and methods in the area of resource and environmental policy analysis and design with special regard to groundwater management and protection strategies.
S. Kaden
Decision Support via Simulation for a Multipurpose Hydroenergetic System
Abstract
A program package for the simulation of a hydro-energetic multipurpose system consisting of dams, reservoirs, rivers and pumps is implemented within a hybrid simulation language. The aim of the program is to support decisions about the operation of these systems in an interactive and practical way. Few commands allow to define and examine the model automatically. Documentation can be done by usual features of the simulation language.
F. Breitenecker, A. Schmid
Multiobjective Analysis of Forestry Management Models using the Generalized Reachable set Method
Abstract
Regions with a significant wood-processing industry based on the presence of large local supplies of wood will necessarily experience a gradual reduction in forest reserves. A point may be reached at which there is a conflict between the industrial demand for raw materials and the need to reduce felling volume. This may eventually have to be resolved by importing timber into the region to supply the wood-processing industry with raw materials. It is clear that a more rational method of forestry management should be sought.
A. V. Lotov, H. M. Stolyarova
A Multiobjective Procedure for Project Formulation — Design of a Chemical Installation
Abstract
Industrial Development is a Strategic Management Decision Area which can be looked upon as a chain of hierarchical decision problems.
H. Górecki, J. Kopytowski, T. Ryś, M. Żebrowski
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Interactive Decision Analysis
herausgegeben von
Dr. M. Grauer
Prof. A. P. Wierzbicki
Copyright-Jahr
1984
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN
978-3-662-00184-4
Print ISBN
978-3-540-13354-4
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-00184-4