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2012 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

1. Introduction: Insurance and Its Economic Role

verfasst von : Prof. Dr. Peter Zweifel, Prof. Dr. Roland Eisen

Erschienen in: Insurance Economics

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

Uncertaintyis at the heart of insurance. This is already manifested in our limited knowledge about (observable) past events. In the “real” world all our activities depend on uncertain and unknown circumstances beyond the control of a single individual. Unambiguous, deterministic cause-effect relationships are replaced by ambiguity in the perception of the economic environment. With respect to the future, uncertainty looms still larger. However, it is possible to make forecasts about future events even with incomplete knowledge of past events.

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Nächstes Kapitel Risk: Measurement, Perception, and Management

One approach to the use of partial knowledge is the theory of fuzzy sets [see e.g. Negoita (1981)]. A more practical alternative is Linear Partial Information theory [see e.g. Kofler and Zweifel (1988)].

National Accounts include payments which are used to repair damages or are spent on consumption. However they do not enter into the insurance account but into repair services. The proposed modification thus leads to double counting.

Insurers sometimes erroneously claim to provide liquidity to the economy by freeing up cash that would otherwise be tied up as individual savings. However, insurers also need to hold part of their capital in liquid form. As Sinn (1988) points out, this is a case of fallacy of aggregation, i.e. on an incorrect inference from an individual to a macroeconomic phenomenon.

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Note that from lny = a + blnxone has dlny = b⋅dlnx. Since dlnxdx = 1 ∕ x, the percentage changes are given by dlnx = dx ∕ xand dlny = dy ∕ y, respectively. Therefore, \(b=\frac{dy}{y}/\frac{dx}{x}\), i.e. the regression coefficient bcorresponds to the income elasticity of premiums.

Titel: Introduction: Insurance and Its Economic Role
verfasst von: Prof. Dr. Peter Zweifel
Prof. Dr. Roland Eisen
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Buch: Insurance Economics
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-20547-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-642-20548-4

Copyright-Jahr: 2012
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20548-4_1