1. Introduction to the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment

Mountains are large landforms raised above the surface of the earth emerging into peaks and ranges. Mountains occupy 22% of the world’s land surface area and are home to about 13% of the world’s population (FAO 2015). While about 915 million people live in mountainous region, less than 150 million people live above 2,500 m above sea level (masl), and only 20–30 million people live above 3,000 masl.

About half of all humankind directly depends on mountain resources, primarily water. Mountains support 25% of world’s terrestrial biodiversity and include nearly half of the world’s biodiversity ‘hotspots’. Of the 20 plant species that supply 80% of the world’s food, six of those (apples, barley, maize, potatoes, sorghum and tomatoes) originated in mountains (Fleury 1999). In humid parts of the world, mountains provide 30–60% of the fresh water downstream; and in semi-arid and arid environments, they provide 70–95% (Kapos et al. 2000; WCMC-UNEP 2002). Mountains provide goods and services of global significance in the form of water, hydroelectricity, timber, biodiversity and niche products, mineral resources, recreation, and flood management (Schild and Sharma 2011; Molden and Sharma 2013). Mountains are more diverse region rich in ethnicity and languages. In general, poverty is higher in mountain regions and people are often at higher risk than people elsewhere. According to a recent FAO analysis, 39% of mountain populations (urban and rural combined) in developing countries were considered vulnerable to food insecurity in 2012, an increase of 30% compared to 12 years prior (FAO 2015).

Mountain geological formations are fragile and ecosystems are degrading fast because of both natural and anthropogenic drivers of change. Mountains are also places of cultural meaning and refuge. Many mountain inhabitants have settled there to escape religious or political persecution or wars in lowlands. Mountains are also often focal areas of armed conflict. Mountain areas have ecological, aesthetic, and socioeconomic significance, not only for people living there, but for those living beyond—especially those in the lowlands who benefit from the ecological services mountains provide. Thus, mountains, in one perspective, stand as some of the planet’s last natural ‘islands’ in a sea of increasingly anthropogenic influenced lowlands, providing a number of significant ecological functions extending beyond mountain regions (Hamilton 2002).

Mountains also represent unique areas for detecting climate change and assessing climate change impacts (Nogues-Bravo et al. 2008; Dyuergerov and Meier 2005). As climate changes rapidly through elevation over relatively short horizontal distances, so do hydrology, vegetation, ecological conditions, and socio-economic settings (Whiteman 2000; Xu and Melick 2006). This rapid change over distance, in turn, also influences cultural values and societies. In this way, it is important to recognise the complexities of environment-society interactions—culture and environment are mutually reciprocating systems.

The increasing awareness of climate change impacts on mountains, mountain ecosystems, and mountain communities have started drawing attention to mountains during international debates such as the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, the Paris Agreement 2015 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Targets 2030. There should be more pursuits for mountain perspectives to form an integral part in any discussions about future plans for sustainable development in the context of climate change. That means not just highlighting the vulnerabilities and fragilities inherent to mountain locations, but also emphasizing the resilience and strength that mountain people and communities bring when seeking to deal with these challenges.

A critically important geo-ecological asset, the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is the origin of 10 major river basins and encompasses over 4.2 million km² area (Bajracharya and Shrestha 2011; Bajracharya et al. 2015) (Fig. 1.1). This HKH area and Tien Shan mountains together form the largest area of permanent ice cover outside of the North and South Poles (hence, the occasional reference to the HKH as the “Third Pole”) and is home to four global biodiversity hotspots, 330 important bird areas (Chettri et al. 2008), and hundreds of mountain peaks over 6,000 m. The region provides ecosystem services (e.g., water, food, energy) that directly sustain the livelihoods of 240 million people in the mountain and hills of the HKH. Nearly 1.9 billion people living in the 10 river basins also benefit directly and indirectly from its resources (see Box 1.1), while more than 3 billion people enjoy the food produced in its river basins. The region is also home to some of the most diverse cultures, languages, religions, and traditional knowledge systems in the world.

The ethnic diversity and cultural wealth of the HKH extend from the Hindu Kush valleys in Afghanistan to the diverse hill and mountain systems of Myanmar. Between these areas, we find the arid and semi-arid regions of the Pamir and Karakoram mountains; the high Himalaya of India, Nepal, and Pakistan; the un-spoilt beauty of Bhutan; the Tibetan Plateau of China; and the three parallel rivers of the Salween, Mekong and Yangtze in the far eastern region located in Yunnan Province of China. The HKH features great heterogeneity from north to south and east to west in relation to precipitation, vegetation, and human livelihoods. This variability defy making easy generalizations about the region.

This assessment considers the key issues in the HKH region in the context of related questions that draws regional attention, cooperation and policy solutions. The HKH region is geologically fragile, with young and rising mountains, usually vulnerable to erosion and landslides, even without human interference. The region is undergoing rapid change driven by stressors such as climate change and human conflicts, and factors like globalization, infrastructure development, migration, tourism and urbanization. The outcome of interplay of these complex drivers of change is challenging to predict but will have major consequences, not just in the region but globally. There is a critical need to assess these drivers’ potential cost to the HKH environment and human wellbeing as well as the opportunities they may present. Per capita fossil fuel CO₂ emission from the HKH countries is one-sixth of the global average, however the region immensely suffers from the impact of climate change. Climate change is further enhanced by short-lived climate pollutants such as black carbon, which is emitted in large quantities in regions upwind of the HKH where dirty energy sources also have a large impact on health. From a policy standpoint, achieving food, water, energy, and livelihood security in the region will require exploring scenarios based on different assumptions so that the scientific community, policy-makers, the private sector, and community stakeholders can come together and make optimal governance decisions to sustain this global asset. It will also require country-specific recommendations to guide national-level policy-making.

The assessment foresaw the key issues of the region, drew 13 critical questions for addressing the identified issues, and both the issues and questions were used in formulating the vision of the assessment: To enable a prosperous, peaceful, and poverty-free people; food, energy, environment and water secure people; and climate- and disaster-resilient mountain communities for the region and the world.

Considering the issues, questions and vision as part of this assessment, we drafted our chapters and key messages in line with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this way, our “Priorities for Mountains and People of the HKH” reflect the ideals and inspiration of the SDGs. We created this complementarity through a three-step exercise:

Table 1.3 lays out the relationship between HKH priorities and the SDG framework.

The concept of the assessment was logically developed step by step by framing of key issues, identifying critical questions to address the issues and visioning of the exercise and identifying nine priorities that could contribute to 2030 SDGs.

Our assessment addresses the environmental, economic and social pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s wellbeing. This report will not be a one-time publication. It is planned as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports about the HKH.

In spite of the vast expanse of mountains and their importance in the world, as a unique and exclusive land form, they have been largely ignored within better known environmental assessments such as the IPCC and Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. In those assessments, mountains are not examined in detail: scientific knowledge is scattered and traditional indigenous knowledge systems are mostly absent. This assessment intends to fill these gaps and provide information for improved decision making in and for the HKH. HIMAP intends to provide a connection of this region in global assessments such as IPCC AR 6 and subsequent ones and IPBES, and intends to contribute to global targets like 2030 SDG goals, 1.5° World after Paris UNFCCC 2015 agreement and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015.

The assessment chapters consider status, trends and scenarios on environmental, economic and social systems of the HKH region, and come up with recommendations that build into key policy messages. This assessment focuses on various drivers of change all of which are influenced by impacts of climate change. Mountain people and ecosystems tend to experience change more rapidly and with greater intensity. Mountain regions are no longer isolated from globalization. The HKH’s biodiverse resources, rich indigenous knowledge systems, and enormous reservoirs of water provide vibrancy to the region and beyond. Understanding how these features may change over time is extremely important. In response, we devote many pages of this assessment to considering alternative development pathways and discussing ideas for enhancing regional cooperation in the HKH for sustainable mountain development.

The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) coordinated HIMAP, constituted the chapter author teams and the process was steered by policy decisions of the Steering Committee. The assessment process involved several rounds of Steering Committee meetings, workshops of Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors including write-shops and peer inter-chapter reviews, subject expert reviews, and open reviews for anyone interested. Science-policy dialogues were organized to develop key policy messages. For this assessment, HIMAP has engaged more than 300 researchers, practitioners, experts, and policy-makers. The publication of the first Comprehensive Assessment of the HKH in 2018 is planned as a wide-ranging, innovative evaluation of the current state of knowledge in the region and of various drivers of change and their impacts, and a set of practically oriented policy recommendations. The process is following these steps:

Each chapter of the assessment address three broad themes within its particular confines:

The critical questions were used by each of the chapters to address the key issues of the region. The sixteen chapters include: Introduction—setting the scene: Drivers—local, regional, and global; Climate change in the HKH; Future scenarios; Sustaining HKH biodiversity and ecosystem services; Meeting future energy needs; The cryosphere; Water security—availability, use, and governance; Food and nutrition security; Air pollution; Disaster risk reduction and increasing resilience; Mountain poverty, vulnerability and livelihoods; Adaptation strategies; Gender and inclusive development; Migration; and Governance and institutions.