Is the Shift to Electrification and Powertrain Improvement Sufficient to Change Urban Mobility’s Impact on Climate Change?

Transportation is one of the most polluting activities, with urban mobility owning the higher percentage. Currently, 99.8% of the vehicles worldwide have internal combustion engines (ICE), and 95% of these use liquid fuels made from petroleum. The private car is the most common mode of urban mobility (UM) in Western countries, as it accounts for about two-thirds of daily commuting. Moreover, the car lies at the core of the socio-technical transportation system, characterised lock-ins. Policies are set to foster powertrains’ technological improvement for emissions reduction to reach emission targets, while there is also interest in shifting from ICE improvement to electric vehicles (EVs). But are the technological improvement and swift to different vehicle powertrains sufficient conditions to reach the emission targets? Are other policies, regulations, or actions necessary? Several researchers have analysed the transition of UM, focusing primarily on technological change and less on changes in mobility modes, with digitalisation and business model disruption. We investigate UM as a socio-technical system in transition consisting of four subsystems. We present a system dynamics (SD) model for the transition from the current state of the dominant regime based on ICE technology and private car to a new one. In the new system, new modes of mobility (ride-hailing, car-sharing) challenge incumbent ones (private car, taxi, public transport), and new technologies arise as niche innovations (EVs, ICTs). Finally, the developed SD model helps us explore different scenarios and policy mixes.