nach oben

Environmental Management

Erschienen in:

14.04.2021

Land-use Decisions in Complex Commons: Engaging Multiple Stakeholders through Foresight and Scenario Building in Indonesia

verfasst von: Bayuni Shantiko, Nining Liswanti, Robin Bourgeois, Yves Laumonier

Erschienen in: Environmental Management | Ausgabe 5/2021

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

In the midst of global change uncertainties, Indonesian spatial planning authorities are developing 20-year strategies. However, the lack of collaborative engagement of stakeholders and unclear methodology around using futures studies in addressing land management undermine such plans and affect environmental governance. A crucial question is how to link a future-oriented process with governance transformation processes, particularly related to land-use planning and management. To address this issue, we used a co-elaborative scenario-building approach, referred to as participatory prospective analysis (PPA), to facilitate the creation of local multistakeholder platforms considering future-oriented perspectives. The PPA design combines equally the knowledge of local communities, technical experts and decision-makers, and was applied in a series of sequential multistakeholder workshops in two regencies in Indonesia, followed by public consultations on the main results. In both regencies, participants agreed on a common topic related to spatial planning in their jurisdiction to be explored with a 20-year time horizon. They reached consensus on relevant variables, analyzed their dependence/influence, and developed several plausible yet contrasting scenarios for land management and road maps with guidelines for the implementation of desired outcomes. The PPA approach stimulated stakeholder engagement and ensured that more local voices were not only heard but also duly included in the process. It allowed participants to consider strategies that would otherwise have been less readily accepted by their respective organizations. It showed that it is possible to improve existing spatial planning processes in Indonesia by integrating tools for a more inclusive and long-term future-oriented collaborative approach.

Vorheriger Artikel Ultimately, What is Forest Landscape Restoration in Practice? Embodiments in Sub-Saharan Africa and Implications for Future Design

Nächster Artikel Governing Landscapes for Ecosystem Services: A Participatory Land-Use Scenario Development in the Northwest Montane Region of Vietnam

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich

The European Union funded Collaborative Land Use Planning and Sustainable Institutional Arrangements (CoLUPSIA) project in Indonesia aimed to contribute to reducing environmental degradation and strengthening land tenure and community rights by collaboratively integrating all stakeholders’ views in landscape management. The outputs revolved around the relationship between land-use planning, land allocation, livelihood, and the provision and scoping for possible payments of ecosystem services in selected social ecological systems. https://www1.cifor.org/colupsia/home.html

Morphological analysis was designed as a nonquantified problem structuring method, which results in an inference model striving to represent the total problem space, and as many of the potential solutions to the given problem as possible (Ritchey, 2003)

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350430878_Structural_Analysis_Software_Base

Abram NK, Meijaard E, Wilson KA et al. (2017) Oil palm–community conflict mapping in Indonesia: a case for better community liaison in planning for development initiatives. Appl Geogr 78:33–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.10.005CrossRef

ADB-MoEF (2018) Forest Investment Program 1 2018-2021 ADB-MoEF-Hatfield Indonesia. https://www.fip1-adb.com/about-fip1/ accessed 28 Dec 2020.

Ahlqvist T, Rhisiart M (2015) Emerging pathways for critical futures research: changing contexts and impacts of social theory. Futures 71:91–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.07.012CrossRef

Álvarez A, Ritchey T (2015) Applications of general morphological analysis. Acta Morphologica Generalis 4(1):1–40

AMAN (2018) Wilayah Adat Masih Diabaikan, Dukungan Jokowi Dievaluasi. http://www.aman.or.id/wilayah-adat-masih-diabaikan-dukungan-jokowi-dievaluasi/. Accessed 30 Aug 2020

Amer M, Daim TU, Jetter A (2013) A review of scenario planning. Futures 46:23–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003CrossRef

Anandi MA, Yuliani EL, Moeliono M et al. (2020) Kapuas Hulu: a background analysis to implementing integrated landscape approaches in Indonesia. In: Reed J, Ros-Tonen M, Sunderland T (eds) Operationalizing integrated landscape approaches in the tropics. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia. 176−204

Anderson ZR, Kusters K, McCarthy J, Obidzinski K (2016) Green growth rhetoric versus reality: insights from Indonesia. Glob Environ Change 38:30–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.008CrossRef

Ardiansyah F, Marthen AA, Amalia N (2015) Forest and land-use governance in a decentralized Indonesia: a legal and policy review. Occasional Paper 132. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Arts B, Buizer M, Horlings L et al. (2017) Landscape approaches: aa state-of-the-art review. Annu Rev Environ Resour 42(1):439–463. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060932CrossRef

Astuti R M (2016) Indigenous land claims or green grabs? Inclusions and exclusions within forest carbon politics in Indonesia. The J of Peasant Stud https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2016.1197908

Bäckstrand K (2006) Multi-stakeholder partnerships for sustainable development: rethinking legitimacy, accountability and effectiveness. Eur Environ 16(5):290–306. https://doi.org/10.1002/eet.425CrossRef

Bai X, van der Leeuw S, O’Brien K et al. (2016) Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: a new research agenda. Glob Environ Change 39:351–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.017CrossRef

Banjade MR, Paudel NS, Mwangi E (2020) Insights from Participatory Prospective Analysis (PPA) workshops in Nepal. Info Brief No. 276. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia, http://www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/infobrief/7553-infobrief.pdf

BAPPEDA (2020) Laporan Kinerja Tahun 2019. Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah Kapuas Hulu, Kalimantan Barat

Barr C, Resosudarmo IAP, Dermawan A et al. (2006) Decentralization of forest administration in Indonesia: Implications for forest sustainability, economic development and community livelihoods. Report. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Bennett NJ, Satterfield T (2018) Environmental governance: a practical framework to guide design, evaluation, and analysis. Conserv Lett https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12600

Bennett NJ, Whitty TS, Finkbeiner E et al. (2018) Environmental stewardship: a conceptual review and analytical framework. Environ Manag 61(4):597–614. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-017-0993-2CrossRef

Bezold C (2010) Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight. Technol Forecast Soc Change 77:1513–1518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.012CrossRef

Bishop P, Hines A, Collins T (2007) The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight 9:5–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516CrossRef

Börjeson L, Höjer M, Dreborg K-H, Ekvall T, Finnveden G (2006) Scenario types and techniques: towards a user’s guide. Futures 38:723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002CrossRef

Bourgeois R, Jésus F (2004) Participatory prospective analysis: Exploring and anticipating challenges with stakeholders. CGPRT Publication No. 46. ESCAP, Bogor, Indonesia

Bourgeois R, Jésus F (2010) Storage, calculation and visualization of Participatory Prospective Analysis [Computer software]. CIRAD, Montpellier, France, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343987161_Structural_Analysis_Software_Basexl300sx

Bourgeois R, Liswanti N, Mukasa C et al. (2017a) Guide for co-elaboration of scenarios: Building shared understanding and joint action for reform and security of forest tenure. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia, 10.17528/cifor/006749

Bourgeois R, Penunia E, Bisht S, Boruk D (2017b) Foresight for all: co-elaborative scenario building and empowerment. Technol Forecast Soc Change https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.018

BPS (2019) Statistik Indonesia 2019. Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta. 748 pp.

Bradfield R, Derbyshire J, Wright G (2016) The critical role of history in scenario thinking: augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology. Futures 77:56–66CrossRef

Bretz KJ (2017) Indonesia’s one map policy: a critical look at the social implications of a ‘mess’. Thesis University South Carolina. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.25247.87209

Brockhaus M, Obidzinski K, Dermawan A et al. (2012) An overview of forest and land allocation policies in Indonesia: is the current framework sufficient to meet the needs of REDD+? Policy Econ 18:30–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2011.09.004CrossRef

Brouwer JH, Woodhill AJ, Hemmati M et al. (2018) The MSP guide: How to design and facilitate multi-stakeholder partnerships. Wageningen Centre for Development Innovation, Wageningen

Cairns G, Ahmed I, Mullett J, Wright G (2013) Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study. Technol Forecast Soc Change 80:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.005CrossRef

Camill P (2010) Global change. Nat Educ Knowl 3(10):49

Carpenter SR, Bennett EM, Perterson GD (2006) Scenarios for ecosystem services: an overview. Ecol Soc 11(1):29, http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/ [online] URLCrossRef

Carpenter SR, Folke C, Scheffer M et al. (2009) Resilience: accounting for the noncomputable. Ecol Soc 14(1):13, http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art13/ http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art13/CrossRef

Chakib A (2014) Civil society organizations’ roles in land-use planning and community land rights issues in Kapuas Hulu regency, West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Working Paper 147. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia, 10.17528/cifor/005426

Chermack TJ, Coons LM (2015) Integrating scenario planning and design thinking: learnings from the 2014 Oxford Futures Forum. Futures 74:71–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.07.014CrossRef

Churchman CW (1967) Wicked Problems. Management Science Vol. 14 (4) Guest editorial. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.14.4.B141

Colchester M, Jiwan N, Kleden E (2014) Independent review of the social impacts of Golden Agri Resources’ forest conservation policy in Kapuas Hulu district, West Kalimantan. Forest Peoples Programme Indonesia, Moreton-in-Marsh, UK and Jakarta, Indonesia, http://www.forestpeoples.org/sites/fpp/files/publication/2014/01/pt-kpc-report-january-2014final.pdf

Corlett RT, Primack RB, Devictor V et al. (2020) Impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on biodiversity conservation. Biol Conserv 246:108571CrossRef

Crawford MM (2019) A comprehensive scenario intervention typology. Technol Forecast Soc Change 149:119748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119748Cruz2015CrossRef

Cruz SO (2015) Alternative futures of global governance: scenarios and perspectives from the Global South. Foresight 17(2):125–142. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2014-0030CrossRef

Dator J (2009) Alternative futures at the Manoa School. J Futur Stud 14:1–18

David F, Efstathios T (2020) Opening the ‘black box’ of scenario planning through realist synthesis. Technol Forecast Soc Change 151:119801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119801CrossRef

Dove MR (1993) A revisionist view of tropical deforestation and development. Environ Conserv 20(1):17–24CrossRef

Enrici A, Hubacek K (2016) Business as usual in Indonesia: Governance factors effecting the acceleration of the deforestation rate after the introduction of REDD+. Energy Ecol Environ 1:183–196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40974-016-0037-4CrossRef

Falkner R ed. (2013) The Handbook of Global Climate and Environment Policy. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Fischer J, Peterson GD, Gardner TA et al. (2009) Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 24(10):549–554CrossRef

Fisher MR, Workman T, Mulyana A et al. (2017) Striving for PAR excellence in land use planning: multi-stakeholder collaboration on customary forest recognition in Bulukumba, South Sulawesi. Land Use Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.09.057

Fisher MR, Moeliono M, Mulyana A et al. (2018) Assessing the new social forestry project in Indonesia: recognition, livelihood and conservation? Int Forestry Rev 20:3CrossRef

Freeth R, Drimie S (2016) Participatory scenario planning: from scenario ‘stakeholders’ to scenario ‘owners.’. Environment 58:32–43. https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2016.1186441CrossRef

Fuerth LS (2009) Foresight and anticipatory governance. Foresight 11(4):14–32. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680910982412CrossRef

Giessen W (2000) Flora and vegetation of Danau Sentarum: unique lake and swamp forest ecosystem of West Kalimantan. Borneo Res Bull 31:89–122

Godet M (2000) The art of scenarios and strategic planning. Technol Forecast Soc Change 65:3–22CrossRef

Godet M (2010) Future memories. Technol Forecast Soc Change 77:1457–1463CrossRef

Green K (2005) Decentralization and good governance: the case of Indonesia. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18097/

Guston DH (2014) Understanding ‘anticipatory governance’. Soc Stud Sci 44:218–242CrossRef

Hannibal LW (1950) Vegetation Map of Indonesia. Planning Department of the Forest Service, Kolff, Djakarta, Indonesia

Hebinck A, Vervoort JM, Hebinck P et al. (2018) Imagining transformative futures: participatory foresight for food systems change. Ecol Soc 23(2):16. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10054-230216CrossRef

Hilbert M, Miles I, Othmer J (2009) Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi. Technol Forecast Soc Change 76:880–896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.01.001CrossRef

Inayatullah S (2015) What works: case studies in the practice of foresight. Tamkang University Press, Taipei, p 133. ISBN 978-986-598-2-96-6

Karrasch L, Maier M, Kleyer M et al. (2017) Collaborative landscape planning: co-design of ecosystem-based land management scenarios. Sustainability 9(10):1668. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9091668CrossRef

Kartodihardjo H, Supriono A (2000) The impact of sectoral development on natural forest conversion and degradation: The case of timber and tree crop plantations in Indonesia. Occasional Paper No 26. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

van’t Klooster SA, van Asselt MBA (2006) Practising the scenario-axes technique. Futures 38:15–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.04.019CrossRef

KSP Kantor Staf Presiden – President Office Staf (2017) Pelaksanaan Reforma Agraria Arahan Kantor Staf Presiden: Prioritas Nasional Reforma Agraria dalam Rencana Kerja Pemerintah Tahun 2017

Kusters K, De Graaf M, Buck L (2016) Guidelines: participatory planning, monitoring and evaluation of multi-stakeholder platforms in integrated landscape initiatives. Working paper. Tropenbos International and EcoAgriculture Partners, Wageningen, the Netherlands

Larson AM, Sarmiento Barletti JP, Ravikumar A et al. (2018) Multi-level governance: some coordination problems cannot be solved through coordination. In: Angelsen A, Martius C, De Sy V, et al., (eds) Transforming REDD+: Lessons and new directions. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia, p 81–91

Laumonier Y, Hadi DP, Setiabudi et al. (2020) “Kapuas Hulu Ecological Vegetation Map 1:50 000”, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), V1, https://doi.org/10.17528/CIFOR/DATA.00202

Lehoux P, Miller FA, Williams-Jones B (2020) Anticipatory governance and moral imagination: Methodological insights from a scenario-based public deliberation study. Technol Forecast Soc Change 151:119800. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119800CrossRef

Liswanti N (2012) Building a shared vision: Scenarios for collaborative land use planning in Central Moluccas regency, Indonesia. The Future of Agriculture Brief No. 39. Global Forum on Agriculture Research, Rome

Liswanti N, Fripp E, Silaya T et al. (2013) Socio-economic considerations for land use planning: the case of Seram, Central Moluccas. Working Paper No. 109. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Liswanti N, Mwangi E, Banjade MR, Herawati T (2019) What future direction for forest tenure reform implementation in Indonesia? Perspectives of national-level stakeholders. Info Brief No. 256. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Luttrell C, Obidzinski K, Brockhaus M et al. (2011) Lessons for REDD+ from measures to control illegal logging in Indonesia. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and CIFOR, Jakarta and Bogor, Indonesia

Maryudi A, Nawir AA, Permadi DB et al. (2015) Complex regulatory frameworks governing private smallholder tree plantations in Gunungkidul District, Indonesia. For Policy Econ 59:1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2015.05.010CrossRef

McCarthy JF (2000) The changing regime: forest property and reforms in Indonesia. Dev Change 31(1):91–129CrossRef

MacKay RB, McKiernan P (2004) The role of hindsight in foresight: refining strategic reasoning. Futures 36(2):161–179CrossRef

MacKay RB, McKiernan P (2018) Scenario thinking: a historical evolution of strategic foresight (elements in business strategy). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 10.1017/9781108571494CrossRef

Miller R (2015) Learning, the future, and complexity. An essay on the emergence of futures literacy. Eur J Educ 50(4):513–523. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejed.12157CrossRef

Miller R (2018) Transforming the future: anticipation in the 21st century. Taylor and Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781351048002

Miller R, Poli R, Rossel P (2018) The discipline of anticipation. In: Miller R (ed) Transforming the future: anticipation in the 21st century. UNESCO, Paris, France

Metternich GI (2018) Land use and spatial planning enabling sustainable management of land resources. Springer Nature, Cham, 10.1007/978-3-319-71861-3CrossRef

Moeliono M, Gallemore C, Santoso L et al. (2014) Information networks and power: confronting the “wicked problem” of REDD+ in Indonesia. Ecol Soc 19(2):9. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06300-190209CrossRef

Mora O, Le Mouël C, de Lattre-Gasquet M, Donnars C, Dumas P, Réchauchère O, Brunelle T, Manceron S, Marajo-Petitzon E, Moreau C, Barzman M, Forslund A, Marty P (2020) Exploring the future of land use and food security: a new set of global scenarios. PLoS One 15(7):e0235597. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235597CrossRef

Morgan DR (2015) Six treatments of global ruling power/governance and prospects for the future: an overview. Foresight 17:97–111. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-01-2015-0005. Notten van (2003)CrossRef

van Notten PW, Rotmans J, van Asselt MB, Rothman DS (2003) An updated scenario typology. Futures 35:423–443. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3CrossRef

OECD (2001) Governance in the 21st Century, Future Studies. OECD Publications, Paris, p 217CrossRef

Oliver JJ, Parrett E (2018) Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning. Bus Horiz 61:339–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2017.11.013CrossRef

Oteros-Rozas E, Martín-López B, Daw TM, Bohensky EL, Butler JRA, Hill R, Martin-Ortega J, Quinlan A, Ravera F, Ruiz-Mallén I, Thyresson M, Mistry J, Palomo I, Peterson GD, Plieninger T, Waylen KA, Beach DM, Bohnet IC, Hamann M, Hanspach J, Hubacek K, Lavorel S, Vilardy SP (2015) Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: Insights and experiences from 23 case studies. Ecol Soc 20(4):32. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-07985-200432CrossRef

Özkaynak B, Rodríguez-Labajos B (2010) Multi-scale interaction in local scenario-building: a methodological framework. Futures 42:995–1006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2010.08.022CrossRef

Patel M, Kok K, Rothman DS (2007) Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: An insight into the experiences created by stakeholder involvement in the Northern Mediterranean. Land use policy 24:546–561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2006.02.005CrossRef

Polasky S, Carpenter SR, Folke C et al. (2011) Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecology Evol 26(8):399–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2011.04.007CrossRef

Poli R (2015) The implicit future orientation of the capability approach. Futures 71(2015):105–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.03.002CrossRef

Popper R (2008) Foresight methodology. In: Georghiou L, Cassingena J, Keenan M, et al., eds. The handbook of technology foresight. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, p 44–88

Pretty JN (1995) Participatory learning for sustainable agriculture. World Dev 23(8):1247–1263CrossRef

Quay R (2017) Anticipatory Governance. J Am Plan Assoc 76(4):496–511. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944363.2010.508428CrossRef

Ramirez R, Wilkinson A (2014) Rethinking the 2×2 scenario method: Grid or frames? Technol Forecast Soc Change 86(2014):254–264CrossRef

Ramírez R, Selin C (2014) Plausibility and probability in scenario planning. Foresight 16:54–74. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-08-2012-0061CrossRef

Ramos JM (2014) Anticipatory governance: traditions and trajectories for strategic design. J Futur Stud 19(1):35–52. http://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/JFS19-1-A3-Ramos.pdf http://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/JFS19-1-A3-Ramos.pdf

Reed J, Barlow J, Carmenta R et al. (2019) Engaging multiple stakeholders to reconcile climate, conservation and development objectives in tropical landscapes. Biol Conserv 238:108229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108229CrossRef

Reed J, van Vianen J, Deakin EL et al. (2016) Integrated landscape approaches to managing social and environmental issues in the tropics: learning from the past to guide the future. Glob Chang Biol 22(7):2540–2554. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13284CrossRef

Resosudarmo IAP, Tacconi L, Sloan S et al. (2019) Indonesia’s land reform: implications for local livelihoods and climate change. Forest Policy and Econ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2019.04.007

Ritchey T (2003) Modeling complex socio-technical systems using morphological analysis. Adapted from an address to the Swedish Parliamentary IT Commission, Stockholm, December 2002. http://www.swemorph.com/downloads.html

Ritchey T (2011) Modeling alternative futures with general morphological analysis. World Futures Review (1):83–94. 10.1177/194675671100300105. Accessed 18 Dec 2020

Rondinelli DA, London T (2003) How corporations and environmental groups cooperate: assessing cross-sector alliances and collaborations. Acad Manag Perspect 17(1):61–76. https://doi.org/10.5465/ame.2003.9474812CrossRef

Ros-Tonen MAF, Reed J, Sunderland T (2018) From synergy to complexity: the trend toward integrated value chain and landscape governance. Environ Manage https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-018-1055-0

Rukmana D (2015) The change and transformation of Indonesian spatial planning after Suharto’s New Order regime: the case of the Jakarta Metropolitan area. Int Plan Stud 20(4):350–370. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563475.2015.1008723CrossRef

Ruysschaert D, Hufty M (2018) Building an effective coalition to improve forest policy: lessons from the coastal Tripa peat swamp rainforest, Sumatra, Indonesia. Land Use Policy https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.04.034

Sahide MAK, Giessen L (2015) The fragmented land use administration in Indonesia – Analysing bureaucratic responsibilities influencing tropical rainforest transformation systems. Land Use Policy 43:96–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.11.005CrossRef

Sahide, MAK, Fisher MR, Supratman S et. al. (2020). Prophets and profits in Indonesia’s social forestry partnership schemes: Introducing a sequential power analysis. Forest Policy and Econ 115:102160

Sarmiento Barletti JP, Larson AM, Hewlett C et al. (2020) Designing for engagement: A realist synthesis review of how context affects the outcomes of multi-stakeholder forums on land use and/or land-use change. World Dev 127:104753CrossRef

Sayer J, Sunderland T, Ghazoul J et al. (2013) Ten principles for a landscape approach to reconciling agriculture, conservation, and other competing land uses. PNAS 110(21):8345–8348CrossRef

Scherr SJ, Buck LE, Willemen L, Milder JC (2014) Ecoagriculture: Integrated landscape management for people, food and nature. Encycl Agriculture Food Syst 3:1–17. In Van Alfen, NK (Ed.)Amsterdam, Netherlands

Selsky JW, Parker B (2005) Cross-sector partnerships to address social issues: challenges to theory and practice. J Manag 31(6):849–873. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206305279601CrossRef

Shahab N (2016) Indonesia One Map Policy. Open Government Partnership. https://www.opengovpartnership.org/sites/default/files/case-study_Indonesia_One-Map-Policy.pdf.

Shantiko B (2012) Seeking harmony: scenarios for nature conservation and agricultural development in Kapuas Hulu regency, Indonesia. The Future of Agriculture Brief No. 18. Global Forum on Agriculture Research, Rome

Shantiko B, Fripp E, Taufiqoh T et al. (2013) Socio-economic considerations for land use planning: the case of Kapuas Hulu, West Kalimantan. CIFOR Working Paper No. 120. CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia, https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor/004349

Simamora JR (2011) Decentralisation, participation, downward accountability: the case of Indonesia. MA thesis. International Institute of Social Studies (ISS), The Hague, Netherlands

Spaniol MJ, Rowland NJ (2019) Defining scenario. Futur Foresight Sci 1:e3. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.3CrossRef

Stickler CM, Duchelle AE, Ardila JP et al. (2018) The State of Jurisdictional Sustainability. San Francisco, USA: Earth Innovation Institute/Bogor, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research/Boulder. Governors’ Climate & Forests Task Force Secretariat, USA, https://earthinnovation.org/state-of-jurisdictional-sustainability/

Tacconi L, Muttaqin MZ (2019) Reducing emissions from land use change in Indonesia: an overview. Forest Policy and Economics 108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2019.101979.

Toffler A (1970) Future shock. Random House, New York, NY

Totin E, Butler JR, Sidibé A, Partey S, Thornton PK, Tabo R (2018) Can scenario planning catalyse transformational change? Evaluating a climate change policy case study in Mali. Futures 96:44–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.11.005CrossRef

Tombourou T (2017) Using a Delphi approach to identify the most efficacious interventions to improve Indonesia’s forest and land governance. Land Use Policy https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.05.017

Urueña S (2019) Understanding “plausibility”: a relational approach to the anticipatory heuristics of future scenarios. Futures 111:15–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2019.05.002CrossRef

Vervoort JM, Kok K, Beers PJ et al. (2012) Combining analytic and experiential communication in participatory scenario development. Landsc Urban Plan 107:203–213CrossRef

Vervoort JM, Thornton PK, Kristjanson P et al. (2014) Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Glob Environ Change 28:383–394CrossRef

Vervoort JM, Gupta A (2018) Anticipating climate futures in a 1. 5°C era: the link between foresight and governance. Curr Opin Environ Sustainability 31(Jan):1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.004CrossRef

Volkery A, Ribeiro T (2009) Scenario planning in public policy: understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors. Technol Forecast Soc Change 76:1198–1207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.009CrossRef

Wright G, Bradfield R, Cairns G (2013) Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios? Technol Forecast Soc Change 80:631–642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.003CrossRef

Wyborn CA, Dunlop M, Dudley N, van Kerkhoff L, Guevara O (2016) Future oriented conservation: knowledge governance, uncertainty and learning. Biodivers Conserv 25:1401–1408CrossRef

Yuliani EL, Indriatmoko Y, Salim MA et al. (2010) Biofuel policies and their impacts on local people and biodiversity: a case study in Danau Sentarum. Borneo Res Bull 41:109–144

Yusran Y, Sahide MAK, Supratman S et al. (2017) The empirical visibility of land use conflicts: from latent to manifest conflict through law enforcement in a national park in Indonesia. Land Use Policy 62:302–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.12.033CrossRef

Vallet A, Locatell B, Barnaud C et al. (2020) Power asymmetries in social networks of ecosystem services governance. Environ Sci Policy 114:329–340CrossRef

Titel: Land-use Decisions in Complex Commons: Engaging Multiple Stakeholders through Foresight and Scenario Building in Indonesia
verfasst von: Bayuni Shantiko
Nining Liswanti
Robin Bourgeois
Yves Laumonier
Publikationsdatum: 14.04.2021
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Environmental Management / Ausgabe 5/2021
Print ISSN: 0364-152X
Elektronische ISSN: 1432-1009
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01470-1

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 5/2021

Local Spatialized Knowledge of Threats to Forest Conservation in Ghana’s High Forest Zone

Toward Inclusive Landscape Governance in Contested Landscapes: Exploring the Contribution of Participatory Tools in the Upper Suriname River Basin

Ultimately, What is Forest Landscape Restoration in Practice? Embodiments in Sub-Saharan Africa and Implications for Future Design

Envisioning the Future of Mosaic Landscapes: Actor Perceptions in a Mixed Cocoa/Oil-Palm Area in Ghana

Spatial Tools for Integrated and Inclusive Landscape Governance: Toward a New Research Agenda

Editorial: Spatial Tools for Integrated and Inclusive Landscape Governance