Risk Assessment of Government Purchased Pension Services Based on AHP-FCE

There exist many risks in government purchase pension services, the risk spread to three subjects involved in the government purchase pension services, government, social organizations and the public, including corruption risk, supply imbalance risk, regulatory failure, monopoly, morality, non equalization of service quality and risk reduction. In order to ensure the sustainable and stable development of the government’s purchase of pension services, it is necessary to evaluate the existing risks so as to prevent and avoid the risks effectively. This paper studies the AHP-FCE method based on the government purchase pension service risk, a risk index system, weights determined by expert scoring, fuzzy risk will involve uncertainty is quantified by the Shanghai municipal policy, the actual situation of case analysis, evaluation and risk, puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to effectively circumvent the government purchase pension services.