Alles war Märchen, alles war um eine Dimension reicher,um eine Bedeutung tiefer, war Spiel und Symbol.(Herman Hesse, Steppenwolf)
Assumptions Identified for Mobile Communications
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Identified assumptions > Presented visions > Transformed futures > Implications for policy
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From technology-centricity and service-centricity toward human-centricity. The definition of mobile communications generations has evolved from technology-centric definitions toward service-centricity in 5G and toward human-centricity for 6G and beyond.
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From technology push toward pull from social and environmental goals. Up to 5G, the traditional innovation process in mobile communications can be characterized as a technology push from technology and equipment vendors toward operators and end-users. With 6G, new demands for social inclusivity or privacy, security, and safety up to national sovereignty, as well as environmental pressures, have raised triple bottom line sustainability to a driver for developing 6G as a general-purpose technology and an ecosystem-wide effort. This is also expected to continue in beyond 6G.
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From international to national and local communications toward focal communications. The provisioning of mobile communications services is changing from international and national operators’ mass-produced and top-down offered services toward tailored local communications in 5G and 6G, e.g., with the help of softwarization, virtualization, cloudification, and network slicing. However, it is envisaged that in beyond 6G communications, focally provisioned bottom-up-built personalized on-demand services will emerge.
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From quality of service and quality of experience toward immersion. The utilization of mobile communications services has been by provisioning-defined quality of service or utilization-based quality of experience in up to 5G communications. In beyond 6G communications, immersive extended reality, holographic communications, and the metaverse(s) require novel types of quantification for the quality of utilization and experience.
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From ubiquitous connectivity toward ubiquitous intelligence. With the convergence of artificial intelligence and other new capabilities like sensing with mobile communications, the assisting and automating role of these capabilities in up to 5G communications is expected to become augmenting in 6G, which means that the nature of communications will change from an availability challenge into what the degree of intelligence or other integrated capabilities available for use is.
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From human–machine interfaces toward transhumanism. The traditional device-based use of mobile communications in up to 5G networks is expected to change with new human–machine interfaces like virtual glasses or haptic communications in 6G. For beyond 6G communications, implanted sensors or devices enhance human capabilities and give rise to the emergence of transhumanism, the integration of humans and machines, but also new moral, ethical, and value-related concerns due to the presence of artificial intelligence.
Visions for Future Mobile Communications
China
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To ensure the successful commercial deployment of preceding 5G.
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Introduction of native AI intelligence and computing awareness.
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Expansion to higher spectrum bands and bandwidths such as THz and visible light communications.
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To further improve the efficient use of all the spectrum resources via refarming, aggregation, and sharing.
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Expand the coverage ubiquitously on land, at sea, in the sky, and in space.
Europe
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Democracy: privacy, fairness, digital inclusion, and trust.
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Ecosystem: sustainability, business value, economic growth, open collaboration, and new value chain.
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Innovation: safety, security, resilience, regulation, responsibility, and energy consumption.
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Seventeen United Nations sustainable development goals (UN SDGs).
Japan
South Korea
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Internet of inclusive education and experience
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Human augmentation for health
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Sustainable automation in industry and the workforce
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Ubiquitous artificial intelligence in transportation and public safety
USA
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Resilience, security, privacy-preserving, safe, reliable, and available for private, business, and governmental users.
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Applicability to critical infrastructure, national security, and the military.
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End-to-end cost-effectiveness.
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Supporting life-improving value creation via transformative forms of human-to-human collaboration and human–machine and machine–machine interactions.
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Leveraging artificial intelligence to improve robustness, performance, and efficiency.
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Augmented intelligence with increased flexibility, performance, and resilience built on ultra-reliable low latency communication, multi-sensing, distributed cloud, and virtualization technologies.
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Carbon neutrality by 2040 via 6G energy efficiency and the use of ICT as an enabler.
Global ITU-R
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Networks supporting enabling services that help steer communities and countries toward reaching the UN SDGs.
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Increasing customization of user experience with user-centric resource orchestration models.
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Localized demand–supply–consumption models.
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Community-driven networks and public–private partnerships with new models for service provisioning.
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Strong role of networks’ vertical and industrial contexts.
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Lowered market entry barriers by the decoupling of technology platforms, allowing multiple entities to contribute to innovation.
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Empowering citizens as knowledge producers, users, and developers, contributing to human-centered innovation.
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Privacy influenced by increased platform data economy or sharing economy.
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Monitoring and steering of the circular economy, including co-creation to promote sustainable interaction with existing resources and processes.
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Development of products and technologies that innovate to zero (e.g., zero-waste and zero-emission technologies).
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Immersive digital realities, facilitating new ways of learning, understanding, and memorizing in different scientific fields.
Transformed Futures for Mobile Communications
CLA layer | Regional/national 6G visions | Key joint vision elements |
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Litany of surface-level details of the available 6G visions | • Key performance indicators • Key value indicators • Emerging, enabling, and embedded role of technologies | • 6G general-purpose technology • Global harmonized standardization • Intellectual property licensing policy • Sustainability-driven KPIs and KVIs |
Social systemic causation and meanings embedded in the 6G visions | • Capabilities: networks of networks • Leadership • Global vs. national targets • Human- vs. technology-centricity • R&D • Standards • Society • Verticals | • Triple bottom line accounting for social, economic, and environmental sustainability • Trustworthy 6G and stable rules for artificial intelligence and machine learning • Anticipatory regulation promoting open innovation and sustainability |
Worldviews and discourse used to legitimate 6G visions | • Competition/partnerships • National/international • Social perspective and democracy • Growth and innovation | • Ecosystem legitimacy • Empowered human • Citizen-driven • Ethics and morality |
Myths and metaphors explaining the 6G visions’ deep meaning | • Rights • Level of democracy • Business | • Healing world • Harmonious society advancement |
Litany Layer
Social Systemic Layer
Worldview, Myths, and Metaphor Layers
Transformed Futures Beyond 6G
Implications for Future Mobile Communications Policy
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Innovation policy. Fair or perfect competition never exists. Innovation policies aim to increase companies’ and nations’ competitiveness both directly and indirectly by affecting firms’ intellectual property creation. General-purpose technologies like 6G and beyond require international ecosystemic cross-industry sector innovation. These innovation efforts need to be based on shared goals and expected impacts that enable the creation of a shared vision for 6G and beyond. As future mobile communications technologies are expected to build on the extended use of several complementary technologies such as artificial intelligence, it is of the utmost importance to engage both developers and users of future 6G and beyond in collaboration. We therefore argue for a global transformative innovation policy that can push mobile communications ecosystems to deal with system and market failures and address the opportunities for transition and value creation and spillover effects identified for future mobile communications.
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Regulation. Although the mobile communications business is highly regulated, the regulative domain for future mobile communications is becoming increasingly complex, especially in Europe, where the mobile communication networks are used to serve specific vertical sectors of society with their own sector-specific regulations. However, the increasing complexity should not create barriers to sustainable value creation or hamper innovation. We therefore argue for anticipatory regulation, which defines the rules ex ante for developing 6G and beyond, and ex post when deploying and using the services. In practice, the whole regulatory process should be more agile and anticipatory in the context of new technologies, entailing a more proactive, iterative, and responsive approach to evolving markets’ regulation and emphasizing flexibility, collaboration, and innovation.
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Sustainability. Already for 6G, the integrated triple bottom line of sustainability (social, economic, and environmental, considered in parallel as balanced and uncompromised) has been introduced as a new holistic design criterion. What this means in practice remains underdefined. 6G and beyond communications can be used to solve the grand environmental and social/societal challenges of sustainability, provided that a shared vision of 6G exists. On the social/societal side, 6G could contribute to fighting climate change, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, or environmental pollution in different sectors, but on the social/societal side, the use of artificial intelligence may result in new values-based challenges to be solved. We argue for integrated triple bottom line sustainability and resilience when developing future 6G and beyond communications.
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Trustworthy communications. The privacy, security, and resilience of communications has emerged as important for individual users, organizations, and governments due to the critical role of digital infrastructures and data for modern society and its functions. The embedded or inbuilt trustworthiness of communications has thus become a value of its own for mobile communications for all its users. Moreover, as the amount of intelligence will increase in mobile communications and will increasingly be used in mobile communications, the functioning of the systems should be explicable, transparent, accountable, fair, safe, oversighted, and controlled by humans. We therefore argue for trustworthy communications as a human right.
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Strategic autonomy and sovereignty. Sovereignty is enabled by strategic autonomy in terms of capabilities, capacities, and control regarding the economy, society, and democracy. In the context of 6G and beyond, sovereignty is enabled and ensured in part by trustworthy communications. Digital technologies as a battleground for global competition are a source of geopolitical tension and threats against societal resilience and diversity; thus, autonomy and sovereignty are required to maintain competitiveness and sustainability via innovation policies and regulations. We therefore argue for the recognition of the role of sovereignty as a basis for fair and legitimate 6G and beyond mobile communications.