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2013 | Buch

Introduction Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Indian Mujahideen

Computational Analysis and Public Policy

verfasst von: V.S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R.K. Raghavan

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Terrorism, Security, and Computation

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

Advance Praise for Indian Mujahideen: Computational Analysis and Public Policy “This book presents a highly innovative computational approach to analyzing the strategic behavior of terrorist groups and formulating counter-terrorism policies. It would be very useful for international security analysts and policymakers.” Uzi Arad, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel and Head, Israel National Security Council (2009-2011) “An important book on a complex security problem. Issues have been analysed in depth based on quality research. Insightful and well-balanced in describing the way forward.” Naresh Chandra, Indian Ambassador to the USA (1996-2001) and Cabinet Secretary (1990-1992). “An objective and clinical account of the origins, aims, extra-territorial links and modus-operandi, of a growingly dangerous terrorist organization that challenges the federal, democratic, secular and pluralistic ethos of India’s polity. The authors have meticulously researched and analysed the multi-faceted challenges that the “Indian Mujahideen” poses and realistically dwelt on the ways in which these challenges could be faced and overcome.” G. Parthasarathy, High Commissioner of India to Australia (1995-1998) and Pakistan (1998-2000). This book provides the first in-depth look at how advanced mathematics and modern computing technology can influence insights on analysis and policies directed at the Indian Mujahideen (IM) terrorist group. The book also summarizes how the IM group is committed to the destabilization of India by leveraging links with other terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, and through support from the Pakistani Government and Pakistan’s intelligence service.

Foreword by The Hon. Louis J. Freeh.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Introduction
Abstract
The Indian Mujahideen (IM) is a terrorist group that seeks to destabilize India and retaliate for the perceived mistreatment of Muslims in India. Though its origins are unclear and the subject of some debate, there is no question that the group has been responsible for about 750 deaths since October 2005. We analyzed over 770 variables relating to IM on a monthly basis for a 9 year period, from 2002 to 2010, in order to identify the conditions under which IM carries out different kinds of attacks. Using sophisticated “big data” analytics methods, we were able to derive over 25,000 rules relating to IM’s behavior, of which roughly 29 are presented in this book. In addition, using sophisticated “policy generation” techniques, we were also able to come up with policy recommendations that have the potential of reducing attacks by IM.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 2. Indian Mujahideen
Abstract
This chapter traces the emergence, growth and consolidation of the Indian Mujahideen (IM). The chapter begins with a brief historical account of India’s Islamist landscape and IM’s emergence as an Islamic terrorist group. The chapter includes a brief threat assessment of IM examining past attacks, targets, and tactics, while detailing IM’s leadership, organizational structure, and alliances with other terrorist groups operating in the region.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 3. Temporal Probabilistic Behavior Rules
Abstract
This chapter describes the syntax and semantics of Temporal Probabilistic (TP) behavioral rules used throughout the book to describe the behavior of the Indian Mujahideen. The chapter describes the intuition behind TP-rules and their formal syntax and meaning, and describes an algorithm used to derive the TP-rules automatically from data about IM.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 4. Targeting Public Sites
Abstract
Indian Mujahideen has carried out numerous attacks targeting public sites such as markets, sports stadiums, and hospitals. This chapter focuses on the circumstances under which IM has carried out these attacks and identifies key aspects of IM’s environment correlated with such attacks.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 5. Bombings
Abstract
The Indian Mujahideen (IM) has carried out numerous bombings, including those at crowded city markets, transportation hubs, and commercial districts. This chapter discusses IM’s primary mode of attack, bombs planted at targets. This chapter shows close connections between bombings carried out by IM and prior arrests of IM operatives, IM communications about their operational campaign, membership of IM operatives in other groups such as SIMI, LeT and HuJI, as well as diplomatic initiatives between India’s government and the government of Pakistan. In addition, structural conditions such as Hindu-Muslim tensions within India play an important role in predicting bombings by IM.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 6. Simultaneous and Timed Attacks
Abstract
IM has specialized in carrying out simultaneous or consecutive attacks where multiple geographically dispersed targets, usually but not always in the same city, are attacked simultaneously or in quickly timed succession. These attacks are often on soft targets like city markets. This chapter examines the conditions under which IM carries out such attacks.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 7. Total Deaths in Indian Mujahideen Attacks
Abstract
As described in previous chapters, the Indian Mujahideen have carried out numerous attacks against public sites, bombings, and consecutive/timed attacks. This chapter investigates the number of people killed in IM attacks rather than the specific type of attack itself. The findings of this chapter identify conditions that can be monitored on IM’s environment that are predictive of the number of people killed in IM attacks.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 8. Computing Policy Options
Abstract
This chapter describes the methodology and the algorithm used to automatically generate policy options. It provides a mathematical definition of a policy against IM. The chapter presents an algorithm to compute all policies (in accordance with the mathematical definition of policy) that have high probability of significantly reducing all types of attacks carried out by IM (except for attacks on holidays). We were able to find one such policy. This policy will be discussed in detail in Chap.​ 9.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 9. Suggested Counter-Terrorism Policies
Abstract
In this chapter, we discuss policy options towards IM. Our Policy Computation Algorithm (PCA) generated exactly one policy that has the potential to reduce terrorist attacks carried out by IM. This one policy, however, can be implemented in many different ways. This chapter presents the policy that the PCA generated, along with a set of options on how this one policy may be implemented as well as the pros and cons of these options and recommendations on the way forward.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Chapter 10. Building a National Counter-Terrorism Center
Abstract
A major operational problem in countering terror attacks in India is the lack of a coordinated authority or even a central database of all arrested individuals, suspects, or ongoing operations. A second problem is the lack of a single operational entity responsible for fighting terrorism. Because information about counter-terror operations is spread across multiple states and organizations, most security organizations in India do not have all the information they need in order to fight such a war. This chapter focuses on the history, challenges, and future of a national counter-terrorism center in India, similar to the U.S. NCTC created in the aftermath of 9/11.
V. S. Subrahmanian, Aaron Mannes, Animesh Roul, R. K. Raghavan
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Indian Mujahideen
verfasst von
V.S. Subrahmanian
Aaron Mannes
Animesh Roul
R.K. Raghavan
Copyright-Jahr
2013
Electronic ISBN
978-3-319-02818-7
Print ISBN
978-3-319-02817-0
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02818-7

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