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2016 | Buch

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Reliability and Life-Cycle Analysis of Deteriorating Systems

verfasst von: Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Springer Series in Reliability Engineering

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

This book compiles and critically discusses modern engineering system degradation models and their impact on engineering decisions. In particular, the authors focus on modeling the uncertain nature of degradation considering both conceptual discussions and formal mathematical formulations. It also describes the basics concepts and the various modeling aspects of life-cycle analysis (LCA). It highlights the role of degradation in LCA and defines optimum design and operation parameters. Given the relationship between operational decisions and the performance of the system’s condition over time, maintenance models are also discussed.

The concepts and models presented have applications in a large variety of engineering fields such as Civil, Environmental, Industrial, Electrical and Mechanical engineering. However, special emphasis is given to problems related to large infrastructure systems. The book is intended to be used both as a reference resource for researchers and practitioners and as an academic text for courses related to risk and reliability, infrastructure performance modeling and life-cycle assessment.

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Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Engineering Decisions for Long-Term Performance of Systems

Abstract

The objective of engineering practice is to provide solutions to human needs by developing and deploying technologies that make life better.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 2. Reliability of Engineered Systems

Abstract

Making decisions about the design and operation of infrastructure requires estimating the future performance of systems, which implies evaluating the system’s ability to perform as expected during a predefined time window. This evaluation fits within what is known as reliability analysis. This chapter presents an introduction to the basic concepts and the theory of reliability in engineering, which provides the foundation for constructing degradation models (see Chaps. 4–7), performing life-cycle cost analyses (see Chaps. 8 and 9), and to designing maintenance strategies (Chap. 10). In the first part of this chapter, we present some conceptual issues about reliability and a description of basic reliability approaches. The second part of the chapter, Sect. 2.7 and onward, presents an overview of reliability models and sets the basis for theory that will be used and discussed in the rest of the book.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 3. Basics of Stochastic Processes, Point and Marked Point Processes

Abstract

The study of the dynamic performance of engineered systems subject to uncertainty requires the use of tools from stochastic processes. Although stochastic processes have been used extensively in many disciplines (e.g., see [1‐4]), this chapter will focus on the the mathematical background that supports the models presented later in the book. The topics of stochastic processes presented in this chapter include definition of point processes, basic theorems, renewal theory, and regenerative processes. Not all theory about stochastic processes presented in this book is included in this chapter; some additional concepts and formalisms are presented and discussed in the following chapters when appropriate. This chapter is not intended as a comprehensive review, and several references are included for the reader to explore some of the topics in more detail.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 4. Degradation: Data Analysis and Analytical Modeling

Abstract

A central element in life-cycle modeling of engineered systems is the appropriate understanding, evaluation, and modeling of degradation. In this chapter we first provide a formal definition and a conceptual framework for characterizing system degradation over time. Afterward, we discuss the importance of actual field data analysis and, in particular, we present a conceptual discussion on data collection. We also present briefly the basic concepts of regression analysis, which might be considered the first and simplest approach to constructing degradation models. Regression analysis will be used later to obtain estimates of the parameters of degradation models. As an example, the special case of estimating the parameters of the gamma process (see Chap. 5) is presented. This chapter is not intended as a comprehensive discussion on degradation data analysis, as this topic has been widely studied in a variety of different research fields, and many tools and procedures are available for modeling degradation data.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 5. Continuous State Degradation Models

Abstract

In this and the following chapters, the focus is on mathematical models for degradation that are based on stochastic processes.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 6. Discrete State Degradation Models

Abstract

This chapter presents and discusses models where the system state, as it degrades, takes values in a discrete state space. Furthermore, it is assumed that the change of the system state through time may occur at discrete or continuous points in time according to certain rules. These models assume that the system moves through a sequence of increasing damage states until failure or intervention. Under these assumptions, most models presented in this chapter are based on Markov processes and in particular on Markov chains, which may be discrete or continuous in time.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 7. A Generalized Approach to Degradation

Abstract

In Chaps. 5 and 6 we presented and discussed a set of degradation models commonly used in engineering practice.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 8. Systematically Reconstructed Systems

Abstract

In Chaps. 4–7, we addressed the problem of modeling systems that degrade over time and that are abandoned after failure. However, frequently, once systems reach a serviceability threshold, or experience failure, they are updated or reconstructed so as to be put back in service. In these cases, some additional considerations are needed to describe the system’s performance over time. Since models for systematically reconstructed systems are based on renewal theory (under specific assumptions; see Chap. 3), one of the modeling challenges in this chapter is the study and evaluation of the distribution function for the times between renewals. We also integrate the degradation models presented in Chaps. 4 and 7 with renewal theory to build models able to describe the long-term performance of large engineering systems. The chapter is divided into two parts. The first part presents models that do not explicitly take deterioration into account, while the second part considers explicit characterizations of deterioration over time. The models presented in this chapter will be used later to carry out life-cycle analysis (Chap. 9) and to define maintenance policies (Chap. 10).

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 9. Life-Cycle Cost Modeling and Optimization

Abstract

The purpose of the previous chapters was to provide tools that can be used to predict the future performance of engineering systems. This is important since the economic and functional feasibility of large engineering projects depends mostly on their operation and management through time. In this chapter, we discuss the concept of life-cycle analysis, a modern project evaluation paradigm for assessing the impacts (e.g., environmental, economic) of a product (e.g., engineering project) or service from “cradle to grave.” Up to Chap. 8 we focused on existing mathematical models to describe system degradation and the alternatives to derive lifetime distributions. In this and the following chapters, we will use these models within the context of life-cycle analysis. In the first part of the chapter, we discuss in some detail the problem of life-cycle analysis and describe all aspects involved in the evaluation. In the second part, we focus on the problem of defining optimum design parameters for systems with long lifetimes. Some of the concepts developed in this chapter will be used also in Chap. 10 to define maintenance strategies.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Chapter 10. Maintenance Concepts and Models

Abstract

One of the main objectives of life-cycle analysis is to provide a framework for the design of an optimal maintenance policy; that is, to define a program of interventions that maximizes the profit derived from the existence of the project while assuring its safety and availability.

Mauricio Sánchez-Silva, Georgia-Ann Klutke

Backmatter

Titel: Reliability and Life-Cycle Analysis of Deteriorating Systems
verfasst von: Mauricio Sánchez-Silva
Georgia-Ann Klutke
Copyright-Jahr: 2016
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-20946-3
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-20945-6
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20946-3