Skip to main content

2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Social Network Structure as a Predictor of Social Behavior: The Case of Protest in the 2016 US Presidential Election

verfasst von : Molly Renaud, Rostyslav Korolov, David Mendonça, William Wallace

Erschienen in: Recent Developments in Data Science and Intelligent Analysis of Information

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This research explores relationships between social network structure (as inferred from Twitter posts) and the occurrence of domestic protests following the 2016 US Presidential Election. A hindcasting method is presented which exploits Random Forest classification models to generate predictions about protest occurrence that are then compared to ground truth data. Results show a relationship between social network structure and the occurrence of protests that is stronger or weaker depending on the time frame of prediction.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Steinert-Threlkeld, Z.C., Mocanu, D., Vespignani, A., Fowler, J.: Online social networks and offline protest. EPJ Data Sci. 4(1), 19 (2015)CrossRef Steinert-Threlkeld, Z.C., Mocanu, D., Vespignani, A., Fowler, J.: Online social networks and offline protest. EPJ Data Sci. 4(1), 19 (2015)CrossRef
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Compton, R., Lee, C., Xu, J., Artieda-Moncada, L., Lu, T.C., De Silva, L., Macy, M.: Using publicly visible social media to build detailed forecasts of civil unrest. Secur. Inform. 3(1), 4 (2014)CrossRef Compton, R., Lee, C., Xu, J., Artieda-Moncada, L., Lu, T.C., De Silva, L., Macy, M.: Using publicly visible social media to build detailed forecasts of civil unrest. Secur. Inform. 3(1), 4 (2014)CrossRef
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Korolov, R., Lu, D., Wang, J., Zhou, G., Bonial, C., Voss, C., Kaplan, L., Wallace, W., Han, J., Ji, H.: On predicting social unrest using social media. In: 2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM), pp. 89–95, August 2016 Korolov, R., Lu, D., Wang, J., Zhou, G., Bonial, C., Voss, C., Kaplan, L., Wallace, W., Han, J., Ji, H.: On predicting social unrest using social media. In: 2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM), pp. 89–95, August 2016
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Kallus, N.: Predicting crowd behavior with big public data. In: Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on World Wide Web, pp. 625–630. ACM (2014) Kallus, N.: Predicting crowd behavior with big public data. In: Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on World Wide Web, pp. 625–630. ACM (2014)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Oh, O., Eom, C., Rao, H.R.: Research note—role of social media in social change: an analysis of collective sense making during the 2011 Egypt revolution. Inf. Syst. Res. 26(1), 210–223 (2015)CrossRef Oh, O., Eom, C., Rao, H.R.: Research note—role of social media in social change: an analysis of collective sense making during the 2011 Egypt revolution. Inf. Syst. Res. 26(1), 210–223 (2015)CrossRef
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Tufekci, Z., Wilson, C.: Social media and the decision to participate in political protest: observations from Tahrir Square. J. Commun. 62(2), 363–379 (2012)CrossRef Tufekci, Z., Wilson, C.: Social media and the decision to participate in political protest: observations from Tahrir Square. J. Commun. 62(2), 363–379 (2012)CrossRef
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Cadena, J., Korkmaz, G., Kuhlman, C.J., Marathe, A., Ramakrishnan, N., Vullikanti, A.: Forecasting social unrest using activity cascades. PLoS ONE 10(6), e0128879 (2015)CrossRef Cadena, J., Korkmaz, G., Kuhlman, C.J., Marathe, A., Ramakrishnan, N., Vullikanti, A.: Forecasting social unrest using activity cascades. PLoS ONE 10(6), e0128879 (2015)CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Snow, D.A., Soule, S.A., Kriesi, H.: The Blackwell Companion to Social Movements. Wiley, London (2008) Snow, D.A., Soule, S.A., Kriesi, H.: The Blackwell Companion to Social Movements. Wiley, London (2008)
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Dalton, R., Van Sickle, A., Weldon, S.: The individual-institutional nexus of protest behaviour. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 40(1), 51–73 (2010)CrossRef Dalton, R., Van Sickle, A., Weldon, S.: The individual-institutional nexus of protest behaviour. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 40(1), 51–73 (2010)CrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Furusawa, K.: Participation and protest in the European union and the ‘outsider’ states. Contemp. Polit. 12(2), 207–223 (2006)CrossRef Furusawa, K.: Participation and protest in the European union and the ‘outsider’ states. Contemp. Polit. 12(2), 207–223 (2006)CrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Dalton, R.J.: Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. CQ Press, Thousand Oaks (2013) Dalton, R.J.: Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. CQ Press, Thousand Oaks (2013)
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Klandermans, B., Oegema, D.: Potentials, networks, motivations, and barriers: steps towards participation in social movements. Am. Sociol. Rev. 52(4), 519–531 (1987)CrossRef Klandermans, B., Oegema, D.: Potentials, networks, motivations, and barriers: steps towards participation in social movements. Am. Sociol. Rev. 52(4), 519–531 (1987)CrossRef
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Kuran, T.: Sparks and prairie fires: a theory of unanticipated political revolution. Public Choice 61(1), 41–74 (1989)CrossRef Kuran, T.: Sparks and prairie fires: a theory of unanticipated political revolution. Public Choice 61(1), 41–74 (1989)CrossRef
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Klandermans, B., Van der Toorn, J., Van Stekelenburg, J.: Embeddedness and identity: how immigrants turn grievances into action. Am. Sociol. Rev. 73(6), 992–1012 (2008)CrossRef Klandermans, B., Van der Toorn, J., Van Stekelenburg, J.: Embeddedness and identity: how immigrants turn grievances into action. Am. Sociol. Rev. 73(6), 992–1012 (2008)CrossRef
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Barberá, P., Wang, N., Bonneau, R., Jost, J.T., Nagler, J., Tucker, J., González-Bailón, S.: The critical periphery in the growth of social protests. PLoS ONE 10(11), e0143611 (2015)CrossRef Barberá, P., Wang, N., Bonneau, R., Jost, J.T., Nagler, J., Tucker, J., González-Bailón, S.: The critical periphery in the growth of social protests. PLoS ONE 10(11), e0143611 (2015)CrossRef
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Borge-Holthoefer, J., Rivero, A., García, I., Cauhé, E., Ferrer, A., Ferrer, D., Francos, D., Iniguez, D., Pérez, M.P., Ruiz, G., et al.: Structural and dynamical patterns on online social networks: the Spanish May 15th movement as a case study. PLoS ONE 6(8), e23883 (2011)CrossRef Borge-Holthoefer, J., Rivero, A., García, I., Cauhé, E., Ferrer, A., Ferrer, D., Francos, D., Iniguez, D., Pérez, M.P., Ruiz, G., et al.: Structural and dynamical patterns on online social networks: the Spanish May 15th movement as a case study. PLoS ONE 6(8), e23883 (2011)CrossRef
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Morales, A., Losada, J., Benito, R.: Users structure and behavior on an online social network during a political protest. Phys. A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 391(21), 5244–5253 (2012)CrossRef Morales, A., Losada, J., Benito, R.: Users structure and behavior on an online social network during a political protest. Phys. A: Stat. Mech. Appl. 391(21), 5244–5253 (2012)CrossRef
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Le, H.K., Pasternack, J., Ahmadi, H., Gupta, M., Sun, Y., Abdelzaher, T., Han, J., Roth, D., Szymanski, B., Adali, S.: Apollo: towards factfinding in participatory sensing. In: Proceedings of the 10th ACM/IEEE International Conference on Information Processing in Sensor Networks, pp. 129–130, April 2011 Le, H.K., Pasternack, J., Ahmadi, H., Gupta, M., Sun, Y., Abdelzaher, T., Han, J., Roth, D., Szymanski, B., Adali, S.: Apollo: towards factfinding in participatory sensing. In: Proceedings of the 10th ACM/IEEE International Conference on Information Processing in Sensor Networks, pp. 129–130, April 2011
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Bosch, A., Zisserman, A., Munoz, X.: Image classification using random forests and ferns. In: 2007 IEEE 11th International Conference on Computer Vision, pp. 1–8, October 2007 Bosch, A., Zisserman, A., Munoz, X.: Image classification using random forests and ferns. In: 2007 IEEE 11th International Conference on Computer Vision, pp. 1–8, October 2007
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Kohavi, R.: A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection. In: Proceedings of the 14th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI 1995, San Francisco, CA, USA, vol. 2, pp. 1137–1143. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., Los Altos (1995) Kohavi, R.: A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection. In: Proceedings of the 14th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI 1995, San Francisco, CA, USA, vol. 2, pp. 1137–1143. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., Los Altos (1995)
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Liaw, A., Wiener, M.: Classification and regression by randomForest. R News 2(3), 18–22 (2002) Liaw, A., Wiener, M.: Classification and regression by randomForest. R News 2(3), 18–22 (2002)
Metadaten
Titel
Social Network Structure as a Predictor of Social Behavior: The Case of Protest in the 2016 US Presidential Election
verfasst von
Molly Renaud
Rostyslav Korolov
David Mendonça
William Wallace
Copyright-Jahr
2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97885-7_27

Premium Partner