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2012 | Buch

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Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System

verfasst von: William K.-M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Buchreihe : Springer Praxis Books

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

Improving the reliability of long-range forecasts of natural disasters, such as severe weather, droughts and floods, in North America, South America, Africa and the Asian/Australasian monsoon regions is of vital importance to the livelihood of millions of people who are affected by these events. In recent years the significance of major short-term climatic variability, and events such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation in the Pacific, with its worldwide effect on rainfall patterns, has been all to clearly demonstrated. Understanding and predicting the intra-seasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projects through climate models. In the second edition of this classic book on the subject, the authors have updated the original chapters, where appropriate, and added a new chapter that includes short subjects representing substantial new development in ISV research since the publication of the first edition.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

1. Historical perspective

Abstract

The 1960s was a remarkable decade for research in tropical meteorology. Tropical climatology was already reasonably understood, but little was known of its variability or that of daily tropical weather. Regularly sampled data and access to computers to process data became more readily available. The excitement of looking at these data, which no one else had studied before, must have been something like that of polar explorers in the early part of the century who made their way to places no one had ever been before.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Roland A. Madden, Paul R. Julian

2. South Asian monsoon

Abstract

As the word ‘‘monsoon’’ (derived from an Arabic word meaning ‘‘seasons’’) indicates, the South Asian (SA) summer monsoon is part of an annually reversing wind system (Figure 2.1c, d) (Ramage, 1971; Rao, 1976).

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, B. N. Goswami

3. Intraseasonal variability of the atmosphere–ocean–climate system: East Asian monsoon

Abstract

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is one of the major systems affecting the summer monsoon system in East Asia and the Western North Pacific (EA/WNP). This has become known to the scientific community since the late 1970s and early 1980s. Studies (e.g., Krishnamurti and Bhalme, 1976; Murakami, 1976; Yasunari, 1979; Krishnamurti and Subrahmanyan, 1982) report the prominent northward ISO propagation at both 10 to 20-day and 30 to 60-day periods in the Asian summer monsoon region.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Huang-Hsiung Hsu

4. Pan America

Abstract

Rain has a strong socioeconomic impact for the 850 million inhabitants of the American continents. Both continents depend on rainfall to sustain agriculture, hydroelectric power, and to maintain their waterways. Rainfall over Pan America has large interannual and intreaseasonal variability.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Kingtse C. Mo, Charles Jones, Julia Nogués Paegle

5. Australasian monsoon

Abstract

This chapter describes the intraseasonal climate and weather variability of the ‘‘Australasian monsoon’’ region comprising northern Australia, Indonesia, New Guinea, the surrounding seas, and the near equatorial southwest Pacific.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, M. C. Wheeler, J. L. McBride

6. The oceans

Abstract

There is a very wide variety of intraseasonal variability (ISV) in the oceans, due to many different processes beyond forcing by tropical intraseasonal winds and heat fluxes. The main focus of this chapter, however, is on the upper-ocean response to the tropical atmospheric ISV discussed in the other chapters of this book and is most germane in this context.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, William S. Kessler

7. Air–sea interaction

Abstract

Air–sea interaction associated with tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) and, particularly, the Madden –Julian Oscillation (MJO) is of interest for three reasons.First, variations in the air –sea fluxes of heat and moisture may be fundamental to the mechanisms involved in tropical ISV.

Air–sea interaction associated with tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) and, particularly, the Madden –Julian Oscillation (MJO) is of interest for three reasons. First, variations in the air–sea fluxes of heat and moisture may be fundamental to the mechanisms involved in tropical ISV.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Harry Hendon

8. Mass, momentum, and geodynamics

Abstract

While other chapters of this book describe meteorological intraseasonal variability (ISV) phenomena in the atmosphere–ocean system and examine the possible causes of ISV or the dynamic interactions between the meteorological components that are involved, in this chapter we will study certain global geodynamic effects that relate to the mass transport associated with ISV, which for the most part occurs in the atmosphere–ocean system.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Benjamin F. Chao, David A. Salstein

9. El Niño Southern Oscillation connection

Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most pronounced signal in tropical intraseasonal (20–90 days) variability, and the El Ninñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual climate phenomenon in the tropical ocean–atmosphere system.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser

10. Theories

Abstract

Since the late 1980s, many studies have been devoted to developing our theoretical understanding of the tropical ISO in order to improve model simulations and predictions. Significant progress has been achieved, although some aspects of theories remain disputable and incomplete.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Bin Wang

11. Modeling intraseasonal variability

Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has long been an aspect of the global climate that has provided a challenging test for the climate modeling community. Since the 1980s there have been numerous studies of simulation of the MJO and boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISV) in general circulation models (GCMs), ranging from Hayashi and Golder (1986, 1988) and Lau and Lau (1986), through to more recent studies such as Zhang et al.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, K. R. Sperber, J. M. Slingo, P. M. Inness

12. Predictability and forecasting

Abstract

In April 2002, a workshop was held that brought together participants with a wide range of geophysical expertise to focus on the problem of intraseasonal predictability (Schubert et al., 2002). This workshop marked a relatively important milestone in the development of our predictive capability of the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Duane Waliser

13. Africa and West Asia

Abstract

Several studies, which are reviewed in the following sections, have identified a Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) influence on precipitation in both Africa and West Asia, consistent with the maximum of MJO tropical convection in the adjacent Indian Ocean basin (e.g., Wang and Rui, 1990).

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Mathew Barlow

14. Tropical–extratropical interactions

Abstract

Intraseasonal anomalies of moist deep convection in the tropics evolve together with the global atmospheric circulation. Some of the coherence between tropical convection and extratropical weather is a consequence of redistribution of mass by convection, which is associated with broad-scale overturning circulations, global and regional cycles of atmospheric angular momentum (Anderson and Rosen, 1983; Weickmann and Sardeshmukh, 1994; Weickmann and Berry, 2009), and Rossby wavetrains that extend eastward and poleward across the midlatitudes (Sardeshmukh and Hoskins, 1988; Jin and Hoskins, 1995; Bladeé and Hartmann, 1995).

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Paul E. Roundy

15. Oceans and air–sea interaction

Abstract

Since the publication of the First Edition of this book, many new studies have focused on the role of air–sea interaction in tropical atmospheric intraseasonal variability (ISV). The aim of this section is to summarize the results of these new studies and to extract their main conclusions.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Jean Philippe Duvel

16. Vertical structure from recent observations

Abstract

This chapter discusses recent observations on the vertical structure of the MJO since 2005 when the First Edition of this book was published. Many studies have contributed to our knowledge of this subject. Earlier observations of the MJO were mainly based on limited rawinsonde data from operational sites and special field experiments, as well as previous global reanalysis products.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Chidong Zhang

17. Multiscale theories for the MJO

Abstract

In the equatorial troposphere, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetaryscale wave envelope of complex multiscale convection (see Figure 17.1 for a schematic illustration). It begins as a standing wave in the Indian Ocean and propagates eastward across the western Pacific Ocean at a speed of 5 m/s.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Andrew J. Majda, Samuel N. Stechmann

18. Chemical and biological impacts

Abstract

During the past three decades, many studies have been devoted to the interaction between the MJO and the dynamical components of the global climate system. For example, the MJO has been shown to have important influences on monsoon onsets and breaks (Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, 13), the diurnal cycle (e.g., Tian et al., 2006a; Ichikawa and Yasunari, 2007; Suzuki, 2009), tropical hurricanes and cyclones (e.g., Maloney and Hartmann, 2000a, b; Bessafi and Wheeler, 2006; Camargo et al., 2009), extratropical and high-latitude weather patterns (Chapter 14), El Ninñ o and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Chapter 9), and oceans (Chapters 6, 7, 15). However, little attention has been paid to the impacts of the MJO on the chemical and biological components of the global climate system, despite many of these components being relevant to human life and society.

William K. M. Lau, Duane E. Waliser, Baijun Tian

Backmatter

Titel: Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System
verfasst von: William K.-M. Lau
Duane E. Waliser
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-642-13914-7
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-13913-0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13914-7