4. Human Problem Handling

For a description of the concept of the problem owner, see Chap. 7.

For the description of the concept of the handling space, see Sect. 4.4.2.

As described in Chap. 7, the phases are iteratively traversed several times at different conceptual levels.

See Sect. 4.5, for instance, Van Strien (1986).

See Chap. 3 Newell and Simon (1972).

An example of problem finding where not knowing may be preferable to knowing is having an incurable cancer for which there is no intervention that will diminish the disease. A discussion on this issue is described in the novel De Aansprekers by Maarten ‘t Hart (M. ‘t Hart 1979).

The literature discussed in this chapter is mainly taken from 1970s and 1980s. More recent literature shows that these ideas and concepts are still being used. Not much concerning the topic has changed in the meantime.

See the definition of problem solving given by Newell and Simon (1972) in Sect. 3.​9.​4.​1.

See Sect. 3.​9.​3.

He uses the Dutch word: informatie-versmalling.

He uses the Dutch word: informatie-uitbreiding.

Since intuition, according to Snoek (1989), occurs more with experienced experts than with students, we believe that what is called intuition is mainly a combination of expert knowledge and experience. However, it is often called intuition because it is hard to reconstruct the thinking process because the thinking process goes very fast. Snoek (1989) considers the use of intuition a very effective and efficient method of thinking. Selz (1922) also refers to intuition. See Sect. 3.​9.​3.

Reflecting on a problem does not always mean that the problem becomes clearer. A problem that looked rather simple at first can become more complicated the more a person reflects on it.

Not all problem handling phases are discussed in this chapter in favor of the continuity of the discourse. The phases of putting the problem on the political agenda and deciding to handle the problem (phase 1.3), forming a problem handling team and starting to analyze the problem (phase 1.4), implementing interventions (phase 2.5) and evaluating interventions, and the problem handling process (phase 2.6) will be discussed in Chap. 7, because issues are more related to complex societal problem than with cognitive problems.

Also called internal memory or short-term memory

Crombag (1984) not only uses the computer as a metaphor for human thinking, but actually compares the human memory with the memory of the computer with regard to direct access of hypotheses and data. In comparison with computer memory, human memory is far more limited in its recall of facts, but much better in combining data and ideas and handle missing parts of data.

See the use of enriched pictures as conceptual models of problems in the methodology of soft systems theory of Checkland (1981, 1982, 1990, 1992).

Models are used in many disciplines to represent issues.

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This is important, as we will see later, for making a model of a complex societal problem. The content of the models of the same complex societal problem can vary a great deal. It is difficult to completely determine whether the model is correct, incorrect, or incomplete.

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When we refer to theories, hypotheses, assumptions, experiences, or intuitions in general, we will use, for the convenience of the reader, the term theoretical ideas.

Selecting a theory is more or less arbitrary, depending on a person’s scientific and/or political view and on one’s personal belief, depending on the methodology and the discipline used (Kuhn 1970).

See Sect. 4.4.3.

See Sect. 4.4.1.2.

The mathematical model is often put in formulae.

See Chap. 7 the seven-layer communication model.

See Chap. 7 the seven-layer communication model.

See Sect. 4.4.3.

See Sect. 4.4.3.

See Fig. 4.7.

See Fig. 4.8.

See for further discussion on simulation models Sect. 4.4.3 and Sect. 7.​5.

An often used system dynamic simulation program is the software program Stella.

In a model we can call the phenomena and actors variables. A variable gives information about (a part of) a phenomenon and actor involved in the problem.

See Sect. 4.4.3.

See phases of problem handling in Fig. 4.1.

Chaos theory shows that uncertainty is more than a lack of knowledge (VanDijkum and DeTombe 1992b).

Cases in the field of a banking system, a library system, and a transport system

An entity type is a data category. A person can be an entity type in a database of an organization with the attributes of name, salary, and age.

See for an explanation of the seven-layer communication model Chap. 7.

For the discussion on climate change, see Chap. 11.

See Chap. 11 the discussion on climate change.

Examples are the food distribution problem in the world, the quality of water, the refugee problem, and international trade.

See Chap. 3.

See Chap. 8.

See Sect. 4.4.3.1.

See Chap. 10 where the focus is on the complex societal problems of credit crisis as a sub-system of the world.

See Sect. 4.4.1.

One of the reasons for treating a problem suboptimally is that only a part of the problem is handled, instead of the whole problem. Interventions based only on a partial view of the problem can easily lead to pseudosolutions. An example of this is that in the early 1990s, the Ministry of Education in The Netherlands suggested that school career advisers should advise girls to study mathematics and technology instead of, for instance, languages. The advice did not have the positive effect the Ministry had hoped for. One of the reasons for this is that only a small part of the problem was handled, while the main reason, the inferior position of women in society (Beauvoir 1949/1978), was left untouched. In order to handle this problem, the cause and not only one of the symptoms have to be changed (Witte 1994).

Interventions are not always needed in order to reach the goal of the problem handling process. Sometimes conclusions can be directly drawn based on the empirical model. In psychology and in psychiatry, the goal of the problem handling is sometimes only to perform a diagnosis.

For instance, once a problem is defined as a legal problem, it is implied that a legal practitioner will “solve” the problem. Only occasionally, when new problems arise, there is a consultation of experts from domains other than law. In most of the cases, experts from other fields seldom reflect on the “law” problem again.

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The Korean War (1950–1953) was about the partition of the Korean country into North Korea and South Korea. The Chinese supported the North Korean side, while the USA and some European troops supported the South Korean side.

The Cuban Missile Crisis (October 1962) refers to the situation in the USA after the USA became aware of the action of the USSR of placing missiles in Cuba as a reaction to the failed Pigs Bay invasion of the USA on Cuba earlier that year. This invasion was the result of group think (see Chap. 6). The USSR missiles were meant to defend Cuba from a new invasion by the USA. The missiles were directed to the USA.

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See also Fig. 4.1.

See for further discussion on the desired goal Chap. 6.

The central theme of the theater play by George Büchner (1835) “The Death of Danton” is the discussions between Robespierre and Danton about the strategy and means to reach the desired goal of the French revolution (Theater play performed in Amsterdam in 2014 and directed by Johan Simons as Danton’s dood).

A homonym is the same word referring to different entities.

Redundancy is the same information at more than one place in the information system.

An example of this is the fast-changing circumstances in the East European countries in the period of 1989–1991.

Such as sensitive military data, data about firms and plants, and politically sensitive data

This is often the case with urgent problems as with sudden disasters such as typhoons, airplane crashes, political riots, or coups (Rosenthal 1984).

See Sect. 4.4.1.

The paradigm of chaos theory focuses on uncertainty in dynamic systems, on unpredictability, and uncertainty in different objects. Chaos theory is a generic term for theoretical ideas and models used by researchers from different fields focusing on the changes in systems where periods of predictable change are alternated by periods of unpredictable change. Order alternates with periods of disorder and chaotic changes. Chaos theory is applied in many disciplines (Broer and Verhulst 1990). See for further discussion on this subject Sect. 4.4.3.1.3.

The desired situation can, for instance, be a certain reorganization of an institute or diminishing the discharge of chemical plants.

The problem space is the space in which the solution of the problem can be found. We do not use the term “problem space” to avoid the idea that the goal, the operations, and the intermittent actions are already known and that the solution of the problem can be found within the problem space. For complex societal problems, often the desired situation is not clear, or the goals are in conflict with each other, and/or the kind of operations and tools are not clear. This is the reason we avoid the term “problem space.”

See Sect. 4.7.

An example of the second level of constraints is the start of the European Union in 1992.

See, for instance, the situation during the French revolution in 1789 or the evolving situation after the Russian revolution in 1917. At this level, it is also the “dream” of Martin Luther King (1929–1968) to change the society of the USA in order to improve the living conditions for black people, a dream that should be put into actions with many societal changes.

“Unfreezing” means inviting people to include, as a higher level of handling space (level three or four), a thought experiment. This can be done in order to stimulate people to think about quite new situations, to realize that the present situation is also constructed by people and as a consequence is not rigidly determined. The hope is that people will come up with quite new and creative ideas for changing the problem.

A contemporary example of this is the Woody Allen film “The Purple Rose of Cairo” in which a movie star walks out of the screen and becomes an artificially “real” person (Allen 1985), and another example is the television series Superman, in which a nice, very strong male person, who can fly, is helping other people in an almost supernatural way.

This fourth level, the mental realm, can have effects in real life. In Colombia in the nineteenth century, a kind of “Superman,” calling himself Superbario, supported poor people in their struggle to improve their lives. Television commercials also take advantage of the fantasy presenting the idea that using a certain article leads to a desired situation: eating certain slimming products will make you look like the beautiful slim young lady in the picture, and smoking cigarettes makes you a real “he-man.” Also trusting in “God” in case of war “God is on our side,” or in the case of sorrow, might give the person so much self-confidence, which the person feels stronger than usual and more capable to perform his or her tasks.

See Chap. 7.

Time is an important constraint in urgent problems, like riots and disasters (see Rosenthal 1984).

Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieuhygiëne (a Dutch semigovernmental institute)

Nederlands Centrum voor Geestelijke Volksgezondheid (an independent Dutch institute dealing with information, research, and advice in the field of public mental health and public mental healthcare)

See also discussion in Sect. 7.​4.

This criticism comes close to our critique as it is defined in Sect. 4.4.3.1.1 of the Theory of the Methodology of Societal Complexity.

See Sect. 4.3.6.

For instance, the way institutes such as the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) and the Research Center of Public Mental Health Care (NcGv) make their models

See Chap. 7.

Here, “it” refers to system dynamic modeling.

Chaos refers here to a certain kind of unpredictability. This differs from the commonsense use of the word, which means disordered.

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See for a historical overview of the development of chaos theory Gleick (1987, pp. 11–54) and Verhulst (1990, pp. 15–33).

See for further discussion on this subject Chap. 7.

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The mathematician Penrose (1989) wonders what the reason is for this indefiniteness of chaotic functions. According to Penrose it can be found in the incompletion theorem of Gödel, which proves that some things are not decidable. The question whether a certain point belongs to the values of a chaotic function or not is not decidable. One can never say with certainty that certain elements do not belong to the chaotic set.

Priest who lived in the period of 500 bc till 0 ad

In Western science, predictions are often based on extrapolation or regression analysis. The extrapolation of the future development of phenomena is based on the extrapolation of the development of phenomena. The values range within certain limits (minimum and maximum). In extrapolation the future is predicted on the basis of an analysis of the data of the previous periods in regard to the predicted changes. With regression analysis, future developments are forecast based on the assumption that present causes have future consequences in the same way that past causes have been followed by present consequences.

For this we consider that predictions based on system dynamic modeling, if done according to the methodology described in Chap. 7, increase the chance of developing better predictive models for explorations into the future than models based on extrapolation or on regression analysis; however, this statement should be supported based on further scientific research.

In making scenarios, one should take some precautions as far as this is possible based on the criticisms formulated on using system dynamic modeling for future exploration as seen in this chapter.

A null-option is that no explicit elaborate interventions are made. The situations will remain the same as they always have been (Bots et al. 1992). Scenarios based on the null-option can also be used to explore the relation between the variables in the model (VanDijkum 1992).

See Sect. 4.7.1.

Even small changes in a societal equilibrium can encounter much resistance. The introduction of societal change or changes within organizations should be carefully prepared and guided before they can be implemented. As is described in Chap. 7 about the Compram methodology, the societal reactions should be anticipated before the implementation of the proposed interventions.

An example of this is curing leprosy throughout the world. Knowing how to cure the disease is different from actually solving the leprosy problem.

Especially with productive ways of thinking, there is a distinction between discovering the problem handling method that can be applied and the actual application itself.

This was often the case at the beginning of computer controlled automation in the 1980s and 1990s of the twentieth century. After starting with problem analysis and spending 2 years on building a computer system to solve the problem, people realized that the new system no longer fitted the contemporary situation at the moment of its implementation.

See Chap. 2.

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One tries something and sees the effect, and when the effect does not meet the desired situation, one goes back and reconsiders the problem, this time with the new knowledge.

As we will state in Chap. 7, one should never skip a problem handling phase.

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See our comment earlier in this chapter. However not all the phases have to be worked through; one can also stop and leave the problem as it is.

As discussed in Chap. 7, the problem definition of the client, the problem owner, is in the case of a complex societal problem often only a part of the whole problem. After analyzing the problem, the problem looks often different.

For instance, in problem handling phase 2.1, in developing the empirical model, it can happen that one realizes that there are relations between the variables other than was previously supposed. In that case, it is sensible to return to problem handling phase 1.5 and reformulate the hypotheses about the relations between the phenomena and actors.

See also Sect. 4.7.3 and the discussion in Sect. 4.3.5 on hypotheses.

Intuition and experience also play a role in the description of the problem handling activities of neurology experts [see Sect. 3.​9.​1, Snoek (1989)].

First published by Simon in 1945

See Sect. 4.4.2.

The coincidental connection between action and positive result can be strengthened by reinforcement.

Trial and error is a commonly used research technique in medical research and in chemical research in order to find answers to problems.

See Sect. 4.6.1.

This still is the leading opinion. Although chaos theory shows that even when an algorithm is defined, in some cases there cannot be an unambiguous solution.

See the theories of decision making in Sect. 4.6.1.

See also the phases of Van Strien in Sect. 4.5.

See Sect. 3.​9.​6.

See Sect. 4.6.1.

More heuristics will follow in Chap. 7.

See Sect. 3.​2.

We are aware that the concept “normally educated” is vague and tendentious. By “normally educated,” we mean what can be expected in relation to the function, the level of education, and the age of a child or an adult according to his or her culture at a certain time.

An example of the misconception that a situation remains constant can be seen in the early days of automation. A frequent mistake in building a large database for an organization was to assume that the organizations would not change during the 1–2 years of development. However, by the time the database was finished, the organization had changed so much that the information in the database did not meet contemporary needs (see the discussion in Sect. 4.4.5).