Estimation of Currents Flows and Future Needs of Investment for Low-Carbon Transition in Major Economies of Asia Until 2030

Significant contributions to global emissions by major Asian economies and their vulnerability to climate change impacts has contributed to a sense of urgency for leaders to implement policies and allocate investment into low-carbon energy systems. Current levels of investment are dominated by China and India, and while other Southeast Asian countries have lagged behind, along with India, their share is expected to increase. Energy efficiency investments are overshadowed by those into renewables, with wind, hydropower and solar representing the lion’s share of the mix. Looking ahead, while these technologies will continue to dominate, spending on solar and hydropower is expected to decline, and investment in energy efficiency is expected to increase faster than that in renewables. Future investments will have to increase 5% per year from 2015 to meet the required levels of annual spend in 2026–2030 predicted. This may prove challenging for smaller countries that do not have the same policy and technology capabilities. Individual countries vary in the technologies they plan to invest in throughout the 2017–2030 period. Solar and energy efficiency will be opportunities in most countries, as will biomass, with the exception of India. Wind will mainly be an opportunity in China, India and Vietnam. Hydropower opportunities will be focused in China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam and geothermal opportunities will almost exclusively exist in Indonesia and the Philippines.