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Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making

Erschienen in:

15.09.2020

Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China

verfasst von: Waichon Lio, Baoding Liu

Erschienen in: Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making | Ausgabe 2/2021

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Abstract

Assume an uncertain process follows an uncertain differential equation, and some realizations of this process are observed. Parameter estimation for the uncertain differential equation that fits the observed data as much as possible is a core problem in practice. This paper first presents a problem of initial value estimation for uncertain differential equations and proposes an estimation method. In addition, the method of moments is recast for estimating the time-varying parameters in uncertain differential equations. Using those techniques, a COVID-19 spread model based on uncertain differential equation is derived, and the zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China is inferred.

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Titel: Initial value estimation of uncertain differential equations and zero-day of COVID-19 spread in China
verfasst von: Waichon Lio
Baoding Liu
Publikationsdatum: 15.09.2020
Verlag: Springer US
Erschienen in: Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making / Ausgabe 2/2021
Print ISSN: 1568-4539
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-2908
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10700-020-09337-6

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