GIS application for regional assessment of seismically induced slope failures in the Sierra Nevada Range, South Spain, along the Padul Fault

Complete rupture of the Padul Fault represents one of the largest plausible earthquakes in the Sierra Nevada Range, one of the most seismically active regions of Spain. We performed a regional assessment of earthquake-triggered slope instabilities in the western part of the range to determine the most likely types of failures from such an earthquake in the region and suggest where such failures have a higher likelihood of occurring. These results are broadly useful for management of regional life-lines and future development. First, a slope-instability inventory of the Sierra Nevada was produced to identify the most common instability types. Subsequently, the Newmark’s sliding rigid-block methodology, implemented in a geographic information system, was used to obtain the distribution of Newmark displacements in the area considering a M _w 6.6 earthquake on the Padul Fault. The Newmark displacements were then compared to the distribution of the inventoried slope instabilities to identify the areas where seismicity could reactivate old slope instabilities or generate new ones, and to identify the involved landslide typology. The most likely seismically induced slope instabilities in the Sierra Nevada are rock falls and rock slides. These types of instabilities could be triggered by Newmark displacements of 2 cm or less.