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Social Network Analysis and Mining

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01.12.2014 | Original Article

Arab Spring: from newspaper

verfasst von: Kenneth Joseph, Kathleen M. Carley, David Filonuk, Geoffrey P. Morgan, Jürgen Pfeffer

Erschienen in: Social Network Analysis and Mining | Ausgabe 1/2014

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Abstract

Agent-based simulation models are an important methodology for explaining social behavior and forecasting social change. However, a major drawback to using such models is that they are difficult to instantiate for specific cases and so are rarely reused. We describe a text-mining network analytic approach for rapidly instantiating a model for predicting the tendency toward revolution and violence based on social and cultural characteristics of a large collection of actors. We illustrate our approach using an agent-based dynamic network framework, Construct, and newspaper data for the 16 countries associated with the Arab Spring. We assess the overall accuracy of the base model across independent runs for 20 different months during the Arab Spring, observing that although predictions led to several false positives, the model is able to predict revolution before it occurs in three of the four nations in which the government was successfully overthrown.

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Code used for this article, as well as a sample of the data, can be found at https://github.com/kennyjoseph/arabspring.

We will hereafter refer to a set of articles as the collection of all articles within a single month.

See (Greenwald and Banaji 1995; Hilton and von Hippel 1996) for reviews of the plethora of social psychology literature addressing stereotyping.

E.g. the FuzzyWuzzy python module, https://github.com/seatgeek/fuzzywuzzy, used by companies like StubHub.

Trivially, see http://brenocon.com/blog/2012/04/f-scores-dice-and-jaccard-set-similarity/ for a derivation.

http://www.economist.com/node/21550328.

So, for example, the intra-country range for Egypt’s change in violence belief in January of 2011 would be computed as the IQR of Egypt’s change in violence belief from all runs covering January of 2011 or November or December of 2010.

See, e.g., http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2011/mar/22/middle-east-protest-interactive-timeline.

All replications for a single month were run in parallel using 8 cores of a 60 core machine with a 250 GB SSD drive and 120 GB of RAM.

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Titel: Arab Spring: from newspaper
verfasst von: Kenneth Joseph
Kathleen M. Carley
David Filonuk
Geoffrey P. Morgan
Jürgen Pfeffer
Publikationsdatum: 01.12.2014
Verlag: Springer Vienna
Erschienen in: Social Network Analysis and Mining / Ausgabe 1/2014
Print ISSN: 1869-5450
Elektronische ISSN: 1869-5469
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13278-014-0177-5

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