COVID-19 and Essential Commodity Expenditure: The Case of Indian Middle-Class Consumers

The global COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in the imposition of governmental bodies’ drastic actions, strategies, and policies to control the spread of the virus. During the pan-India lockdown, sudden shift in consumers’ buying behavior, in addition to the panic buying practiced by them, led to an increase in the demand for essential commodities. Previous research focused on analyzing the household expenditure related to several commodities, however, research effort in modeling the expenditure for essential commodities during disruption scenarios is limited. The objective of this paper is to model consumer spending on essential commodities during lockdown to analyze factors affecting essential commodity expenditure. Data from 730 households in 20 Indian states were used to identify socio-demographic and behavioral predictors of expenditure using linear regression. The models suggest that family size, number of children, monthly family income, and number of four-wheelers owned are significant predictors of the expenditure on essential commodities during lockdown. Moreover, consumers practicing panic buying and their frequency of shopping essentials also affect essential commodity expenditure. The insights discussed in this paper will help the supply chain industries in managing the inventories to manage and meet the commodity demand during pandemic.