11. The Evolving Nature of the Irish Policy Space

Giving workers & families a break: a Manifesto for Change, January 2020, p. 3, available at: https://​www.​sinnfein.​ie/​files/​2020/​SF_​GE2020_​Manifesto.​pdf.

Invest in better: general election manifesto 2020, January 2020, p. 5, available at: https://​www.​socialdemocrats.​ie/​wp-content/​uploads/​2018/​06/​Invest-in-Better-GE2020-1st-Feb.​pdf.

People Before Profit: election manifesto 2020, January 2020, p. 6, available at: https://​manifesto.​pbp.​ie/​wp-content/​uploads/​2020/​01/​People-Before-Profit-General-Election-Manifesto-2020.​pdf.

Independent candidate Peter Casey contested the election in two constituencies, Donegal and the Taoiseach’s constituency of Dublin West, while Seán O’Leary’s name appeared on the ballot in 11 separate constituencies.

One candidate, Marese Skehan, passed away on 3 February, five days before the election, but her name remained on the ballot in Tipperary.

The 2020 survey response rate was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in Ireland. Universities closed on 12 March, interrupting the data collection process.

Respondents were asked to provide left–right positions for all of the main political parties discussed here (Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour, the Greens and Sinn Féin), as well as Solidarity–People Before Profit. In addition, we asked them to indicate where they would position their own views.

Where confidence intervals overlap with one another, it is not possible to conclude that the mean party positions are different from one another. So, while we can conclude that Fine Gael and Sinn Féin’s positions on the left–right spectrum are different from one another, we cannot say the same for those of the Greens and Labour.

This is also probably a function of the number of responses that were received from Labour Party candidates before the pandemic lockdown put an end to data gathering. We would expect this confidence interval to narrow with a higher response rate.

Although the analysis for this chapter is concerned with the five main political parties, the mean non-partisan ideological placement score contains responses from candidates from all other parties, as well as from independent candidates.

The differences between the mean partisan and mean opponent scores are statistically significant for all parties except for Labour. This is probably a function of the low number of responses from that party.

Certainly, there does seem to be a political calculation around placement of the political parties. When we consult the placement of Irish political parties by contributors to the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, we find that the experts give a score that falls between those of partisans and opponents. In 2019, the most recent year for which this data is available, the experts assigned the parties the following positions on a 0–10 scale: Fine Gael (5.9), Fianna Fáil (5.4), Labour (3.6), Green Party (3.1), and Sinn Féin (2.6). This ordering of the parties from right to left is consistent with the order from the 2019 LECS responses (see Fig. 11.1). Data from Ryan Bakker et al., 1999–2019 Chapel Hill Expert Survey Trend File, version 1.2 (2020). Available on chesdata.eu.

Luke Field, ‘The abortion referendum of 2018 and a timeline of abortion politics in Ireland to date’, Irish Political Studies 33:4 (2018), pp. 608–28.

Giving workers & families a break: a Manifesto for Change, January 2020, p. 3, available at: https://​www.​sinnfein.​ie/​files/​2020/​SF_​GE2020_​Manifesto.​pdf.

Towards 2030: a decade of change, January 2020, available at: https://​www.​greenparty.​ie/​wp-content/​uploads/​2020/​01/​GREEN_​PARTY_​TOWARDS_​2030-WEB-VERSION.​pdf.

Conor Lally, ‘Election 2020: Is Leo Varadkar right when he says Ireland’s crime rate is low?’, Irish Times 20 January 2020.

Philip Ryan, Cormac McQuinn and Hugh O’Connell, ‘General election 2020 Prime Time debate: leaders clash over housing and Special Criminal Court’, Irish Independent 4 February 2020.

Fiach Kelly, ‘“I’m not going to go into any more detail”—Varadkar faces drugs question again’, Irish Times 23 January 2020.