Competing State and Grassroots Opposition Influence in the 2021 Hong Kong Election

State-led online influence campaigns represent a major frontier in contemporary global politics. Such operations, however, do not take place unopposed and may encounter collective resistance. This study compares two competing influence campaigns during the 2021 Hong Kong Legislative Council (Legco) election: one by the Chinese state seeking to emphasize the legitimacy of local polls, versus pro-democracy activists denouncing Chinese interference in the electoral process. Critically, we discover that the two groups do not directly confront each other online. Rather, both camps appeal to international audiences by leveraging narrative strategies to negatively distort and distract from their opponents, while positively engaging and explaining their own positions regarding the elections. Furthermore, while pro-democracy activists bridge multiple connections to diverse online groups, Chinese state accounts play more specialized, hub-like roles within centralized networked communities. Taking these findings together, we discuss the importance of characterizing online influence campaigns in relation to broader diplomatic objectives. In the Chinese case, success may entail minimizing attention toward critics and an election they had effectively already won.