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2015 | Buch

Thinking Ahead - Essays on Big Data, Digital Revolution, and Participatory Market Society

verfasst von: Dirk Helbing

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Über dieses Buch

The rapidly progressing digital revolution is now touching the foundations of the governance of societal structures. Humans are on the verge of evolving from consumers to prosumers, and old, entrenched theories – in particular sociological and economic ones – are falling prey to these rapid developments. The original assumptions on which they are based are being questioned. Each year we produce as much data as in the entire human history - can we possibly create a global crystal ball to predict our future and to optimally govern our world? Do we need wide-scale surveillance to understand and manage the increasingly complex systems we are constructing, or would bottom-up approaches such as self-regulating systems be a better solution to creating a more innovative, more successful, more resilient, and ultimately happier society? Working at the interface of complexity theory, quantitative sociology and Big Data-driven risk and knowledge management, the author advocates the establishment of new participatory systems in our digital society to enhance coordination, reduce conflict and, above all, reduce the “tragedies of the commons,” resulting from the methods now used in political, economic and management decision-making.

The author

Physicist Dirk Helbing is Professor of Computational Social Science at the Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences and an affiliate of the Computer Science Department at ETH Zurich, as well as co-founder of ETH’s Risk Center. He is internationally known for the scientific coordination of the FuturICT Initiative which focuses on using smart data to understand techno-socio-economic systems.

“Prof. Helbing has produced an insightful and important set of essays on the ways in which big data and complexity science are changing our understanding of ourselves and our society, and potentially allowing us to manage our societies much better than we are currently able to do. Of special note are the essays that touch on the promises of big data along with the dangers...this is material that we should all become familiar with!” Alex Pentland, MIT, author of Social Physics: How Good Ideas Spread - The Lessons From a New Science

"Dirk Helbing has established his reputation as one of the leading scientific thinkers on the dramatic impacts of the digital revolution on our society and economy. Thinking Ahead is a most stimulating and provocative set of essays which deserves a wide audience.” Paul Ormerod, economist, and author of Butterfly Economics and Why Most Things Fail.

"It is becoming increasingly clear that many of our institutions and social structures are in a bad way and urgently need fixing. Financial crises, international conflicts, civil wars and terrorism, inaction on climate change, problems of poverty, widening economic inequality, health epidemics, pollution and threats to digital privacy and identity are just some of the major challenges that we confront in the twenty-first century. These issues demand new and bold thinking, and that is what Dirk Helbing offers in this collection of essays. If even a fraction of these ideas pay off, the consequences for global governance could be significant. So this is a must-read book for anyone concerned about the future." Philip Ball, science writer and author of Critical Mass

“This collection of papers, brought together by Dirk Helbing, is both timely and topical. It raises concerns about Big Data, which are truly frightening and disconcerting, that we do need to be aware of; while at the same time offering some hope that the technology, which has created the previously unthought-of dangers to our privacy, safety and democracy can be the means to address these dangers by enabling social, economic and political participation and coordination, not possible in the past. It makes for compelling reading and I hope for timely action.”Eve Mitleton-Kelly, LSE, author of Corporate Governance and Complexity Theory and editor of Co-evolution of Intelligent Socio-technical Systems

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
1. Introduction—Have We Opened Pandora’s Box?
Abstract
The first of the contributions in this booklet dates back to March 2008, when Markus Christen, James Breiding and myself became concerned about the stability of the financial system that we felt urged to write a newspaper article to alert the public (see the English translation in Chap. 4). Unfortunately, at that time, the public was not ready to listen. Newspaper editors found our analysis too complex. We responded that a financial crisis would be impossible to prevent, if newspapers failed to explain the complexity of problems like this to their audience. Just a few months later, Lehmann Brothers collapsed, which gave rise to a large-scale crisis. It made me think about the root causes of economic problems and of global crises in general (see Chaps. 4, 5, and 7). But my collaborators and I saw not only the financial crisis coming. We also voiced the surveillance problem early on and the political vulnerability of European gas supply. We studied conflict in Israel, the spreading of diseases, and new response strategies to earthquakes and other disasters. Shortly after, all of this turned out to be highly relevant, almost visionary…
Dirk Helbing
2. Lost Robustness
Abstract
The current financial crisis is the expression of a systemic change that has occurred in the global economy slowly but profoundly during the last few decades. Our thesis results from an analysis of the financial world from the perspective of the theory of complex systems (which describes common features of social, traffic, ecnomic and ecological systems). The key question guiding our analysis is: what properties make the financial system robust, and therefore stable?
Dirk Helbing
3. How and Why Our Conventional Economic Thinking Causes Global Crises
Abstract
This discussion paper challenges a number of established views of mainstream economic thinking that, from the perspective of complexity science, seem to require a thorough revision. As Albert Einstein pointed out: “We cannot solve our problems with the same kind of thinking that created them.” Therefore, the new perspective offered here might help to identify new solutions to a number of old economic problems.
Dirk Helbing
4. “Networked Minds” Require a Fundamentally New Kind of Economics
Abstract
In their computer simulations of human evolution, scientists at ETH Zurich find the emergence of the “homo socialis” with “other-regarding” preferences. The results explain some intriguing findings in experimental economics and call for a new economic theory of “networked minds”.
Dirk Helbing
5. A New Kind of Economy is Born−Social Decision-Makers Beat the “Homo Economicus”
Abstract
The Internet and Social Media change our way of decision making. We are no longer the independent decision-makers we used to be. Instead, we have become networked minds, social decision-makers, more than ever before. This has several fundamental implications. First of all, our economic theories must change, and second, our economic institutions must be adapted to support the social decision-maker, the “homo socialis”, rather than tailored to the perfect egoist, known as “homo economicus”.
Dirk Helbing
6. Global Networks Must be Redesigned
Abstract
Todays strongly connected, global networks have produced highly interdependent systems that we have not been able to adequately understand and control. These systems are vulnerable to failure at all scales, posing serious threats to society, even when external shocks are absent. As the complexity and interaction strengths in our networked world increase, man-made systems can become unstable, creating uncontrollable situations even when decision-makers are well-skilled, have all data and technology at their hands, and do their best. To make these systems manageable, a fundamental redesign is needed. A Global Systems Science might create the required knowledge and paradigm shift in thinking.
Dirk Helbing
7. Big Data—A Powerful New Resource for the Twenty-first Century
Abstract
Information and communication technology (ICT) is the economic sector that is developing most rapidly in the USA and Asia and generates the greatest value added per employee. Big Data—the algorithmic discovery of hidden treasures in large data sets—creates new economic value. The development is increasingly understood as a new technological revolution. Europe could establish itself as data bank and Open Data pioneer and turn into a leading place in the area of information technologies.
Dirk Helbing
8. Google as God? Opportunities and Risks of the Information Age
Abstract
If God did not exist—people would invent one! The development of human civilization requires mechanisms promoting cooperation and social order. One of these mechanisms is based on the idea that everything we do is seen and judged by God—bad deeds will be punished, while good ones will be rewarded. The Information Age has now fueled the dream that God-like omniscience and omnipotence can be created by man. This essay discusses the implications.
Dirk Helbing
9. From Technology-Driven Society to Socially Oriented Technology: The Future of Information Society—Alternatives to Surveillance
Abstract
Our society is changing. Almost nothing these days works without a computer chip. Computing power doubles every 18 months, and in ten years it will probably exceed the capabilities of a human brain. Computers perform approximately 70 % of all financial transactions today and IBM’s Watson now seems to give better customer advise than some human telephone hotlines. What does this imply for our future society?
Dirk Helbing
10. Big Data Society: Age of Reputation or Age of Discrimination?
Abstract
If we want Big Data to create societal progress, more transparency and participatory opportunities are needed to avoid discrimination and ensure that they are used in a scientifically sound, trustable, and socially beneficial way.
Dirk Helbing
11. Big Data, Privacy, and Trusted Web: What Needs to Be Done
Abstract
This perspective paper discusses challenges and risks of the information age, and the implications for the information and communication technologies that need to be built and operated. It addresses ethical and policy issues related with Big Data and how procedures for privacy-preserving data analyses can be established. It further proposes a concept for a future, self-organizing and trusted Web and discusses recommended legal regulations as well as the infrastructure and institutions needed.
Dirk Helbing
12. What the Digital Revolution Means for Us
Abstract
No country in the world is prepared for the digital era. We urgently need an Apollo-like programme and a Space Agency for information and communication technologies with a mission to develop the institutions and information infrastructures for the emerging digital society.
Dirk Helbing
13. Creating (“Making”) a Planetary Nervous System as Citizen Web
Abstract
The goal of the Planetary Nervous System is to create an open, public, intelligent software layer on top of the “Internet of Things” as the basic information infrastructure for the emerging digital societies of the twenty-first century.
Dirk Helbing
Metadaten
Titel
Thinking Ahead - Essays on Big Data, Digital Revolution, and Participatory Market Society
verfasst von
Dirk Helbing
Copyright-Jahr
2015
Verlag
Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN
978-3-319-15078-9
Print ISBN
978-3-319-15077-2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-15078-9