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2015 | Buch

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Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models

Insights from Scenario Analysis Increasing the Evidence Base

herausgegeben von: George Giannakidis, Maryse Labriet, Brian Ó Gallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buchreihe : Lecture Notes in Energy

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik"

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Über dieses Buch

This book highlights how energy-system models are used to underpin and support energy and climate mitigation policy decisions at national, multi-country and global levels. It brings together, for the first time in one volume, a range of methodological approaches and case studies of good modeling practice on a national and international scale from the IEA-ETSAP energy technology initiative. It provides insights for the reader into the rich and varied applications of energy-system models and the underlying methodologies and policy questions they can address. The book demonstrates how these models are used to answer complex policy questions, including those relating to energy security, climate change mitigation and the optimal allocation of energy resources. It will appeal to energy engineers and technology specialists looking for a rationale for innovation in the field of energy technologies and insights into their evolving costs and benefits. Energy economists will gain an understanding of the key future role of energy technologies and policy makers will learn how energy-system modeling teams can provide unique perspectives on national energy and environment challenges. The book is carefully structured into three parts which focus on i) policy decisions that have been underpinned by energy-system models, ii) specific aspects of supply and end-use sector modeling, including technology learning and behavior and iii) how additional insights can be gained from linking energy-system models with other models. The chapters elucidate key methodological features backed up with concrete applications. The book demonstrates the high degree of flexibility of the modeling tools used to represent extremely different energy systems, from national to global levels.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Introduction: Energy Systems Modelling for Decision-Making

Abstract

The role that energy modelling plays in improving the evidence base underpinning policy decisions is being increasingly recognized and valued. The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program is a unique network of energy modelling teams from all around the world, cooperating to establish, maintain and expand a consistent energy/economy/environment/engineering analytical capability mainly based on the MARKAL/TIMES family of models, under the aegis of the International Energy Agency. Energy systems models like MARKAL/TIMES models provide technology rich, least cost future energy systems pathways and have been used extensively to explore least cost options for transitioning to an energy secure system and a low carbon future. This chapter presents an overview of ETSAP’s history and objectives, introduces the main principles of energy system modelling and summarizes the different chapters of the book.

Alessandro Chiodi, George Giannakidis, Maryse Labriet, Brian Ó Gallachóir, GianCarlo Tosato

From Policy Insights to Policy Decisions

Frontmatter

Energy Policies Influenced by Energy Systems Modelling—Case Studies in UK, Ireland, Portugal and G8

Abstract

A key objective of IEA-ETSAP is to assist decision makers in robustly developing, implementing and assessing the impact of energy and climate mitigation policies. This chapter focuses on four case studies, in which there is clear evidence of a direct link between the use of MARKAL and TIMES scenario modelling activities and the resulting policy decisions. The case studies selected assess how the (i) UK MARKAL model informed the development of energy and climate mitigation policy in the UK, focusing on the Energy White Paper in 2003, the Energy White Paper in 2007 and the Climate Change Act in 2008; (ii) Irish TIMES model informed the development of climate mitigation legislation in Ireland in 2014 and Ireland’s negotiating position regarding the EU 2030 Climate Energy Package in 2014; (iii) TIMES_PT model informed climate policy in Portugal in the last 10 years and has supported the design of climate mitigation policies; (iv) IEA ETP Model informed the G8 in responding to the 2005 Gleneagles Plan of Action and has supported the work of the Major Economies Forum and Clean Energy Ministerial. This chapter collates methodologies and results from these different case studies and summarizes some key findings regarding (i) policy frameworks and goals; (ii) how policy makers have been intertwined with the modelling tool during the modelling process; (iii) the role of the economic stakeholders dialogue; (iv) main insights from the modelling exercises; (v) lessons learnt: from effective contributions to real limitations and (vi) recommendations.

Alessandro Chiodi, Peter G. Taylor, Júlia Seixas, Sofia Simões, Patrícia Fortes, João P. Gouveia, Luís Dias, Brian Ó Gallachóir

A Global Renewable Energy Roadmap: Comparing Energy Systems Models with IRENA’s REmap 2030 Project

Abstract

In 2014, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) published a global renewable energy roadmap—called REmap 2030—to double the share of renewables in the global energy mix by 2030 compared to 2010 (IRENA, A Renewable Energy Roadmap, 2014a). A REmap tool was developed to facilitate a transparent and open framework to aggregate the national renewable energy plans and/or scenarios of 26 countries. Unlike the energy systems models by IEA-ETSAP teams, however, the REmap tool does not account for trade-offs between renewable energy and energy efficiency activities, system planning issues like path dependency and investments in the grid infrastructure, competition for scarce resources—e.g. biomass—in the commodity prices, or dynamic cost developments as technologies get deployed over time. This chapter compares the REmap tool with the IEA-ETSAP models at two levels: the results and the insights. Based on the results comparison, it can be concluded that the REmap tool can be used as a way to explicitly engage national experts, to scope renewable energy options, and to compare results across countries. However, the ETSAP models provide detailed insights into the infrastructure requirements, competition between technologies and resources, and the role of energy efficiency needed for planning purposes. These insights are particularly relevant for countries with infrastructure constraints and/or ambitious renewable energy targets. As more and more countries are turning to renewables to secure their energy future, the REmap tool and the ETSAP models have complementary roles to play in engaging policy makers and national energy planners to advance renewables.

Ruud Kempener, Edi Assoumou, Alessandro Chiodi, Umberto Ciorba, Maria Gaeta, Dolf Gielen, Hiroshi Hamasaki, Amit Kanudia, Tom Kober, Maryse Labriet, Nadia Maïzi, Brian Ó Gallachóir, Deger Saygin, Júlia Seixas, Nicholas Wagner, Evelyn Wright

Energy Decisions in an Uncertain Climate and Technology Outlook: How Stochastic and Robust Methodologies Can Assist Policy-Makers

Abstract

Uncertain conditions may deeply affect the relevance of deterministic solutions proposed by optimization or equilibrium models as well as leave the decision maker in a quandary at the moment of defining policy. This chapter presents two applications of stochastic programming and robust optimization to climate and energy decisions using respectively TIAM-WORLD at the global level and MIRET in the case of France. At the global level, stochastic analysis demonstrates that the hedging strategy usually presents a smoother technology transition and is not equivalent to an average of deterministic solutions. Combined with a parametric analysis of the probability of the future outlooks, the approach produces a hedging strategy where the energy system prepares early for high mitigation even in the case of a low probability for such an outcome. Moreover, some technologies appear to be particularly appealing since they penetrate more in the hedging than in deterministic strategies; the penetration of gas power without carbon capture and sequestration in China, coal power plants with carbon capture in India, renewable electricity in Central and South America are examples of these “super-hedging” choices. In the case of the French transportation sector, robust optimization illustrates the crucial role of biofuels as a robust mitigation strategy in both moderate and severe emission reduction cases.

Maryse Labriet, Claire Nicolas, Stéphane Tchung-Ming, Amit Kanudia, Richard Loulou

Schemes for the Regional Allocation of Emission Allowances under Stringent Global Climate Policy

Abstract

In this chapter we investigate burden-sharing regimes for the allocation of greenhouse gas emission reduction obligations under a 2 °C long-term climate policy framework, and present our findings derived from an integrated energy-economy-climate assessment. In our analysis we focus on two different allocation schemes: a per-capita-based scheme, and a scheme aiming at equalising the climate policy costs among the world regions with respect to their economic capability. We find that, under a per capita based burden-sharing scheme, the amount of carbon certificates traded on the carbon market yields a cumulative capital transfer of 20 trillion US$ between 2020 and 2050, which is on average 680 billion US$/year. The main certificate selling regions are Africa and India and the main buyers South America and the Middle East. Conversely to the per capita based scheme, a burden-sharing regime that aims at equalising regional climate policy costs leads to a cumulative carbon market capita flow until 2050 of about one quarter with average annual certificate transactions worth 180 billion US$/year, with China and Other Developing Asia being the major certificate sellers and Western Europe the main buyer. Comparing both burden-sharing schemes with regard to the compensation of non-OECD countries’ climate change mitigation efforts via revenues from the global carbon certificate market reveals an advantage of the scheme based on climate policy costs over the per capita scheme, because the policy cost related scheme covers 12 % of the non-OECD’s climate policy costs of the first half of this century, whereas 4 % under the per capita scheme only.

Tom Kober, Bob van der Zwaan, Hilke Rösler

Assessment of Carbon Emissions Quotas with the Integrated TIMES and MERGE Model

Abstract

The success of climate change mitigation depends on the modalities for the extension of the Kyoto protocol after 2020. This refers to the appropriate level of GHG reduction imposed as emissions quotas in line with the 2 °C commitment. We perform a parametric analysis where increasingly stringent cumulative and global emission quota bounds are applied using the integrated TIMES and MERGE model (ITMM). The model integrates in one set of equations two hybrid top-down and bottom-up models both able to analyze technological change. The study assumes efficient policies and measures where all world regions accept a binding protocol in 2020 while mitigation policies will start already in 2015. However, this early introduction of efficient policies needs capital transfers for a fair burden sharing in favor of countries with low income and in that sense the model assumptions are critical. Marginal cost of carbon control of these optimistic policies are high (600–1000 $/t of carbon by 2050) but global GDP losses remain moderate and below 1.5 % per year.

Socrates Kypreos, Antti Lehtila

Integrating Policy Instruments into Energy System Models—From Theory to Application to Germany

Abstract

This chapter provides an overview of the use of bottom-up energy system models to evaluate the long-term effects of energy and climate policy instruments. The major benefits of this type of model for policy evaluation are the inclusion of all interactions within the energy system as well as the high level of technological detail. Progress, on the other hand, needs to be made in terms of the representation of the decision-making behavior of different economic agents and the inclusion of macroeconomic feedbacks. Flexible, endogenous modelling approaches for two important instrument categories are then outlined and applied to a case study on the German energy system: emissions trading systems and different support systems for renewable electricity. This scenario analysis shows how the explicit modelling of policy instruments in energy system models can provide quantitative policy insights, e.g. to analyze the interaction between different types of instruments or to compare alternative policy mechanisms which can be applied for the same political target.

Birgit Fais, Markus Blesl

Improving Efficiency in Kazakhstan’s Energy System

Abstract

Kazakhstan is one of the most energy-intensive countries in the world, almost 4 times higher than the world average and 7 times higher than the OECD average. There are various reasons for inefficiencies in Kazakhstan’s energy system: administrative and economic (statistical double counting of energy flows, above normative losses and low profitability), geographic (the extremely continental climate and low population density) and technical considerations (high share of coal in generation mix, high wear on main and auxiliary equipment in energy intensive sectors, high wear on electric lines, dilapidation of housing stock, and an absence of control systems for energy savings) all contribute to the high energy intensity. This study explores energy efficiency potential by analyzing the evolution of the Kazakh energy system. All the technical inefficiencies have been taken into consideration through the explicit representation of existing inefficient technologies/chains in a TIMES-based model. Under the assumptions of a market-oriented development of the economic system, even without specific policies (Business as Usual), the model suggests significant energy efficiency improvement: 22 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) by 2030 and a 40 % reduction in energy intensity of GDP by 2030. The more ambitious policy target of reducing energy intensity of GDP by 40 % by 2020 also appears easily achievable via economically viable solutions.

Aiymgul Kerimray, Kanat Baigarin, Aidyn Bakdolotov, Rocco De Miglio, GianCarlo Tosato

Ex Post and Prospective Analyses of Renewable Policies in Spain

Abstract

In this work, socioeconomic and environmental impacts associated to energy technologies in the current and future Spanish Energy System have been estimated. This information has provided the base from which to conduct two kinds of analyses. First, an Ex post analysis of renewable policies in Spain, where the net impact on social welfare associated to the progressive introduction of those energies in the energy system has been assessed using a partial cost-benefit analysis. Then, a prospective analysis of the Spanish energy system where the optimum energy mix, which leads to the largest social welfare under different energy scenarios, taking into account a medium-long term time horizon (2035), has been estimated using the national energy optimization model TIMES-Spain. The results of the Ex post analysis of the period 2005–2012 show an increase on social welfare due to the introduction of renewable energies. Nevertheless, when assessing the total expenditure of renewables support policies, the results show this support exceeds the economic value of the socioeconomic and environmental externalities calculated in this work. The prospective analysis results for the period 2010–2035 definitely recommend a support for renewable electricity generation technologies and the redesigning of renewables support policies to better reflect their external benefits with respect to the fossil alternatives.

Helena Cabal, Yolanda Lechón, Natalia Caldés, Cristina de la Rúa, Diego García-Gusano, Elena López-Bernabé, Inés López-Dóriga, Marta Santamaría

Modelling Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy for Finland

Abstract

Concretizing the roadmaps outlined for moving to a low carbon economy by 2050 into detailed policies is a challenging task. Using ETSAP-TIAM as the central modeling tool, we have analyzed the implications of low carbon policies within Europe, with a special focus on the Finnish energy system. The main objective of the work was to identify cost-effective pathways for moving into a low carbon economy by 2050, by creating a set of different storylines for the future society and economy. The analysis involved also linking the energy system model to an applied general equilibrium model and a forest sector partial equilibrium model for estimating the impacts on the overall economy as well as land-use change and forestry. The scenario results indicate that Finland has good opportunities for achieving its low carbon targets by 2050 due to its large natural resources. The major uncertainties are related to the application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and possible sustainability criteria for biomass.

Tiina Koljonen, Antti Lehtilä

Focussing on Specific Aspects of Supply and End-Use

Frontmatter

Methodological Significance of Temporal Granularity in Energy-Economic Models—Insights from the MARKAL/TIMES Framework

Abstract

One of the key attributes that distinguishes bottom-up energy modelling frameworks is the temporal depiction. In any given bottom-up model, the depiction across two dimensions—viz. model time horizon and intra-annual time resolution—has an implicit meaning for the framework and research questions to be answered. There are also tradeoffs between these two temporal dimensions in model design driven by computational resources, solver algorithm capabilities, data availability and methodological limitations. In the TIMES framework, the option to apply a higher intra-annual time resolution offers the potential to generate additional powerful insights into the electricity sector where fluctuations in supply and demand are significant, even though this feature alone is still less suitable for analyzing fully the dynamics of the sector. Nonetheless, the TIMES integrated system approaches offer additional capabilities which are not available in single-sector modeling approaches. This chapter provides a broad overview of temporal features in the MARKAL/TIMES energy modelling framework. The significance in terms of higher time resolution, along with trade-offs and benefits of an integrated system approach are discussed with a set of scenarios from the Swiss TIMES electricity and energy system models.

Ramachandran Kannan, Hal Turton, Evangelos Panos

Improved Representation of the European Power Grid in Long Term Energy System Models: Case Study of JRC-EU-TIMES

Abstract

This chapter describes a methodology to integrate DC power flow modeling and N − 1 security into JRC-EU-TIMES, a multiregional TIMES energy system model. It improves the accuracy of modeling cross-border transmission expansion especially for energy systems with higher penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). We describe three grid representations with increasing accuracy of modeling power flow constraints: (1) basic trade flow without DC power flow, (2) DC power flow with fixed line characteristics and (3) DC power flow with a discretization algorithm, endogenous grid characteristics and N − 1 contingency analysis. The last approach uses the newly developed Integrated TIMES–NEPLAN Software (ITNS) that couples JRC-EU-TIMES energy system modeling with NEPLAN-based electricity grid modeling. To evaluate the improvement of the JRC-EU-TIMES modeling mechanisms, the three grid representations are compared. We conclude that cross border transmission expansion is cost efficient regardless of the grid representation. The impact of power flow constraints is limited for the analyzed case study under the assumption of perfect markets. However, integrating these constraints is leading to slightly higher cross-border capacities for most countries mainly in periods with limited availability of variable renewable electricity. This occurs when grid extensions and peaking power in some strategic countries are more competitive than local peaking power for each country. This is possible without a substantial increase in model running time.

Wouter Nijs, Sofia Simoes, Alessandra Sgobbi, Pablo Ruiz-Castello, Christian Thiel, George Giannakidis, John Mantzaris, Kostas Tigas, Dionisios Dimitroulas, Pavlos Georgilakis, Costas Vournas

Highly Detailed TIMES Modeling to Analyze Interactions Between Air Quality and Climate Regulations in the United States

Abstract

This chapter describes highly detailed modeling of existing coal-fired units in the US power sector within the FACETS TIMES model. Such detailed modeling is necessary wherever the existing stock plays a key role in determining policy cost. The soon-to-be-implemented Mercury and Air Toxics (MATS) regulation imposes unit-level emissions rate constraints on nearly 1100 coal-fired units, forcing retrofit or retire decisions at a large portion of the existing fleet. Covered emissions and retrofit costs depend in a detailed way on unit configuration and coal quality, forcing development of new techniques to handle the enormous expansion in model size and detail. These retrofit/retire decisions are being made under uncertainty about future carbon policies for the sector. FACETS was used to compare “foresight” scenarios in which the model could “see” both the MATS requirements and a power sector clean energy standard (CES) to “myopic” scenarios in which the MATS decisions made in the Reference scenario are fixed in the model solution up through the MATS compliance window in model year 2018, after which the model is free to begin responding to the CES. The overall national costs of myopia were found to be small, except when the carbon policy ramps up very quickly after air quality compliance decisions are made, but significant regional heterogeneity exists. Stranded asset costs from retrofitted units that must be underutilized or abandoned later range from $2 to 8 billion in the myopic cases. Substantially fewer retrofits are undertaken in the foresight cases, reducing stranded asset costs in some regions by up to 100 %.

Evelyn Wright, Amit Kanudia

An Analysis of the Impacts of New Oil Pipeline Projects on the Canadian Energy Sector with a TIMES Model for Canada

Abstract

The oil industry currently plays a major role in the Canadian economy. In the future, further developments of the oil sector will be affected by the ability to transport crude oil (mainly from Western Canada) to consuming regions in Canada and abroad. This chapter analyzes different crude oil exportation scenarios based on existing pipeline expansions and the development of new pipelines. We use for this a multi-regional TIMES energy model for Canada. Our results indicate that: (i) the exporting capacity will be an important driver for oil production levels in Canada, and (ii) impacts on the other Canadian energy sectors are rather limited.

Kathleen Vaillancourt, Yuri Alcocer, Olivier Bahn

Multi-cluster Technology Learning in TIMES: A Transport Sector Case Study with TIAM-UCL

Abstract

The costs of technologies often fall over time due to a range of processes including learning-by-doing. This is a well-characterized concept in the economics of innovation, in which learning about a particular technology, and hence cost reduction, is related to cumulative investments in that technology. This chapter provides a case study applying technology learning endogenously in a TIMES model. It describes many of the key challenges in modelling technology learning endogenously, both in terms of the interpretation and policy relevance of the results, and in terms of methodological challenges. The chapter then presents a case study, exploring a multi-cluster learning approach where many key technologies (fuel cells, automotive batteries, and electric drivetrains) are shared across a set of transport modes (cars, buses and LGVs) and technologies (hybrid and plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles, battery electric vehicles, hybrid and plug-in hybrid petrol and diesel vehicles). The multi-region TIAM-UCL Global energy system model has been used to model the multi-cluster approach. The analysis is used to explore the competitive and/or complementary relationship between hydrogen and electricity as low-carbon transport fuels.

Gabrial Anandarajah, Will McDowall

Modal Shift of Passenger Transport in a TIMES Model: Application to Ireland and California

Abstract

Climate change mitigation clearly requires a focus on transport that should include improved representation of travel behaviour change in addition to increased vehicle efficiency and low-carbon fuels. Energy system models focus however on technology and fuel switching and tend to poorly incorporate travel behaviour. Conversely, transport demand modelling generally fails to address energy and climate policy trade-offs. This chapter seeks to make energy systems analysis more holistic by introducing modal choice within passenger transport in a TIMES model, to allow trade-offs between behaviour and technology choices explicit. Travel demand in TIMES models is typically exogenous—no competition exists between alternative modes. A simple illustrative TIMES model is described, where competition between modes is enabled by imposing a constraint on overall travel time in the system. This constraint represents the empirically observed travel time budget of individuals, constraining the model choosing between faster and more expensive modes (e.g. cars) and slower but cheaper mode (e.g. buses or rail). Further, a new variable is introduced, called travel time investment, which acts as a proxy for infrastructure investments to reduce the time associated with travel, to enable investment in alternative modes of transport as a means of CO₂ mitigation.

Hannah E. Daly, Kalai Ramea, Alessandro Chiodi, Sonia Yeh, Maurizio Gargiulo, Brian Ó Gallachóir

The Role of Energy Service Demand in Carbon Mitigation: Combining Sector Analysis and China TIMES-ED Modelling

Abstract

China’s primary energy consumption increased from 1.46 btce (billion tons of coal equivalent) in 2000 to 3.25 btce in 2010, greatly influenced by energy service demand growth. For example, crude steel production rose from 152 to 637 million tons, urban per capita floor space from 10 to 21.5 square meters, passenger transport turnover from 1226 to 2789 billion passenger km (pkm), and freight transport turnover from 443 to 14,184 billion tons km (tkm). This trend in energy service demand will be a critical factor in the level of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the future. In this chapter, multiple approaches, including the stock-based model, the saturation model, the discrete choices model, and so on, are used to project energy service demands from different demand sectors. The projections of energy service demand are used as inputs in the China TIMES-ED model to generate a reference scenario. Several carbon constraint scenarios have been designed to analyze the role of energy service demand reductions in industry, building and transport in the mitigation of carbon emissions in China.

Wenying Chen, Xiang Yin, Hongjun Zhang, Ding Ma, Jincheng Shi, Weilong Huang, Nan Li

Gaining Additional Insights Through Model Coupling

Frontmatter

Soft-Linking Exercises Between TIMES, Power System Models and Housing Stock Models

Abstract

Soft-linking TIMES models with carefully selected complementary models can provide useful additional insights into the results from the TIMES model and can usefully scrutinize specific TIMES results in greater detail with another model. This multi-model approach can take advantage of the individual strengths of different modelling approaches. This chapter collates methodologies and results from a number of soft-linking exercises with TIMES. Two specific examples are given; firstly the soft-linking of TIMES to a power system model to investigate the TIMES results and provide additional insights into power system flexibility, reliability and market issues. The second example comprises the soft-linking of a TIMES model to a power system and a housing stock model to explore the impacts of increased electrification of residential heating on the power system and associated emissions from the residential sector. These examples show how a multi-model approach and soft-linking can provide a strong complementary analysis to TIMES modelling exercises and generate insights into results that otherwise would be difficult to achieve with a single model approach.

J. P. Deane, Francesco Gracceva, Alessandro Chiodi, Maurizio Gargiulo, Brian Ó Gallachóir

Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—Global Perspectives

Abstract

In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a global level. The next chapter of this book focuses on a national perspective. The range of economic impacts is regionally dependent upon the stage of economic development, the level of industrialisation, energy intensity of exports, and competition effects due to rates of relative decarbonisation. Developed nation’s decarbonisation targets are estimated to result in a manageable GDP loss in the region of 2 % by 2050. Energy intensive export driven developing countries such as China and India, and fossil fuel exporting nations can expect significantly higher GDP loss of up to 5 % GDP per year by mid-century.

James Glynn, Patrícia Fortes, Anna Krook-Riekkola, Maryse Labriet, Marc Vielle, Socrates Kypreos, Antti Lehtilä, Peggy Mischke, Hancheng Dai, Maurizio Gargiulo, Per Ivar Helgesen, Tom Kober, Phil Summerton, Bruno Merven, Sandrine Selosse, Kenneth Karlsson, Neil Strachan, Brian Ó Gallachóir

Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System—National Perspectives

Abstract

In a climate constrained future, hybrid energy-economy model coupling gives additional insight into interregional competition, trade, industrial delocalisation and overall macroeconomic consequences of decarbonising the energy system. Decarbonising the energy system is critical in mitigating climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a national level. The preceding chapter focuses on a global perspective. The modelling studies outlined here show that burden sharing rules and national revenue recycling schemes for carbon tax are critical for the long-term viability of economic growth and equitable engagement on combating climate change. Traditional computable general equilibrium models and energy systems models solved in isolation can misrepresent the long run carbon cost and underestimate the demand response caused by technological paradigm shifts in a decarbonised energy system. The approaches outlined within have guided the first evidence based decarbonisation legislation and continue to provide additional insights as increased sectoral disaggregation in hybrid modelling approaches is achieved.

Assessing Climate Impacts on the Energy Sector with TIAM-WORLD: Focus on Heating and Cooling and Hydropower Potential

Abstract

Much research is still needed to understand the climate vulnerability of the energy sector and to identify cost-effective adaptation options. This chapter explores the coupling of the World TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-WORLD) with an emulated version of the climate model PLASIM-ENTS to assess the impacts of future temperature and precipitation changes on the heating and cooling subsector and available hydropower. An absence of climate feedback induced by the adaptation of the energy system to future heating and cooling needs was found for a 1.6–5.7 °C range of long-term global mean temperature increase: when aggregated at the global level, some changes compensate others, and heating and cooling represent a relatively small contributor to total energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at the regional level in terms of additional power capacity, mostly coal power plants, to satisfy the additional cooling needs. Reduced needs for heating affect gas and coal heating systems more than biomass and electric heaters, reflecting higher costs of these heating options in the longer term. Available hydropower is estimated to increase on a seasonal basis in most regions under future climate change. It could therefore contribute to supply the additional electricity needed for cooling in regions where both future cooling needs and hydropower potential are expected to increase. Hydropower results are however characterized by high uncertainty due to uncertainties in projected precipitation changes as well as the relatively coarse resolution of PLASIM-ENTS.

Maryse Labriet, Markus Biberacher, Philip B. Holden, Neil R. Edwards, Amit Kanudia, Richard Loulou

Coupling World and European Models: Energy Trade and Energy Security in Europe

Abstract

Energy modelling can provide a knowledge basis for tackling the security of energy supply issue at different geographical levels. This chapter presents an application of the coupling of the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model and of the Pan European TIMES model through a series of trade links described and characterised in the REACCESS corridor model. The coupling was developed during the EU FP7 REACCESS project and was further improved and updated during a follow-up phase. The application focuses on the analysis of security of supply to Europe via energy corridors. A new methodology for the assessment of energy security, addressing the risk associated to each supply, is presented together with a scenario analysis related to some of the most populated of the EU’s Member States and to the European Union as a whole. The scenario analysis results show a sample of the possible assessments that stakeholders might be willing to rely on to address the effects of communitarian policies and targets: the preformed analysis, for example, unveils that a risk reduction at communitarian level may not univocally be translated into a benefit for individual Member States.

Raffaella Gerboni, Daniele Grosso, Evasio Lavagno, Amit Kanudia, GianCarlo Tosato

Titel: Informing Energy and Climate Policies Using Energy Systems Models
herausgegeben von: George Giannakidis
Maryse Labriet
Brian Ó Gallachóir
GianCarlo Tosato
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-16540-0
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-16539-4
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0