12. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Ailanthus altissima, an Invasive Terrestrial Plant Species in Măcin Mountains National Park (Romania)

Under current global change conditions, invasive species show an increasing tendency to spread over larger areas in close relationship with their triggering environmental driving forces. Current research is seeking to assess the potential distribution of the invasive terrestrial plant species (ITPS) Ailanthus altissima in a natural protected area, the Măcin Mountains National Park (II IUCN category). The protected area is located in the southeastern part of Romania, sheltering a combination of Pontic, steppe, and well-preserved sub-Mediterranean and Balkan forest ecosystems. The authors propose a geographic GIS-based quantitative statistical analysis (potential distribution model, ITPS-PODISMOD) of A. altissima using bivariate analysis that takes into consideration the relationship between variables, such as A. altissima as the dependent variable and its driving factors as independent variables. Concurrently, each driving factor was ranked depending on the relationships between the analysed species and its ecological conditions. Thus, an ITPS-PODISMOD map displaying areas with different potential distribution of A. altissima in relationship to the key environmental driving factors has resulted.