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Erschienen in:
2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Decision Making for Complex Ecosystems: A Technique for Establishing Causality in Dynamic Systems
verfasst von : Ryan A. Kirk, Dave A. Kirk, Peter Pesheck
Erschienen in: HCI International 2016 – Posters' Extended Abstracts
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Abstract
Understanding naturalistic human use of technology requires accounting for people, processes, and technologies. Modern decision support system strive to facilitate decision making in such ecosystems. However, modeling interaction between people and technology as constrained by explicit or implicit processes quickly becomes a complex spiral of relationships. In order to determine cause and effect in these complex ecosystems we need a form of causal inference that can overcome the limitations of linear cause-effect analysis.
Complex systems are the result of feedback that takes place inside a dynamic systems. In dynamic systems the future values for outcome variables are due to the interactions of causal variables as modified by a shared, often hidden, function. Taken’s theorem states that time series variables are causally linked if they are from the same dynamic system. This paper presents the development and application of an approach that examines time-offset relations between variables in order to determine their causal relations. This research examines the effectiveness of this technique through its application to a microwave heating problem.