1 Introduction
2 Background
2.1 Overview of Climate Conditions
2.2 Extreme Events
2.3 Rice Production
2.3.1 Production Systems
2.3.2 Irrigation
2.4 The Physiological Relationship Between Rice and Weather Inputs
2.4.1 The Role of Water
2.4.2 The Role of Temperature
3 Analysis I: Estimating the Relationship Between Rice and Climate Change
3.1 Methods
3.1.1 Average Weather Models
Equation 1: Panel Model of Average Weather Effects
Equation 2: Panel Model of Average Weather Effects
3.1.2 Modeling Extreme Events
Equation 3: Panel Model of Extreme Event Effects
3.2 Data
3.2.1 Rice Yields
3.2.2 Weather Conditions
3.2.3 Extreme Events
3.2.4 Data Limitations
3.3 Results
(1) | (2) | |
---|---|---|
Dry season | Wet season | |
Min temperature
| 0.045 | −0.046 |
(0.028) | (0.038) | |
Max temperature
| −0.013 | 0.118*
|
(0.053) | (0.066) | |
Precipitation | −0.001**
| 0.001***
|
(0.000) | (0.000) | |
Mean log-yield | 1.530 | 1.277 |
No obs | 578 | 683 |
R2
| 0.691 | 0.732 |
(1) | (2) | |
---|---|---|
Dry season | Wet season | |
Min temperature
| −0.099 | 1.007*
|
(0.481) | (0.427) | |
Min temperature square | 0.003 | −0.024*
|
(0.010) | (0.010) | |
Max temperature
| 0.249 | −0.490 |
(0.692) | (0.358) | |
Max temperature square | −0.004 | 0.010**
|
(0.011) | (0.005) | |
Precipitation | −0.000***
| 0.000*
|
(0.000) | (0.000) | |
Mean log-yield | 1.530 | 1.277 |
No obs | 578 | 683 |
R2
| 0.691 | 0.739 |
Region/province | Area (% of total) | Production (% of total) | Yield |
---|---|---|---|
A. Northern
|
21.55
|
18.91
|
3.26
|
Phongsaly | 1.98 | 1.50 | 2.81 |
Luangnamtha | 1.78 | 1.78 | 3.7 |
Oudomxay | 2.62 | 2.21 | 3.13 |
Bokeo | 2.76 | 2.70 | 3.63 |
Luangprabang | 3.91 | 2.63 | 2.51 |
Huaphanh | 3.21 | 2.83 | 3.28 |
Xayabury | 5.28 | 5.27 | 3.7 |
B. Central
|
52.63
|
54.18
|
3.85
|
Vientiane Municipality | 8.14 | 9.82 | 4.49 |
Xiengkhouang | 3.16 | 3.04 | 3.58 |
Vientiane | 7.10 | 7.76 | 4.12 |
Borikhamxay | 4.69 | 4.60 | 3.79 |
Khammuane | 7.61 | 7.30 | 3.56 |
Savannakhet | 21.92 | 21.66 | 3.67 |
Xaysomboun | 25.82 | 26.92 | 3.91 |
C. Southern
|
9.32
|
8.74
|
3.51
|
Saravan | 1.18 | 1.09 | 3.43 |
Sekong | 12.74 | 15.07 | 4.45 |
Chmpasack | 2.58 | 2.02 | 2.91 |
Attapeu | 21.55 | 18.91 | 3.26 |
3.3.1 Evaluating the Model
(1) | |
---|---|
Min temperature
| −0.074* |
(0.032) | |
Max temperature
| 0.052** |
(0.025) | |
Precipitation | 0.000**
|
(0.000) | |
Mean log-yield | 7.89 |
No obs | 337 |
R2
| 0.854 |
Adjusted R2
| 0.836 |