Cross-validation based single response adaptive design of experiments for Kriging metamodeling of deterministic computer simulations

A new approach for single response adaptive design of deterministic computer experiments is presented. The approach is called SFCVT, for Space-Filling Cross-Validation Tradeoff. SFCVT uses metamodeling to obtain an estimate of cross-validation errors, which are maximized subject to a constraint on space filling to determine sample points in the design space. The proposed method is compared, using a test suite of forty four numerical examples, with three DOE methods from the literature. The numerical test examples can be classified into symmetric and asymmetric functions. Symmetric examples refer to functions for which the extreme points are located symmetrically in the design space and asymmetric examples are those for which the extreme regions are not located in a symmetric fashion in the design space. Based upon the comparison results for the numerical examples, it is shown that SFCVT performs better than an existing adaptive and a non-adaptive DOE method for asymmetric multimodal functions with high nonlinearity near the boundary, and is comparable for symmetric multimodal functions and other test problems. The proposed approach is integrated with a multi-scale heat exchanger optimization tool to reduce the computational effort involved in the design of novel air-to-water heat exchangers. The resulting designs are shown to be significantly more compact than mainstream heat exchanger designs.