Numerical simulations to assess thermal potential at Tauranga low-temperature geothermal system, New Zealand

Tauranga low-temperature geothermal system (New Zealand) has been used for the last 40 years for direct uses including space heating, bathing and greenhouses. Warm-water springs in the area are between 22 and 39 °C, with well temperatures up to 67 °C at 750 m depth. A heat and fluid flow model of the system is used to determine reservoir properties and assess thermal potential. The model covers 130 km by 70 km to 2 km depth, and was calibrated against temperatures measured in 17 wells. Modelling shows that to maintain the observed primarily conductive heat flow regime, bulk permeability is ≤2.5 × 10⁻¹⁴ m² in sedimentary cover and ≤1 × 10⁻¹⁶ m² in the underlying volcanic rocks. The preferred model (R ² = 0.9) corresponds to thermal conductivities of 1.25 and 1.8 W/m² for sedimentary and volcanic rocks, respectively, and maximum heat flux of 350 mW/m². The total surface heat flow is 258 MW over 2,200 km². Heat flux is highest under Tauranga City, which may be related to inferred geology. Model simulations give insights into rock properties and the dynamics of heat flow in this low-temperature geothermal system, and provide a basis to estimate the effects of extracting hot fluid.