Technology development for electric vehicles under new energy vehicle credit regulation in China: scenarios through 2030

The newly launched new energy vehicle credit regulation scheme is expected to have a dramatic impact on the development of the Chinese and global new energy vehicle markets. This paper establishes a bottom-up framework to estimate the impacts of regulation on the technological trends of battery electric vehicles based on the most up-to-date data from the market in China. The results suggest that mini-electric cars will always be the most credit cost-effective. Moreover, 350 km will be the optimal driving range under the credit regulation. With the development of energy-saving technologies, midsize electric vehicles will increase in popularity before 2020 and be the first to receive the highest credit of 6. Additionally, promoted by the regulation, the investment in energy-saving technologies will reduce the cost of batteries and lead to higher credits, especially for large-class and high electric range vehicles. However, the regulation likely faces the risk of losing this positive effect in 2025 or even earlier. To avoid such a circumstance, the relevant policies should be modified before such a scenario occurs.