Breeding migration and population stability

We have modeled habitat shift for reproduction to examine the relationship between the timing of migration and population stability, by modifying Takimoto’s (Am Nat 162:93–109, 2003) consumer–resource model with a consumer’s ontogenetic niche shift. We found that equilibrium was always locally unstable if migration occurs at a fixed time or level of energy storage, whereas it could be stable if the timing of migration was adaptively flexible to maximize reproductive output. The general conditions for stability were safer breeding rather than feeding habitat and abundant resources at the feeding habitat. These results imply that both adopting an adaptive plastic strategy in the timing of migration and choosing to migrate from a rich feeding habitat to a safe breeding habitat can contribute to population stability. We also found that reduced reproductive success with delays in migration, and the survival rate after reproduction, had complicated effects on stability, depending on resource availability at the feeding habitat. The equilibrium was more likely to be stable when reproduction success was only slightly (or greatly) reduced or survival rate was high (or low) if the feeding habitat was rich (or poor). These are significant predictions for ecological study of migrating animals.