Modi operandi for cargo theft in EMEA—A seasonality analysis

This paper identifies patterns and trends in cargo theft by analysing seasonal variations (by time of year and time of week) in the relationship between value (reported stolen value) and various reported modi operandi. This research is exploratory in nature; it is based on theories derived from criminology and logistics as well as secondary data related to cargo theft. For practical purposes, the research is geographically limited to EMEA; however, the frame of reference is applicable to the analysis of antagonistic threats to transport worldwide. Though patterns differ across categories, for some modi operandi, seasonal patterns are found across both months of the year and days of the week. Despite variations in hot spots, incident categories, stolen and endangered objects, and handling methods, the basic theoretical framework is generally applicable. This research is limited by the content and classificatory scheme of the TAPA EMEA IIS database. However, this is the best available database and it contains anonymous reports that are mainly from TAPA member companies that are in the industry itself.