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Erschienen in:
1997 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Managing the Herd: Price Forecasts for California Cattle Production
verfasst von : Lorraine M. Egan, Arthur M. Havenner
Erschienen in: Applications of Computer Aided Time Series Modeling
Verlag: Springer New York
Enthalten in: Professional Book Archive
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A state space model of vertically integrated California cattle prices is constructed and tested in and out of sample. The state space model provides more accurate forecasts than a vector autoregressive model or futures market prices. Since the weight gain characteristics of holding cattle over the relevant production periods are well known, the primary uncertainty lies in the prices. Dependable price forecasts permit market participants to optimize their purchases and sales.