Skip to main content

2012 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

4. Model Structure Identification and the Growth of Knowledge

verfasst von : M. B. Beck, Z. Lin, J. D. Stigter

Erschienen in: System Identification, Environmental Modelling, and Control System Design

Verlag: Springer London

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This chapter honors Peter, then, in recounting my career-long experience (1970–2010) of staring down the devilishly difficult: the problem of model structure identification—of using models for discovery. I still regard this matter as one of the grand challenges of environmental modeling (Beck et al., White Paper, 2009). If I appear modest about our progress in the presence of such enormity, so I am. But let no-one presume that I am therefore not greatly enthused by the progress I believe I and my students (now colleagues) have made over these four decades. It has been a privilege to be allowed the time to work on such a most attractive and engaging topic.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Fußnoten
1
It did not, as it happens. The two co-exist fruitfully today, notwithstanding the supposed academic inferiority of the latter.
 
2
The EPCL, a platform for real-time monitoring of water quality in a variety of aquatic environments, was operated from 1997 through 2008. All the data bases gathered with it are archived in the Georgia Watershed Information System (GWIS) and are publicly and freely available for downloading and analysis at www.​georgiawis.​org.
 
Literatur
1.
Zurück zum Zitat Alvarez-Vasquez, F., Sims, K.L., Cowart, L.A., Okamoto, Y., Voit, E.O., Hannun, Y.A.: Simulation and validation of modelled sphingolipid metabolism in Saccharomyces Cerevisiae. Nature 433, 425–430 (2005) CrossRef Alvarez-Vasquez, F., Sims, K.L., Cowart, L.A., Okamoto, Y., Voit, E.O., Hannun, Y.A.: Simulation and validation of modelled sphingolipid metabolism in Saccharomyces Cerevisiae. Nature 433, 425–430 (2005) CrossRef
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B.: The application of control and systems theory to problems of river pollution. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Cambridge, UK (1973) Beck, M.B.: The application of control and systems theory to problems of river pollution. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Cambridge, UK (1973)
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B.: Model structure identification from experimental data. In: Halfon, E. (ed.) Theoretical Systems Ecology: Advances and Case Studies, pp. 259–289. Academic, New York (1979) Beck, M.B.: Model structure identification from experimental data. In: Halfon, E. (ed.) Theoretical Systems Ecology: Advances and Case Studies, pp. 259–289. Academic, New York (1979)
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B.: Uncertainty, system identification and the prediction of water quality. In: Beck, M.B., van Straten, G. (eds.) Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality, pp. 3–68. Springer, Berlin (1983) Beck, M.B.: Uncertainty, system identification and the prediction of water quality. In: Beck, M.B., van Straten, G. (eds.) Uncertainty and Forecasting of Water Quality, pp. 3–68. Springer, Berlin (1983)
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B.: Structures, failure, inference, and prediction. In: Barker, H.A., Young, P.C. (eds.) Identification and System Parameter Estimation, pp. 1443–1448. Pergamon, Oxford (1985) Beck, M.B.: Structures, failure, inference, and prediction. In: Barker, H.A., Young, P.C. (eds.) Identification and System Parameter Estimation, pp. 1443–1448. Pergamon, Oxford (1985)
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B.: Water quality modeling: a review of the analysis of uncertainty. Water Resour. Res. 23(8), 1393–1442 (1987) CrossRef Beck, M.B.: Water quality modeling: a review of the analysis of uncertainty. Water Resour. Res. 23(8), 1393–1442 (1987) CrossRef
7.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B. (ed.): Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto. Elsevier, Oxford (2002), 473 pp. Beck, M.B. (ed.): Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto. Elsevier, Oxford (2002), 473 pp.
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B.: Model evaluation and performance. In: El-Shaarawi, A.H., Piegorsch, W.W. (eds.) Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 3, pp. 1275–1279. Wiley, Chichester (2002) Beck, M.B.: Model evaluation and performance. In: El-Shaarawi, A.H., Piegorsch, W.W. (eds.) Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 3, pp. 1275–1279. Wiley, Chichester (2002)
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B.: Structural change: a definition. In: Beck, M.B. (ed.) Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto, pp. 51–60. Elsevier, Amsterdam (2002) CrossRef Beck, M.B.: Structural change: a definition. In: Beck, M.B. (ed.) Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto, pp. 51–60. Elsevier, Amsterdam (2002) CrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B., Young, P.C.: Systematic identification of DO-BOD model structure. J. Environ. Eng. Div. 102(5), 909–927 (1976). Proceedings American Society of Civil Engineers Beck, M.B., Young, P.C.: Systematic identification of DO-BOD model structure. J. Environ. Eng. Div. 102(5), 909–927 (1976). Proceedings American Society of Civil Engineers
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B., Stigter, J.D., Lloyd Smith, D.: D: Elasto-plastic deformation of the structure. In: Beck, M.B. (ed.) Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto, pp. 323–350. Elsevier, Oxford (2002) CrossRef Beck, M.B., Stigter, J.D., Lloyd Smith, D.: D: Elasto-plastic deformation of the structure. In: Beck, M.B. (ed.) Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto, pp. 323–350. Elsevier, Oxford (2002) CrossRef
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Beck, M.B., Gupta, H., Rastetter, E., Shoemaker, C., Tarboton, D., Butler, R., Edelson, D., Graber, H., Gross, L., Harmon, T., McLaughlin, D., Paola, C., Peters, D., Scavia, D., Schnoor, J.L., Weber, L.: Grand challenges of the future for environmental modeling. White Paper, National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia (2009) (ISBN: 978-1-61584-248-3) Beck, M.B., Gupta, H., Rastetter, E., Shoemaker, C., Tarboton, D., Butler, R., Edelson, D., Graber, H., Gross, L., Harmon, T., McLaughlin, D., Paola, C., Peters, D., Scavia, D., Schnoor, J.L., Weber, L.: Grand challenges of the future for environmental modeling. White Paper, National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia (2009) (ISBN: 978-1-61584-248-3)
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M.: Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. Holden Day, San Francisco (1970) MATH Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M.: Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. Holden Day, San Francisco (1970) MATH
14.
Zurück zum Zitat Brun, R., Reichert, P., Künsch, H.R.: Practical identifiability analysis of large environmental simulation models. Water Resour. Res. 37(4), 1015–1030 (2001) CrossRef Brun, R., Reichert, P., Künsch, H.R.: Practical identifiability analysis of large environmental simulation models. Water Resour. Res. 37(4), 1015–1030 (2001) CrossRef
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Brun, R., Kühni, M., Siegrist, H., Gujer, W., Reichert, P.: Practical identifiability of ASM2d parameters—systematic selection and tuning of parameter subsets. Water Res. 36(16), 4113–4127 (2002) CrossRef Brun, R., Kühni, M., Siegrist, H., Gujer, W., Reichert, P.: Practical identifiability of ASM2d parameters—systematic selection and tuning of parameter subsets. Water Res. 36(16), 4113–4127 (2002) CrossRef
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Hunt, C.A., Ropella, G.E.P., Lam, T.N., Tang, J., Kim, S.H.J., Engelberg, J.A., Sheikh-Bahaei, S.: At the biological modeling and simulation frontier. Pharm. Res. 26(11), 2369–2400 (2009). doi:10.1007/s11095-009-9958-3 CrossRef Hunt, C.A., Ropella, G.E.P., Lam, T.N., Tang, J., Kim, S.H.J., Engelberg, J.A., Sheikh-Bahaei, S.: At the biological modeling and simulation frontier. Pharm. Res. 26(11), 2369–2400 (2009). doi:10.​1007/​s11095-009-9958-3 CrossRef
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Lin, Z.: Modeling environmental systems under uncertainty: towards a synthesis of data-based and theory-based models. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia (2003) Lin, Z.: Modeling environmental systems under uncertainty: towards a synthesis of data-based and theory-based models. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia (2003)
18.
19.
Zurück zum Zitat Lin, Z., Beck, M.B.: Understanding complex environmental systems: a dual approach. Environmetrics 18(1), 11–26 (2007b) MathSciNetCrossRef Lin, Z., Beck, M.B.: Understanding complex environmental systems: a dual approach. Environmetrics 18(1), 11–26 (2007b) MathSciNetCrossRef
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Lin, Z., Beck, M.B.: Accounting for structural error and uncertainty in a model: An approach based on model parameters as stochastic processes. Environ. Model. Softw. (2010, in press) Lin, Z., Beck, M.B.: Accounting for structural error and uncertainty in a model: An approach based on model parameters as stochastic processes. Environ. Model. Softw. (2010, in press)
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Ljung, L.: Asymptotic behaviour of the extended Kalman filter as a parameter estimator. IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 24, 36–50 (1979) MathSciNetMATHCrossRef Ljung, L.: Asymptotic behaviour of the extended Kalman filter as a parameter estimator. IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 24, 36–50 (1979) MathSciNetMATHCrossRef
22.
Zurück zum Zitat MacFarlane, A.G.J.: Interactive computing: a revolutionary medium for teaching and design. Comput. Control J. 1(4), 149–158 (1990) CrossRef MacFarlane, A.G.J.: Interactive computing: a revolutionary medium for teaching and design. Comput. Control J. 1(4), 149–158 (1990) CrossRef
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Mooney, C.: Storm World—Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming. Harcourt, Orlando (2007) Mooney, C.: Storm World—Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming. Harcourt, Orlando (2007)
24.
Zurück zum Zitat NRC: Models in Environmental Regulatory Decision Making. National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington (2007), 267 pp NRC: Models in Environmental Regulatory Decision Making. National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington (2007), 267 pp
25.
Zurück zum Zitat NSF: Sensors for environmental observatories. Report of the NSF-sponsored Workshop, December 2004, National Science Foundation (2005), 64 pp NSF: Sensors for environmental observatories. Report of the NSF-sponsored Workshop, December 2004, National Science Foundation (2005), 64 pp
26.
Zurück zum Zitat NSF: Simulation-based engineering science: revolutionizing engineering science through simulation. Report of the National Science Foundation Blue Ribbon Panel, National Science Foundation (2006), 65 pp NSF: Simulation-based engineering science: revolutionizing engineering science through simulation. Report of the National Science Foundation Blue Ribbon Panel, National Science Foundation (2006), 65 pp
27.
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Norton, J.P.: Optimal smoothing in the identification of linear time-varying systems. Proc. Inst. Electr. Eng. 122, 663–668 (1975) CrossRef Norton, J.P.: Optimal smoothing in the identification of linear time-varying systems. Proc. Inst. Electr. Eng. 122, 663–668 (1975) CrossRef
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Omlin, M., Brun, R., Reichert, P.: Biogeochemical model of lake Zürich: sensitivity, identifiability and uncertainty analysis. Ecol. Model. 141(1–3), 105–123 (2001) CrossRef Omlin, M., Brun, R., Reichert, P.: Biogeochemical model of lake Zürich: sensitivity, identifiability and uncertainty analysis. Ecol. Model. 141(1–3), 105–123 (2001) CrossRef
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Oppenheimer, M., O’Neill, B.C., Webster, M., Agrawala, S.: The limits of consensus. Science 317, 1505–1506 (2007) CrossRef Oppenheimer, M., O’Neill, B.C., Webster, M., Agrawala, S.: The limits of consensus. Science 317, 1505–1506 (2007) CrossRef
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Petersen, B., Gernaey, K., Vanrolleghem, PA: Practical identifiability of model parameters by combined respirometric-titrimetric measurements. Water Sci. Technol. 43(7), 347–355 (2001) Petersen, B., Gernaey, K., Vanrolleghem, PA: Practical identifiability of model parameters by combined respirometric-titrimetric measurements. Water Sci. Technol. 43(7), 347–355 (2001)
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Popper, K.R.: The Unending Quest: An Intellectual Autobiography. Fontana-Collins, Glasgow (1976) Popper, K.R.: The Unending Quest: An Intellectual Autobiography. Fontana-Collins, Glasgow (1976)
33.
Zurück zum Zitat Raick, C., Soetart, K., Grégoire, M.: Model complexity and performance: how far can we simplify? Prog. Oceanogr. 70, 27–57 (2006) CrossRef Raick, C., Soetart, K., Grégoire, M.: Model complexity and performance: how far can we simplify? Prog. Oceanogr. 70, 27–57 (2006) CrossRef
34.
Zurück zum Zitat Stigter, J.D.: The development and application of a continuous-discrete recursive prediction error algorithm in environmental systems analysis. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia (1997) Stigter, J.D.: The development and application of a continuous-discrete recursive prediction error algorithm in environmental systems analysis. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia (1997)
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Stigter, J.D., Beck, M.B.: On the development and application of a continuous-discrete recursive prediction error algorithm. Math. Biosci. 191(2), 143–158 (2004) MathSciNetMATHCrossRef Stigter, J.D., Beck, M.B.: On the development and application of a continuous-discrete recursive prediction error algorithm. Math. Biosci. 191(2), 143–158 (2004) MathSciNetMATHCrossRef
36.
Zurück zum Zitat Stigter, J.D., Vries, D., Keesman, K.J.: On adaptive optimal input design: a bioreactor case study. AIChE J. 52(9), 3290–3296 (2006) CrossRef Stigter, J.D., Vries, D., Keesman, K.J.: On adaptive optimal input design: a bioreactor case study. AIChE J. 52(9), 3290–3296 (2006) CrossRef
37.
Zurück zum Zitat Tushingham, AM, Peltier, W.R.: Validation of the ICE-3G model of Würm-Wisconsin deglaciation using a global data base of relative sea level histories. J. Geophys. Res. 97(B3), 3285–3304 (1992) CrossRef Tushingham, AM, Peltier, W.R.: Validation of the ICE-3G model of Würm-Wisconsin deglaciation using a global data base of relative sea level histories. J. Geophys. Res. 97(B3), 3285–3304 (1992) CrossRef
38.
Zurück zum Zitat Young, P.C.: Recursive Estimation and Time Series Analysis: An Introduction. Springer, New York (1984) MATH Young, P.C.: Recursive Estimation and Time Series Analysis: An Introduction. Springer, New York (1984) MATH
39.
Zurück zum Zitat Young, P.C.: Data-based mechanistic modelling of environmental, ecological, economic and engineering systems. Environ. Model. Softw. 12, 105–122 (1998) Young, P.C.: Data-based mechanistic modelling of environmental, ecological, economic and engineering systems. Environ. Model. Softw. 12, 105–122 (1998)
40.
Zurück zum Zitat Young, P.C.: Nonstationary time series analysis and forecasting. Prog. Environ. Sci. 1, 3–48 (1999) Young, P.C.: Nonstationary time series analysis and forecasting. Prog. Environ. Sci. 1, 3–48 (1999)
41.
Zurück zum Zitat Young, P.C.: The identification and estimation of nonlinear stochastic systems. In: Mees, A.I. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, pp. 127–166. Birkhäuser, Boston (2001) Young, P.C.: The identification and estimation of nonlinear stochastic systems. In: Mees, A.I. (ed.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, pp. 127–166. Birkhäuser, Boston (2001)
42.
Zurück zum Zitat Young, P.C., Parkinson, S.: Simplicity out of complexity. In: Beck, M.B. (ed.) Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto, pp. 251–301. Elsevier, Oxford (2002) CrossRef Young, P.C., Parkinson, S.: Simplicity out of complexity. In: Beck, M.B. (ed.) Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto, pp. 251–301. Elsevier, Oxford (2002) CrossRef
43.
Zurück zum Zitat Young, P.C., Ratto, M.: A unified approach to environmental systems modeling. J. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 23, 1037–1057 (2009) CrossRef Young, P.C., Ratto, M.: A unified approach to environmental systems modeling. J. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 23, 1037–1057 (2009) CrossRef
Metadaten
Titel
Model Structure Identification and the Growth of Knowledge
verfasst von
M. B. Beck
Z. Lin
J. D. Stigter
Copyright-Jahr
2012
Verlag
Springer London
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-974-1_4

Neuer Inhalt