Modeling the groundwater response to megacity expansion demand and climate change. Case study: the Cuautitlán–Pachuca aquifer, in the Northeast of Mexico City

Aquifers are being threatened by overuse, and scenario predictions are convenient to design appropriate planning programs to water management. Numerical modeling is a helpful tool in these analyses, but it is hard to manage with limited data available, which is frequent in developing countries. The aim of the paper is to show that there are other simple and reliable options. The primary objective of this research is to propose and validate a simplified-to-available-data approach, useful for aquifer modeling, followed by scenarios’ simulation, based on realistic future events. The Mexican overexploited aquifer Cuautitlán–Pachuca case study assess the responses of the water level under different outflows and infiltration scenarios from 2007 (base year) to 2031. Modflow software allowed the model calibration with 2007 data, and further spatial and temporal evolution of the piezometric level. The aquifer is the main water supplier for economic activities, and population in the northern region of Mexico City and outflows are continuously increasing, despite its severe overexploitation and even stronger negative impacts in the decline water levels are predicted in this study. A previous study reported −194.97 hm³/year deficit in 2010, and this paper predicts the strongest effect due to overpumping caused by the population growth that would intensify the deficiency up to −236.29 hm³/year. The results have revealed to decision makers the urgency to prevent the aquifer’s irreversible impairment, with a proper operation and management planning. This paper provides a contribution for simplifying conceptual models allowing to predict aquifers’ outcome scenarios with limited data.