Skip to main content

2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

16. Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 Under the Influence of Environmental Pollution

verfasst von : Nitin K Kamboj, Sangeeta Sharma, Sandeep Sharma

Erschienen in: Mathematical Analysis for Transmission of COVID-19

Verlag: Springer Singapore

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic emerged as one of the biggest challenges of recent times. Efforts have been made from different corners of the research community to understand different dimensions of the disease. Some theoretical works have reported that disease becomes severe in the presence of environmental pollution. In this work, we propose a nonlinear mathematical model to study the influence of air pollution on the dynamics of the disease. The basic reproduction number plays a vital role in predicting the future of an epidemic. Therefore, we obtain the expression of the basic reproduction number and performed a detailed sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The values of partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) have been calculated corresponding to six critical parameters. The positive values of PRCC for pollution-related parameters depicts that pollution enhances the chances of a rapid spread of COVID-19.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literatur
2.
Zurück zum Zitat Shereen, M. A., Khan, S., Kazmi, A., Bashir, N., & Siddique, R. (2020). Covid-19 infection: Origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses. Journal of Advanced Research. Shereen, M. A., Khan, S., Kazmi, A., Bashir, N., & Siddique, R. (2020). Covid-19 infection: Origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses. Journal of Advanced Research.
3.
Zurück zum Zitat Zhao, Z., Zhang, F., Xu, M., Huang, K., Zhong, W., Cai, W., et al. (2003). Description and clinical treatment of an early outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) in Guangzhou, PR china. Journal of Medical Microbiology, 52(8), 715–720.CrossRef Zhao, Z., Zhang, F., Xu, M., Huang, K., Zhong, W., Cai, W., et al. (2003). Description and clinical treatment of an early outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) in Guangzhou, PR china. Journal of Medical Microbiology, 52(8), 715–720.CrossRef
4.
Zurück zum Zitat Wang, N., Shi, X., Jiang, L., Zhang, S., Wang, D., Tong, P., et al. (2013). Structure of mers-cov spike receptor-binding domain complexed with human receptor dpp4. Cell research, 23(8), 986–993.CrossRef Wang, N., Shi, X., Jiang, L., Zhang, S., Wang, D., Tong, P., et al. (2013). Structure of mers-cov spike receptor-binding domain complexed with human receptor dpp4. Cell research, 23(8), 986–993.CrossRef
5.
Zurück zum Zitat Chan, J. F. W., Yuan, S., Kok, K. H., To, K. K. W., Chu, H., Yang, J., et al. (2020). A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: A study of a family cluster. The Lancet, 395(10223), 514–523.CrossRef Chan, J. F. W., Yuan, S., Kok, K. H., To, K. K. W., Chu, H., Yang, J., et al. (2020). A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: A study of a family cluster. The Lancet, 395(10223), 514–523.CrossRef
6.
Zurück zum Zitat Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., et al. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The lancet, 395(10223), 497–506.CrossRef Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., et al. (2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The lancet, 395(10223), 497–506.CrossRef
8.
Zurück zum Zitat Gralinski, L. E., & Menachery, V. D. (2020). Return of the coronavirus: 2019-ncov. Viruses, 12(2), 135.CrossRef Gralinski, L. E., & Menachery, V. D. (2020). Return of the coronavirus: 2019-ncov. Viruses, 12(2), 135.CrossRef
9.
Zurück zum Zitat Kumari, N., & Sharma, S. (2016). Does water disinfectant play a supportive role in the spread of infectious disease? A mathematical study. Natural Resource Modeling, 29(2), 259–288.MathSciNetCrossRef Kumari, N., & Sharma, S. (2016). Does water disinfectant play a supportive role in the spread of infectious disease? A mathematical study. Natural Resource Modeling, 29(2), 259–288.MathSciNetCrossRef
10.
Zurück zum Zitat Sharma, S., & Kumari, N. (2017). Why to consider environmental pollution in cholera modeling? Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 40(18), 6348–6370.MathSciNetCrossRef Sharma, S., & Kumari, N. (2017). Why to consider environmental pollution in cholera modeling? Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 40(18), 6348–6370.MathSciNetCrossRef
11.
Zurück zum Zitat Sharma, S., & Kumari, N. (2019). Dynamics of a waterborne pathogen model under the influence of environmental pollution. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 346, 219–243.MathSciNetCrossRef Sharma, S., & Kumari, N. (2019). Dynamics of a waterborne pathogen model under the influence of environmental pollution. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 346, 219–243.MathSciNetCrossRef
12.
Zurück zum Zitat Conticini, E., Frediani, B., & Caro, D. (2020). Can atmospheric pollution be considered a co-factor in extremely high level of sars-cov-2 lethality in northern italy? Environmental pollution 114465. Conticini, E., Frediani, B., & Caro, D. (2020). Can atmospheric pollution be considered a co-factor in extremely high level of sars-cov-2 lethality in northern italy? Environmental pollution 114465.
13.
Zurück zum Zitat Zoran, M. A., Savastru, R. S., Savastru, D. M., & Tautan, M. N. (2020). Assessing the relationship between surface levels of pm 2. 5 and pm10 particulate matter impact on covid-19 in Milan, Italy. Science of The Total Environment, 139825. Zoran, M. A., Savastru, R. S., Savastru, D. M., & Tautan, M. N. (2020). Assessing the relationship between surface levels of pm 2. 5 and pm10 particulate matter impact on covid-19 in Milan, Italy. Science of The Total Environment, 139825.
15.
Zurück zum Zitat Arino, J., & Portet, S. (2020). A simple model for covid-19. Infectious Disease Modelling. Arino, J., & Portet, S. (2020). A simple model for covid-19. Infectious Disease Modelling.
16.
Zurück zum Zitat Chatterjee, K., Chatterjee, K., Kumar, A., & Shankar, S. (2020). Healthcare impact of covid-19 epidemic in India: A stochastic mathematical model. Medical Journal Armed Forces India. Chatterjee, K., Chatterjee, K., Kumar, A., & Shankar, S. (2020). Healthcare impact of covid-19 epidemic in India: A stochastic mathematical model. Medical Journal Armed Forces India.
17.
Zurück zum Zitat Fanelli, D., & Piazza, F. (2020). Analysis and forecast of covid-19 spreading in china, Italy and France. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 134, 109761.MathSciNetCrossRef Fanelli, D., & Piazza, F. (2020). Analysis and forecast of covid-19 spreading in china, Italy and France. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 134, 109761.MathSciNetCrossRef
18.
Zurück zum Zitat Giordano, G., Blanchini, F., Bruno, R., Colaneri, P., Di Filippo, A., Di Matteo, A., & Colaneri, M. (2020). Modelling the covid-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy. Nature Medicine, 1–6. Giordano, G., Blanchini, F., Bruno, R., Colaneri, P., Di Filippo, A., Di Matteo, A., & Colaneri, M. (2020). Modelling the covid-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy. Nature Medicine, 1–6.
19.
Zurück zum Zitat He, S., Tang, S., & Rong, L. (2020). A discrete stochastic model of the covid-19 outbreak: Forecast and control. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 17, 2792–2804.MathSciNetCrossRef He, S., Tang, S., & Rong, L. (2020). A discrete stochastic model of the covid-19 outbreak: Forecast and control. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 17, 2792–2804.MathSciNetCrossRef
20.
Zurück zum Zitat Khan, M. A., & Atangana, A. (2020). Modeling the dynamics of novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) with fractional derivative. Alexandria Engineering Journal. Khan, M. A., & Atangana, A. (2020). Modeling the dynamics of novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) with fractional derivative. Alexandria Engineering Journal.
21.
Zurück zum Zitat Nadim, S. S., & Chattopadhyay, J. (2020). Occurrence of backward bifurcation and prediction of disease transmission with imperfect lockdown: A case study on covid-19 (p. 110163). Solitons & Fractals: Chaos. Nadim, S. S., & Chattopadhyay, J. (2020). Occurrence of backward bifurcation and prediction of disease transmission with imperfect lockdown: A case study on covid-19 (p. 110163). Solitons & Fractals: Chaos.
22.
Zurück zum Zitat Ndairou, F., Area, I., Nieto, J. J., & Torres, D. F. (2020). Mathematical modeling of covid-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of wuhan (p. 109846). Solitons & Fractals: Chaos. Ndairou, F., Area, I., Nieto, J. J., & Torres, D. F. (2020). Mathematical modeling of covid-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of wuhan (p. 109846). Solitons & Fractals: Chaos.
23.
Zurück zum Zitat Ngonghala, C. N., Iboi, E., Eikenberry, S., Scotch, M., MacIntyre, C. R., Bonds, M. H., & Gumel, A. B. (2020) Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel coronavirus. Mathematical Biosciences, 108364 Ngonghala, C. N., Iboi, E., Eikenberry, S., Scotch, M., MacIntyre, C. R., Bonds, M. H., & Gumel, A. B. (2020) Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel coronavirus. Mathematical Biosciences, 108364
24.
Zurück zum Zitat Ngonghala, C. N., Iboi, E., & Gumel, A. B. (2020) Could masks curtail the post-lockdown resurgence of covid-19 in the us? Mathematical Biosciences, 108452 Ngonghala, C. N., Iboi, E., & Gumel, A. B. (2020) Could masks curtail the post-lockdown resurgence of covid-19 in the us? Mathematical Biosciences, 108452
25.
Zurück zum Zitat Roda, W. C., Varughese, M. B., Han, D., & Li, M. Y. (2020). Why is it difficult to accurately predict the covid-19 epidemic? Infectious Disease Modelling. Roda, W. C., Varughese, M. B., Han, D., & Li, M. Y. (2020). Why is it difficult to accurately predict the covid-19 epidemic? Infectious Disease Modelling.
26.
Zurück zum Zitat Wang, L., Wang, J., Zhao, H., Shi, Y., Wang, K., Wu, P., & Shi, L. (2020) Modelling and assessing the effects of medical resources on transmission of novel coronavirus (covid-19) in Wuhan, China. Wang, L., Wang, J., Zhao, H., Shi, Y., Wang, K., Wu, P., & Shi, L. (2020) Modelling and assessing the effects of medical resources on transmission of novel coronavirus (covid-19) in Wuhan, China.
27.
Zurück zum Zitat Arino, J., Brauer, F., Van Den Driessche, P., Watmough, J., & Wu, J. (2008). A model for influenza with vaccination and antiviral treatment. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 253(1), 118–130.MathSciNetCrossRef Arino, J., Brauer, F., Van Den Driessche, P., Watmough, J., & Wu, J. (2008). A model for influenza with vaccination and antiviral treatment. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 253(1), 118–130.MathSciNetCrossRef
28.
Zurück zum Zitat Matsuyama, R., Akhmetzhanov, A. R., Endo, A., Lee, H., Yamaguchi, T., Tsuzuki, S., et al. (2018). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: A case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017. PeerJ, 6, e4583.CrossRef Matsuyama, R., Akhmetzhanov, A. R., Endo, A., Lee, H., Yamaguchi, T., Tsuzuki, S., et al. (2018). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: A case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017. PeerJ, 6, e4583.CrossRef
29.
Zurück zum Zitat Samsuzzoha, M., Singh, M., & Lucy, D. (2013). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of a vaccinated epidemic model of influenza. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 37(3), 903–915.MathSciNetCrossRef Samsuzzoha, M., Singh, M., & Lucy, D. (2013). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of a vaccinated epidemic model of influenza. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 37(3), 903–915.MathSciNetCrossRef
30.
Zurück zum Zitat Marino, S., Hogue, I. B., Ray, C. J., & Kirschner, D. E. (2008). A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 254(1), 178–196.MathSciNetCrossRef Marino, S., Hogue, I. B., Ray, C. J., & Kirschner, D. E. (2008). A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 254(1), 178–196.MathSciNetCrossRef
31.
Zurück zum Zitat Dobson, A. (2009). Climate variability, global change, immunity, and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecology, 90(4), 920–927.MathSciNetCrossRef Dobson, A. (2009). Climate variability, global change, immunity, and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecology, 90(4), 920–927.MathSciNetCrossRef
32.
Zurück zum Zitat Lafferty, K. D., & Holt, R. D. (2003). How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease? Ecology Letters, 6(7), 654–664.CrossRef Lafferty, K. D., & Holt, R. D. (2003). How should environmental stress affect the population dynamics of disease? Ecology Letters, 6(7), 654–664.CrossRef
33.
Zurück zum Zitat Lipp, E. K., Huq, A., & Colwell, R. R. (2002). Effects of global climate on infectious disease: The cholera model. Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 15(4), 757–770.CrossRef Lipp, E. K., Huq, A., & Colwell, R. R. (2002). Effects of global climate on infectious disease: The cholera model. Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 15(4), 757–770.CrossRef
34.
Zurück zum Zitat McMichael, A. J., & Woodruff, R. E. (2005). Detecting the health effects of environmental change: Scientific and political challenge. McMichael, A. J., & Woodruff, R. E. (2005). Detecting the health effects of environmental change: Scientific and political challenge.
35.
Zurück zum Zitat Schwarzenbach, R. P., Egli, T., Hofstetter, T. B., Von Gunten, U., & Wehrli, B. (2010). Global water pollution and human health. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 35, 109–136.CrossRef Schwarzenbach, R. P., Egli, T., Hofstetter, T. B., Von Gunten, U., & Wehrli, B. (2010). Global water pollution and human health. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 35, 109–136.CrossRef
36.
Zurück zum Zitat Gavrilescu, M., Demnerová, K., Aamand, J., Agathos, S., & Fava, F. (2015). Emerging pollutants in the environment: Present and future challenges in biomonitoring, ecological risks and bioremediation. New biotechnology, 32(1), 147–156.CrossRef Gavrilescu, M., Demnerová, K., Aamand, J., Agathos, S., & Fava, F. (2015). Emerging pollutants in the environment: Present and future challenges in biomonitoring, ecological risks and bioremediation. New biotechnology, 32(1), 147–156.CrossRef
37.
Zurück zum Zitat Huntingford, C., Hemming, D., Gash, J., Gedney, N., & Nuttall, P. (2007). Impact of climate change on health: What is required of climate modellers? Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 101(2), 97–103.CrossRef Huntingford, C., Hemming, D., Gash, J., Gedney, N., & Nuttall, P. (2007). Impact of climate change on health: What is required of climate modellers? Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 101(2), 97–103.CrossRef
38.
Zurück zum Zitat Kumari, N., & Sharma, S. (2018). Modeling the dynamics of infectious disease under the influence of environmental pollution. International Journal of Applied and Computational Mathematics, 4(3), 84.MathSciNetCrossRef Kumari, N., & Sharma, S. (2018). Modeling the dynamics of infectious disease under the influence of environmental pollution. International Journal of Applied and Computational Mathematics, 4(3), 84.MathSciNetCrossRef
39.
Zurück zum Zitat Van den Driessche, P., & Watmough, J. (2002). Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Mathematical biosciences, 180(1–2), 29–48.MathSciNetCrossRef Van den Driessche, P., & Watmough, J. (2002). Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Mathematical biosciences, 180(1–2), 29–48.MathSciNetCrossRef
40.
Zurück zum Zitat Senapati, A., Rana, S., Das, T., & Chattopadhyay, J. (2020). Impact of intervention on the spread of covid-19 in India: A model based study. arXiv preprint arXiv: 2004.04950. Senapati, A., Rana, S., Das, T., & Chattopadhyay, J. (2020). Impact of intervention on the spread of covid-19 in India: A model based study. arXiv preprint arXiv:​ 2004.​04950.
42.
Zurück zum Zitat Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., et al. (2020). Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine. Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., et al. (2020). Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine.
43.
Zurück zum Zitat Oguntunde, P., Odetunmibi, O., & Adejumo, A. (2014). A study of probability models in monitoring environmental pollution in Nigeria. Journal of Probability and Statistics. Oguntunde, P., Odetunmibi, O., & Adejumo, A. (2014). A study of probability models in monitoring environmental pollution in Nigeria. Journal of Probability and Statistics.
Metadaten
Titel
Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 Under the Influence of Environmental Pollution
verfasst von
Nitin K Kamboj
Sangeeta Sharma
Sandeep Sharma
Copyright-Jahr
2021
Verlag
Springer Singapore
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6264-2_16

    Marktübersichten

    Die im Laufe eines Jahres in der „adhäsion“ veröffentlichten Marktübersichten helfen Anwendern verschiedenster Branchen, sich einen gezielten Überblick über Lieferantenangebote zu verschaffen.