nach oben

Hydrogeology Journal

Erschienen in:

01.11.2010 | Report

Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

verfasst von: Russell S. Crosbie, James L. McCallum, Glen R. Walker, Francis H. S. Chiew

Erschienen in: Hydrogeology Journal | Ausgabe 7/2010

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km² Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.

Vorheriger Artikel Impacts of climate change on groundwater in Australia: a sensitivity analysis of recharge

Nächster Artikel Effects of climate change on groundwater resources at Shelter Island, New York State, USA

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Abbs K, Littleboy M (1998) Recharge estimation for the Liverpool plains. Aust J Soil Res 36(2):335–357CrossRef

ABS (2003) Year Book Australia 2003. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, Australia

Beverly C, Bari M, Christy B, Hocking M, Smettem K (2005) Predicted salinity impacts from land use change: comparison between rapid assessment approaches and a detailed modelling framework. Aust J Exp Agric 45(11):1453–1469CrossRef

Broadbridge P, White I (1998) Constant rate rainfall infiltration: a versatile non-linear model: I. analytical solution. Water Resour Res 24:145–154CrossRef

Brouyère S, Carabin G, Dassargues A (2004) Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium. Hydrogeol J 12(2):123–134CrossRef

BRS (2008) Integrated Vegetation Cover 2008. Bureau of Rural Sciences, Canberra, Australia

Brunner P, Bauer P, Eugster M, Kinzelbach W (2004) Using remote sensing to regionalize local precipitation recharge rates obtained from the chloride method. J Hydrol 294(4):241–250CrossRef

Charles SP, Bates BC, Smith IN, Hughes JP (2004) Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation from observed and modelled atmospheric fields. Hydrol Process 18(8):1373–1394CrossRef

Chiew FHS, Teng J, Kirono D, Frost AJ, Bathols JM, Vaze J, Viney NR, Young WJ, Hennessy KJ, Cai WJ (2008a) Climate data for hydrologic scenario modelling across the Murray-Darling Basin. A report to the Australian government from the CSIRO Murray-Darling Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO, Canberra, Australia

Chiew FHS, Vaze J, Viney NR, Jordan PW, Perraud J-M, Zhang L, Young WJ, Penaarancibia J, Morden RA, Freebairn A, Austin J, Hill PI, Weisenfeld CR, Murphy R (2008b) Rainfall-runoff modelling across the Murray-darling basin. A report to the Australian government from the CSIRO Murray-Darling Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO, Canberra, Australia

Chiew FHS, Teng J, Vaze J, Post DA, Perraud JM, Kirono DGC Viney NR (2009) Estimating climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia: method, results, and implications of the modeling method. Water Resour Res 45, W10414, 17 pp

Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuloc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magana Rueda V, Mearns L, Menendez CG, Ralsanen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

Cook PG, Walker GR, Jolly ID (1989) Spatial variability of groundwater recharge in a semiarid region. J Hydrol 111:195–212CrossRef

Crosbie RS, Wilson B, Hughes JD, McCulloch C, King WM (2008) A comparison of the water use of tree belts and pasture in recharge and discharge zones in a saline catchment in the Central West of NSW, Australia. Agric Water Manage 95(3):211–223CrossRef

CSIRO and BOM (2007) Climate change in Australia, CSIRO and BOM, Canberra, Australia

D’Agnese FA, Faunt CC, Hill MC, Turner AK (1999) Death Valley regional ground-water flow model calibration using optimal parameter estimation methods and geoscientific information systems. Adv Water Resour 22(8):777–790CrossRef

Dawes WR, Gilfedder M, Stauffacher M, Coram J, Hajkowicz S, Walker GR, Young M (2002) Assessing the viability of recharge reduction for dryland salinity control: WANILLA, Eyre Peninsula. Aust J Soil Res 40(8):1407–1424CrossRef

Dawes W, Zhang L, Dyce P (2004) WAVES v3.5 User Manual, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia

Delin GN, Healy RW, Lorenza DL, Nimmoc JR (2007) Comparison of local- to regional-scale estimates of ground-water recharge in Minnesota, USA. J Hydrol 334(1–2):231–249CrossRef

DFA (1974) Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of Japan for the protection of migratory birds in danger of extinction and their environment. Australian Treaty Series 1981 No. 6, Department of Foreign Affairs, Canberra, Australia

DFAT (1986) Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of the People’s Republic of China for the protection of migratory birds and their environment. Australian Treaty Series 1988 No. 22, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, Australia

IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 pp

Isbell RF (2002) Australian soils classification. CSIRO, Collingwood, Victoria, Australia, 144 pp

Jeffrey SJ, Carter JO, Moodie KB, Beswick AR (2001) Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data. Environ Model Softw 16(4):309–330CrossRef

Johnston RM, Barry SJ, Bleys E, Bui EN, Moran CJ, Simon DAP, Carlile P, McKenzie NJ, Henderson BL, Chapman G, Imhoff M, Maschmedt D, Howe D, Grose C, Schoknecht N, Powell B, Grundy M (2003) ASRIS: the database. Aust J Soil Res 41(6):1021–1036CrossRef

Jyrkama MI, Sykes JF (2007) The impact of climate change on spatially varying groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed (Ontario). J Hydrol 338(3–4):237–250CrossRef

Lim WH, Roderick ML (2008) Global water cycle atlas based on the IPCC AR4 Climate Models. The Australian National University, Canberra

Littleboy M, Herron N, Barnett P (2003) Applying unsaturated zone modelling to develop recharge maps for the Murray-Darling Basin in New South Wales, Australia. In: Post DA (ed) Proceedings of International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, MODSIM 2003, Modelling & Simulation Society of Australia & New Zealand Inc., Perth, Australia

Loáiciga HA, Maidment DR, Valdes JB (2000) Climate-change impacts in a regional karst aquifer, Texas, USA. J Hydrol 227(1–4):173–194CrossRef

McCallum JL, Crosbie RS, Walker GR, Dawes WR (2010) Impacts of climate change on groundwater in Australia: a sensitivity analysis of recharge. Hydrogeol J. doi:10.1007/s10040-010-0624-y

Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88(9):1383–1394CrossRef

Nunez M, McGregor JL (2007) Modelling future water environments of Tasmania, Australia. Clim Res 34(1):25–37CrossRef

Petheram C, Walker G, Grayson R, Thierfelder T, Zhang L (2002) Towards a framework for predicting impacts of land-use on recharge: 1. a review of recharge studies in Australia. Aust J Soil Res 40(3):397–417CrossRef

Pilgrim DH (1987) Australian rainfall and runoff: a guide to flood estimation, 1. The Institution of Engineers, Barton, ACT, Australia

Post DA, Chiew FHS, Teng J, Vaze J, Yang A, Mpelasoka F, Smith IN, Katzfey J, Marston F, Marvanek SP, Kirono D, Nguyen K, Kent D, Donohue RJ, McVicar TR (2009) Climate scenarios for Tasmania. Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO, Canberra, Australia

Ramsar Convention Bureau (1971) Convention on wetlands of international importance especially as waterfowl habitat. Ramsar, Iran, 2 February 1971. UN Treaty Series No. 14583. As amended by the Paris Protocol, 3 December 1982, and Regina Amendments, 28 May 1987

Rosenberg NJ, Epstein DJ, Wang D, Vail L, Srinivasan R, Arnold JG (1999) Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala Aquifer region. Clim Change 42(4):677–692CrossRef

Salama R, Hatton T, Dawes W (1999) Predicting land use impacts on regional scale groundwater recharge and discharge. J Environ Qual 28(2):446–460CrossRef

Scanlon BR, Healy RW, Cook PG (2002) Choosing appropriate techniques for quantifying groundwater recharge. Hydrogeol J 10:18–39CrossRef

Serrat-Capdevila A, Valdés JB, Pérez JG, Baird K, Mata LJ, Maddock T (2007) Modeling climate change impacts - and uncertainty - on the hydrology of a riparian system: the San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora). J Hydrol 347(1–2):48–66CrossRef

Slavich PG, Walker GR, Jolly ID, Hatton TJ, Dawes WR (1999) Dynamics of Eucalyptus largiflorens growth and water use in response to modified watertable and flooding regimes on a saline floodplain. Agric Water Manage 39(2–3):245–264CrossRef

Sophocleous M (1992) Groundwater recharge estimation and regionalization: the Great Bend Prairie of central Kansas and its recharge statistics. J Hydrol 137:113–140CrossRef

Szilagyi J, Harvey FE, Ayers JF (2005) Regional estimation of total recharge to ground water in Nebraska. Ground Water 43(1):63–69CrossRef

Tuteja NK, Vaze J, Teng J (2005) The CLASS modelling framework: a platform for distributed eco-hydrological modelling, MODSIM, 2005, Melbourne, Australia, December 2005

UNFCCC (1992) United Nations framework convention on climate change. UN, New York

USGS (1982) Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency. Bulletin #17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA

Wang HX, Zhang L, Dawes WR, Liu CM (2001) Improving water use efficiency of irrigated crops in the North China Plain: measurements and modelling. Agric Water Manage 48(2):151–167CrossRef

Wu H, Rykiel EJ, Hatton T, Walker J (1994) An integrated rate methodology (IRM) for multi-factor growth rate modelling. Ecol Model 73(1–2):97–116CrossRef

Xu C, Martin M, Silberstein R, Smetten K (2008) Identifying sources of uncertainty in groundwater recharge estimates using the biophysical model WAVES. Water Down Under, Adelaide, Australia

Yang YH, Watanabe M, Wang ZP, Sakura Y, Tang CY (2003) Prediction of changes in soil moisture associated with climatic changes and their implications for vegetation changes: WAVES model simulation on Taihang Mountain, China. Clim Change 57(1–2):163–183CrossRef

Zhang L, Dawes W (1998) WAVES: an integrated energy and water balance model. Technical Report No. 31/98, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia

Zhang L, Dawes WR, Hatton TJ (1996) Modelling hydrologic processes using a biophysically based model–application of WAVES to FIFE and HAPEX-MOBILHY. J Hydrol 185(1–4):147–169CrossRef

Zhang L, Dawes WR, Hatton TJ, Hume IH, O’Connell MG, Mitchell DC, Milthorp PL, Yee M (1999) Estimating episodic recharge under different crop/pasture rotations in the Mallee region. Part 2. Recharge control by agronomic practices. Agric Water Manage 42(2):237–249CrossRef

Titel: Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia
verfasst von: Russell S. Crosbie
James L. McCallum
Glen R. Walker
Francis H. S. Chiew
Publikationsdatum: 01.11.2010
Verlag: Springer-Verlag
Erschienen in: Hydrogeology Journal / Ausgabe 7/2010
Print ISSN: 1431-2174
Elektronische ISSN: 1435-0157
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-010-0625-x

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 7/2010

Multi-tracer tests to evaluate the hydraulic setting of a complex aquifer system (Brévilles spring catchment, France)

Simulation of fluid percolation in a rough-walled rock fracture

Impacts of climate change on groundwater in Australia: a sensitivity analysis of recharge

Fracture flow modelling based on satellite images of the Wajid Sandstone, Saudi Arabia

Groundwater-level response to land-use change and the implications for salinity management in the West Moorabool River catchment, Victoria, Australia