Modelling groundwater over-extraction in the southern Jordan Valley with scarce data

To deal with the challenge of groundwater over-extraction in arid and semi-arid environments, it is necessary to establish management strategies based on the knowledge of hydrogeological conditions, which can be difficult in places where hydrogeological data are dispersed, scarce or present potential misinformation. Groundwater levels in the southern Jordan Valley (Jordan) have decreased drastically in the last three decades, caused by over-extraction of groundwater for irrigation purposes. This study presents a local, two-dimensional and transient numerical groundwater model, using MODFLOW, to characterise the groundwater system and the water balance in the southern Jordan Valley. Furthermore, scenarios are simulated regarding hydrological conditions and management options, like extension of arable land and closure of illegal wells, influencing the projection of groundwater extraction. A limited dataset, literature values, field surveys, and the ‘crop water-requirement method’ are combined to determine boundary conditions, aquifer parameters, and sources and sinks. The model results show good agreement between predicted and observed values; groundwater-level contours agree with the conceptual model and expected flow direction, and, in terms of water balance, flow volumes are in accordance with literature values. Average annual water consumption for irrigation is estimated to be 29 million m³ and simulation results show that a reduction of groundwater pumping by 40% could recover groundwater heads, reducing the water taken from storage. This study presents an example of how to develop a local numerical groundwater model to support management strategies under the condition of data scarcity.