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2001 | Buch

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Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

verfasst von: Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Verlag: Springer US

Buchreihe : International Series in Operations Research & Management Science

Enthalten in: Professional Book Archive

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Models, Methods, Concepts and Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process is a volume dedicated to selected applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) focused on three themes: economics, the social sciences, and the linking of measurement with human values. (1) The AHP offers economists a substantially different approach to dealing with economic problems through ratio scales. The main mathematical models on which economics has based its quantitative thinking up to now are utility theory, which uses interval scales, and linear programming. We hope that the variety of examples included here can perhaps stimulate researchers in economics to try applying this new approach. (2) The second theme is concerned with the social sciences. The AHP offers psychologists and political scientists the methodology to quantify and derive measurements for intangibles. We hope that the examples included in this book will encourage them to examine the methods of AHP in terms of the problems they seek to solve. (3) The third theme is concerned with providing people in the physical and engineering sciences with a quantitative method to link hard measurement to human values. In such a process one needs to interpret what the measurements mean. A number is useless until someone understands what it means. It can have different meanings in different problems. Ten dollars are plenty to satisfy one's hunger but are useless by themselves in buying a new car. Such measurements are only indicators of the state of a system, but do not relate to the values of the human observers of that system. AHP methods can help resolve the conflicts between hard measurement data and human values.

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Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. How to Make A Decision

Abstract

íερá áρχή is the Greek word for hierarchy meaning holy origin or holy rule¹. It is the ordering of parts or elements of a whole from the highest to the lowest. A hierarchy is the principle of control that secures the effective functioning of the organization².

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 2. The Seven Pillars of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) provides the objective mathematics to process the inescapably subjective and personal preferences of an individual or a group in making a decision. With the AHP and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), one constructs hierarchies or feedback networks, then makes judgments or performs measurements on pairs of elements with respect to a controlling element to derive ratio scales that are then synthesized throughout the structure to select the best alternative.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 3. Architectural Design

Abstract

This chapter illustrates the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in determining the amount and location of space assigned to each room, according to its function, in the design of a house [1].

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 4. Designing a Mousetrap

Abstract

This chapter illustrates the sequential use of hierarchies in the selection, design and marketing of a mouse trap. The project described in this chapter is not so much about building a better mousetrap as it is about a person’s hope to reach a higher state by engulfing oneself in the project. Not a higher state in the classical sense that is indicative of a great mind expanding, but a state that helps a person to grow through doing, always reminding one that there are numerous ways to see a problem. By reminding the student to be open and sensitive to new ideas and new creative processes, the professor can foster positive growth. Emphasizing that you never reach a state where you are all that there is, and your ways are the best, can lead to a healthy respect for continued growth buttressed by a positive attitude, and a striving for a more fulfilling life.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 5. Designing the Best Catamaran

Abstract

This chapter illustrates use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in the selection and design of a sailboat. How does one bring together one’s ideas when designing a versatile sailing machine? Imagination plays an important role but is full of disconnected thoughts. The AHP was used to first choose the overall sailboat design, and then to select some fundamental hydrodynamic features of the newly designed boat.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 6. The Selection of a Bridge

Abstract

This chapter illustrates the use of the AHP for selecting the most appropriate bridge design in two different applications. The one recommended in the second application coincides with the decision that was actually made, demonstrating that the exclusion of an important, but hard to perceive actor, can alter the final decision. In this example we learn that decision making is not simply including multiple criteria in the decision, but more importantly the diverse people or groups who influence the outcome because of their own purposes.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 7. Measuring Dependence Between Activities: Input-Output Application to the Sudan

Abstract

In this chapter we illustrate how to deal with dependence among the elements of the same level of a hierarchy (inner dependence) with an application we made in the design of the Transportation System for the Sudan (see [2]). The outcome of this analysis was an input-output table which parallels the work of econometricians. This application was done a few years after the Sudan Transport Study was finished.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 8. Technological Choice in Less Developed Countries

Abstract

It is widely believed that the economic situation of less developed countries (LDCs) can be greatly improved by conscious and judicious application of science and technology to the solution of their many problems. This belief is well supported by evidence attributing the rapid economic growth achieved by industrially advanced countries to the technology factor ([1], [13]). Early economic theorists noted that the level of savings and investment in the LDCs was low. They recommended transfusion of capital to spur investment and capital formation; but beginning with the late fifties the emphasis shifted to transfusion of technology rather than capital. However, the collective experience of the LDCs with imported technology over the past three decades has been far from encouraging, as is apparent from the growing discontent voiced by the “Group of 77.”

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 9. Market Attractiveness of Developing Countries

Abstract

Companies operating in international markets need to evaluate the potential market attractiveness of developing countries with which they may want to do business. These companies have access to substantial amounts of information from specialized sources and from statistical data supplied by international institutions. Such vast and diverse information is rarely used in a systematic way in the management decision process. When it is used, the entire process is most often inadequately formalized. The available information generally deals with economic factors, while in the present international arena, judgment about politics must also be taken into account. This chapter illustrates the applicability and advantages of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to this decision problem, and uses it to create maps of joint economic progress and political stability in a number of countries for two time periods 1990–1991 and 1995–1997.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 10. An Analytic Hierarchy Process Based Approach to the Design and Evaluation of a Marketing Driven Business and Corporate Strategy

Abstract

The dramatic changes in the business environment, as highlighted in Table 1, suggest that the old and proven ways of doing business may not suffice in assuring survival and growth in the 1990s and beyond. Heightened environmental uncertainty and complexity calls for increased attention to creativity in generating strategic directions for the firm, rigor in evaluating the strategic options on multiple and independent objectives, and vision and focus to assure effective utilization of resources. Most managers could greatly benefit from a framework and methodology which would allow them to accomplish these tasks while at the same time assuring that the strategy is driven by the critical marketing considerations. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) provides such a framework and methodology.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 11. New Product Pricing Strategy

Abstract

This chapter presents the development and application of a model for effective decision making in establishing strategies for the pricing of new products. The model developed evaluates all important criteria that need to be considered for the successful implementation of new products in the market. The formulation of the model was tailored for a specific new software product with unique marketing considerations in a well-defined, segmented market. The process used can easily be extended to include other products, provided that model changes and other appropriate parameters realistically describe the problem being analyzed. Such information needs to be established on a case by case basis by the user, for proper validation of the model.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 12. Incorporating Expert Judgment in Economic Forecasts: The Case of the U.S. Economy in 1992

Abstract

Professional and academic economists employ a variety of techniques and commit significant amounts of time and financial resources for the purpose of producing macroeconomic forecasts. This chapter illustrates the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in forecasting. It integrates macroeconomic theory, historical evidence (as reflected, for example, in formal forecasting models) and expert judgment. Importantly, in the context of current efforts to forecast the future course of the U.S. economy, expert judgment facilitates the incorporation of structural changes into such forecasts.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 13. A New Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Evaluation Method

Abstract

The economy is often faced with a turn that is not to our liking, and we sometimes think it ought to be controllable by macroeconomic policy. While the spectrum of policies ranges from Keynesian “fine tuning” to using monetarist “rules,” every action (or inaction) of the government is a policy. Because of this it is important that government policy makers be guided by appropriate empirical models. Unfortunately, there is considerable variation in the large numbers of econometric models that have been developed thus far. Moreover, there are persistent problems, both technical and theoretical, with these models.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 14. Forecasting the Future of the Soviet Union

Abstract

In this chapter we report on a study carried out in May of 1990 which uses the AHP to determine the future of the Soviet Union. This question has been of utmost importance to every person alive because of the Soviet Union’s implicit and explicit influence on the future of the world. This work is an attempt to project the outcome of the various forces at work within and outside the Soviet Union that were thought to affect its destiny. Three different scenarios were formulated as possible outcomes. The purpose was not just to predict the future, but to develop a framework where variables involved in this complex problem could be identified, the effect of these variables on shaping the future could be evaluated, and the overall outcomes from these events could be derived. The hope is for identifying some actions to be taken to facilitate the way to peace, to avoid unnecessary violence, and to formulate intelligent and consistent policies.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 15. Abortion and the States: How Will the Supreme Court Rule on the Upcoming Pennsylvania Abortion Issue

Abstract

In the Summer of 1992 the Supreme Court of the United States was supposed to rule on a controversial Pennsylvania statute [13] restricting the rights of women in obtaining an abortion. Included in this statute are provisions requiring that doctors provide women with state-prescribed information about pregnancy and abortion, that the procedure be delayed 24 hours after the recitation and that husbands be notified prior to the procedure. The lower court upheld the first two provisions but declared unconstitutional the husband notification requirement.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 16. The Benefits and Costs of Authorizing Riverboat Gambling

Abstract

On November 26, 1990, six months after the study on which this chapter is based was undertaken, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives rejected a bill to legalize riverboat gambling by a vote of 118–81.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 7. The Case of the Spotted Owl vs. The Logging Industry

Abstract

In this chapter we analyze the controversy surrounding the Northern Spotted Owl. This debate has been raging in the United States for five years, particularly in the Pacific Northwest region of the country. On the surface it may appear that the problem is limited to deciding whether or not to fully protect a single species of bird, but in reality this issue has implications that extend much further.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 18. Selection of Recycling Goal Most Likely to Succeed

Abstract

Americans throw out about 160 million tons of garbage a year - 3.5 pounds apiece each day. And, the volume of garbage keeps growing — up by 80% since 1960, and expected to increase by an additional 20 percent by the year 2000. Where we are going to put it all is becoming an item on the nation’s agenda.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 19. To Drill Or Not To Drill: A Synthesis of Expert Judgments

Abstract

Petroleum exploration is a costly venture which always involves a great deal of uncertainties and unknown factors. A decision to drill could result in a giant discovery, a modest discovery, or a dry hole. The factors influencing drilling decisions could be of geologic, economic and personal nature. When making a decision based on geologic factors alone, geologists and geophysicists will try to find answers to the following questions [2].

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 20. Modeling the Graduate Business School Admissions Process

Abstract

Each year thousands of individuals seek admission to graduate schools of business in order to pursue courses leading to a master’s degree such as the MBA. From late autumn through early spring, graduate admissions committees within schools of business expend enormous amounts of effort and resources to select an appropriate mix of entering students [1]. The overall decision-making process is usually complex and time consuming. Quantitative and qualitative selection criteria must be agreed upon. Thousands of pieces of application materials must be collected and evaluated. Prospective candidates must be interviewed and their performance judged. Final selections must be made [7]. The entire process must be thorough, fair, and carefully executed.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 21. Infertility Decision Making

Abstract

Infertility is perceived as a major crisis in life. There are strong religious, cultural and societal pressures to have children. The most commonly accepted definition of infertility is the continued inability of a couple to conceive after a year. The high level of interest in the problems associated with infertility has led to the rapid development of medical technology in this area. It is one of the few specialty fields that have given rise to many emotional, ethical and legal considerations.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 22. The Decision by the US Congress on China’s Trade Status: A Multicriteria Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we used a decision making tool, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), to analyze a decision to select a trade status for China that is in the best interest of the United States before that decision came before Congress for a vote.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Chapter 23. Deciding between Angioplasty and Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery

Abstract

This chapter is an effort to create a decision process for patients and physicians to decide between open-heart bypass surgery or the less intrusive angioplasty procedure. The model was developed with “Expert Choice for Windows vs. 9.0,” including pairwise comparisons of benefits, of risks and of both procedures. The overall result slightly favors angioplasty because it indicates a lower risk potential and in addition seems to be more beneficial for the patient. The results that we determined with the AHP model, support some of the research in the medical community, but not all evidence favors angioplasty.

Thomas L. Saaty, Luis G. Vargas

Backmatter

Titel: Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process
verfasst von: Thomas L. Saaty
Luis G. Vargas
Copyright-Jahr: 2001
Verlag: Springer US
Electronic ISBN: 978-1-4615-1665-1
Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-5667-7
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-1665-1