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2014 | Buch

Dynamically Tracking the Real World in an Agent-Based Model Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Multi-Agent-Based Simulation XIV

International Workshop, MABS 2013, Saint Paul, MN, USA, May 6-7, 2013, Revised Selected Papers

herausgegeben von: Shah Jamal Alam, H. Van Dyke Parunak

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Buchreihe : Lecture Notes in Computer Science

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-conference proceedings of the 14th International Workshop on Multi-Agent-Based Simulation, MABS 2013, held in Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA, in May 2013. The workshop was help in conjunction with Twelfth International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, AAMAS 2013. The 11 revised full papers included in this volume were carefully selected from 29 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on MABS for real-time and online data, formal approaches in MABS: design and validation, MABS in environmental modeling, simulating social phenomena.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

MABS for Real-Time and Online Data

Frontmatter
Dynamically Tracking the Real World in an Agent-Based Model
Abstract
Computational Social Science (CSS) models are most commonly used to articulate theories and explore their implications. As they become more mature, they are also valuable in monitoring real-world situations. Such applications require models to be linked to dynamic real-world data in real time. This paper explores this distinction in a specific application that tracks crowd violence in an urban setting.
H. Van Dyke Parunak, S. Hugh Brooks, Sven Brueckner, Ravi Gupta
Large-Scale Multi-agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Microblogging-Based Online Social Network
Abstract
Online Social Networks (OSN) are self-organized systems with emergent behavior from the individual interactions. Microblogging services in OSN, like Twitter and Facebook, became extremely popular and are being used to target marketing campaigns. Key known issues on this targeting is to be able to predict human behavior like posting, forwarding or replying a message with regard to topics and sentiments, and to analyze the emergent behavior of such actions. To tackle this problem we present a method to model and simulate interactive behavior in microblogging OSN taking into account the users sentiment. We make use of a stochastic multi-agent based approach and we explore Barack Obama’s Twitter network as an egocentric network to present the experimental simulation results. We demonstrate that with this engineering method it is possible to develop social media simulators using a bottom-up approach (micro level) to evaluate the emergent behavior (macro level) and our preliminary results show how to better tune the modeler and the sampling and text classification impact on the simulation model.
Maíra Gatti, Paulo Cavalin, Samuel Barbosa Neto, Claudio Pinhanez, Cícero dos Santos, Daniel Gribel, Ana Paula Appel

Formal Approaches in MABS: Design and Validation

Frontmatter
Dynamic Identity Model for Agents
Abstract
Our identity plays an important role in our lives - it regulates our thoughts, feelings and behaviours. For that reason researchers have been focusing on identity and the way it can impact an agent’s processes and make them more believable. Because identity is dynamic, people’s behaviours will differ according to different contexts. The presence of others as well as several other social context’s factors have an effect on the way someone is going to perceive oneself. Whether as part of a group with shared interests among its members, or as unique and distinctive individual, the perception of group membership is going to determine if one’s behaviour is going to be influenced by one’s social identity or personal identity. When a social identity is salient, people tend to cooperate more with members of their group even when the group’s goals differ from their own personal goals. Due to that impact, we believe that a dynamic identity is especially important if the aim is to build believable agents with the ability to adjust their decisions to the social context they are in. In this paper, we present a Dynamic Identity Model for Agents that provides agents with an adaptive identity and behaviour that is adjustable to the social context.
Joana Dimas, Rui Prada
Verification and Validation of Agent-Based Simulations Using Approximate Model Checking
Abstract
This paper focusses on the usefulness of approximate probabilistic model checking for the internal and external validation of large-scale agent-based simulations. We describe the translation of typical validation criteria into a variant of linear time logic. We further present a prototypical version of a highly customisable approximate model checker which we used in a range of experiments to verify properties of large scale models whose complexity prevents them from being amenable to conventional explicit or symbolic model checking.
Benjamin Herd, Simon Miles, Peter McBurney, Michael Luck
Validating Simulated Networks: Some Lessons Learned
Abstract
Checking the network generated by a simulation against network data from the system being simulated holds out the promise of a fairly-strong validation. However, this poses some challenges. The nature of this task and its attended challenges are here discussed, and the outlines of a method for doing this sketched. This is illustrated using a synthetic and target network, applying increasingly detailed methods to elucidate the structure of these networks and hence make a tougher and more revealing comparison. We end with a discussion of the prospects and further challenges.
Shah Jamal Alam, S. M. Ali Abbas, Bruce Edmonds

MABS in Environmental Modeling

Frontmatter
The MAELIA Multi-Agent Platform for Integrated Analysis of Interactions Between Agricultural Land-Use and Low-Water Management Strategies
Abstract
The MAELIA project is developing an agent-based modeling and simulation platform to study the environmental, economic and social impacts of various regulations regarding water use and water management in combination with climate change. It is applied to the case of the French Adour-Garonne Basin, which is the most concerned in France by water scarcity during the low-water period. An integrated approach has been chosen to model this social-ecological system: the model combines spatiotemporal models of ecologic (e.g. rainfall and temperature changes, water flow and plant growth) and socio-economic (e.g. farmer decision-making process, management of low-water flow, demography, land use and land cover changes) processes and sub-models of cognitive sharing among agents (e.g. weather forecast, normative constraints on behaviors).
Benoit Gaudou, Christophe Sibertin-Blanc, Olivier Therond, Frédéric Amblard, Yves Auda, Jean-Paul Arcangeli, Maud Balestrat, Marie-Hélène Charron-Moirez, Etienne Gondet, Yi Hong, Romain Lardy, Thomas Louail, Eunate Mayor, David Panzoli, Sabine Sauvage, José-Miguel Sánchez-Pérez, Patrick Taillandier, Nguyen Van Bai, Maroussia Vavasseur, Pierre Mazzega
Globalisation, Regionalisation and Behavioural Responses of Land Use Agents
Abstract
The global land system is under intense pressure from human demands for a range of different services. Neo-classical economic theory suggests that globalised free trade is the most efficient way of handling these demands, allowing maximum productivity and specialisation of supply. However, political responses are often protectionist in nature, designed to ensure continuity of land uses and the regional production of multiple services. We investigate the implications of both globalisation and regionalisation of demand for the efficiency and productivity of land uses and, using an agent-based model of land use change, how realistic forms of human behaviour can strengthen, weaken or alter these implications. We show that ‘rational’ productive agents tend towards optimal land use configurations under globalised systems, but that ‘irrational’ behaviour yields superior results under regionalisation. Finally, the adoption of multifunctional land uses is found to be a strong and effective emergent property of agent populations under regional demand.
Calum Brown, Dave Murray-Rust, Jasper van Vliet, Shah Jamal Alam, Peter H. Verburg, Mark D. Rounsevell
Simulating the Expansion of Large-Sized Farms in Rural Netherlands: A Land Exchange Model
Abstract
This paper introduces a data-driven agent-based simulation model of rural land exchange in the Netherlands. The model development process is part of an ongoing research program aiming at understanding the effects of climate change and socioeconomic drivers on agriculture land use and nature conservation. The first model version reported in this paper, is being developed for the Baakse Beek region in the Netherlands and is empirically grounded. The general framework described in this paper will be applied to another case study area in the Netherlands in the second phase of our research program and compare the projected land use patterns in the two case studies region.
Shah Jamal Alam, Martha M. Bakker, Eleni Karali, Jerry van Dijk, Mark D. Rounsevell

Simulating Social Phenomena

Frontmatter
Multi-Agent-Based Simulation of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Growth
Abstract
Tuberculosis is an infectious disease that still causes many deaths around the world nowadays. It is caused by the M. tuberculosis bacillus. The study of the growth curve of this infectious organism is relevant as it has wide applications in tuberculosis research. In this work a Multi-Agent-Based Simulation is proposed to pursue the reproduction in silico of the observed in vitro M. tuberculosis growth curves. Simulation results are qualitatively compared with growth curves obtained in vitro with a recent proposed methodology. The results are promising and indicate that the chosen simulation methodology has the potential to serve as a platform for testing different bacterial growing behaviour as well as bacteria growth under different conditions.
Pablo Werlang, Michel Q. Fagundes, Diana F. Adamatti, Karina S. Machado, Andrea von Groll, Pedro E. A. da Silva, Adriano V. Werhli
Who Creates Housing Bubbles? An Agent-Based Study
Abstract
This paper develops an agent-based spatial model of the housing market. A house is many families’ biggest asset. It is also widely held by financial institutions, in the form of mortgage-backed securities. As a result, avoiding extreme housing price volatility is crucial for maintaining financial stability of the nation. The housing market is very unique: it is less liquid, highly regulated, highly leveraged, involves speculative behaviors, and exhibits spatial correlations. To this day, there are few housing market models that take into account all of these complications. In this paper, we propose an agent-based spatial model of the U.S. housing market. Preliminary results show that sensible aggregate outcomes that are generated from individual interaction, and a lenient lending criteria might be responsible for causing a housing bubble.
Jiaqi Ge
Towards Simulating the Impact of National Culture on Organizations
Abstract
Both culture and organizations are concepts which have been partially formalized. Only some of their aspects have been specified to build agent-based models. In this conceptual article, we identify and characterize the features that should be considered when building an agent-based model of an organization taking into account the influence of culture. In particular, we investigate the impact culture can have on the delegation, coordination, control and normative structures of organizations and on the way these structures are used. Moreover, we describe how this cultural impact would influence the three central performance criteria of organizations: efficiency, flexibility and robustness.
Loïs Vanhée, Frank Dignum, Jacques Ferber
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Multi-Agent-Based Simulation XIV
herausgegeben von
Shah Jamal Alam
H. Van Dyke Parunak
Copyright-Jahr
2014
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN
978-3-642-54783-6
Print ISBN
978-3-642-54782-9
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-54783-6

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