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2020 | Buch

Methodology for Quantified Risk Assessment Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

Offshore Risk Assessment Vol. 2

Principles, Modelling and Applications of QRA Studies

verfasst von: Prof. Dr. Jan-Erik Vinnem, Prof. Dr. Willy Røed

Verlag: Springer London

Buchreihe : Springer Series in Reliability Engineering

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik"

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Über dieses Buch

This is the first textbook to address quantified risk assessment (QRA) as specifically applied to offshore installations and operations. As the second part of the two-volume updated and expanded fourth edition, it adds a new focus on the recent development of Normally Unattended Installations (NUIs), which are essentially autonomous installations that combine digitalization, big data, drones and machine learning, and can be supported by W2W (walk-to-work) vessels. These minimalistic installations with no helideck and very limited safety systems will require a new approach to risk assessment and emergency planning, especially during manned periods involving W2W vessels.

Separate chapters analyse the main hazards for offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects, as well as structural and marine hazards. The book explores possible simplifications of risk assessment for traditional manned installations. Risk mitigation and control are also discussed, as well as how the results of quantitative risk assessment studies should be presented. In closing, the book provides an updated approach to environmental risk assessment.

The book offers a comprehensive reference guide for academics and students of marine/offshore risk assessment and management. It will also be of interest to professionals in the industry, as well as contractors, suppliers, consultants and regulatory authorities.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Risk Analysis, Presentation and Evaluation Process

Frontmatter
1. Methodology for Quantified Risk Assessment
Abstract
Although risk may be assessed in both a qualitative and quantitative way, this book primarily deals with quantitative methods. Thus qualitative risk assessment and safety review methods are not covered explicitly in this chapter, which provides a brief overview of the methodology for QRA with the main emphasis on the main steps. Further details are presented in the following chapters.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
2. Analysis Techniques
Abstract
Chapter 14 has presented an overview of all the steps involved in performing a QRA. This chapter is devoted to the main analysis techniques that may be used. Hazard identification, analysis of causes, frequencies and dependencies as well as accident sequences are covered. Leak modelling and ignition modelling as well as escalation modelling are also main topics of this chapter.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
3. Presentation of Risk Results from QRAQRA Studies
Abstract
One of the requirements for presentation of risk results is that a comprehensive overview of the risk picture shall be given, together with a detailed insight into conditions and vulnerabilities. These are relatively vague requirements, and it is probably not clear what is implied. This chapter attempts to fill that gap, and to illustrate how the risk picture on an installation may be presented. Only fatality risk to personnel is considered for an FPSO concept with hypothetical results. Only fatalities on the installation are included. The emphasis is on presentation of risk. Any reference to risk tolerance criteria is therefore omitted.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
4. Evaluation of Personnel Risk Levels
Abstract
This chapter provides an insight into current fatality risk levels for personnel, as a background for the evaluation of risk results, including the formulation of risk tolerance (or acceptance) criteria for personnel risk. An overview is presented of the components of fatality risk levels for personnel, and possible fatalities in the future are predicted. There has been extensive debate about evacuation means (i.e. lifeboats) in the Norwegian sector for some years. It is therefore essential to form an opinion about the frequency of major accidents and the need for evacuation by seaborne resources. Finally, the chapter considers how risk tolerance criteria for personnel may be expressed.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
5. Environmental Risk Analysis
Abstract
Norway was the first country to have requirements for environmental risk analysis and has had these for more than 20 years. Recently other countries have also implemented requirements, through a new EU directive [16]. This chapter provides an overview of the environmental spill risk and presents the regulatory requirements. The risk analysis methodology is presented, with the focus on the MIRA approach. However, this method is going to be replaced by a new method called ERA Acute. Although the new method has not been finalised, some of the prospective changes have been reflected upon. The presentation of environmental risk is discussed in detail and needs for improvements are identified. The text in this chapter is to some extent based on Refs. [9] and [17].
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
6. Approach to Risk Based Design
Abstract
Challenges for risk based design are introduced, followed by regulatory requirements. The use of risk analysis in risk based design is discussed for topside systems, structural and passive systems, as well as a brief reference to Safety Integrity Levels.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
7. Risk Based Emergency Response Planning
Abstract
This chapter provides an overview of the use of risk analysis as an input into emergency response planning, including the area-based emergency response planning for established areas in the Norwegian sector. Most attention is devoted to the determination of the required rescue capacity of personnel in the sea, in liferafts and injured personnel in lifeboats. In addition, the requirements for external firefighting capacity, the rescue of personnel after helicopter accidents and assistance to seriously injured and sick persons are briefly discussed. The benefits of area-based emergency response arrangements are also outlined.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed

Risk Assessment and Monitoring in Operations Phase

Frontmatter
8. Use of Risk Analysis During the Operations Phase
Abstract
Quantitative risk analysis was for a long time used mainly for the design phase and for extensive modifications. If the analysis was carried out in the operations phase, it was conducted in a way corresponding to use in the design phase, without reflecting the vast differences between design and operation from a HES (or strictly speaking major hazard risk) management point of view. The use of QRA in the operations phase has increased in the last ten to fifteen years. It is now conducted in different ways, in order to reflect the important differences from a management point of view. Several aspects in this connection are discussed in this chapter including updating of QRA studies, operational improvements, barrier improvements, and analysis of maintenance and modifications. The main use of risk evaluations in the operations phase is for qualitative evaluations, as review and work preparation tools. This is also briefly considered.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
9. Management of Risk and Emergency Preparedness for Future NUI Production Concepts
Abstract
The framework conditions for offshore petroleum oil and gas production in Norway for the coming years are outlined, followed by a brief discussion of future normally unmanned production concepts. Legislation for unmanned installations is reviewed, followed by a discussion of the safety systems that should be installed on future normally unmanned installations. A case study is presented for a fictitious NUI facility, and risk results are presented for three different cases with varying extent of safety systems installed. The case study results are discussed with respect to the risk levels for personnel for these three cases. Finally, some challenges from the risk management point of view for normally unmanned installations are discussed.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
10. Use of Risk Indicators for Major Hazard Risk
Abstract
This chapter starts with a general discussion on the indicators of major hazard risk, followed by a discussion of the Risk Level project by PSA in Norway and the lessons learned from this project with respect to major hazard risk indicators. The final part discusses how major hazard risk indicators should be used by individual companies and installations, in order to control major hazard risk.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
11. Barrier Management for Major Hazard Risk
Abstract
In this chapter the barrier concepts and philosophy of barrier management are explained, based upon authority requirements and expectations. The way to establish barrier strategies is then discussed, followed by a discussion of the management of barriers in the operations phase. Some examples and challenges are also described.
Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Offshore Risk Assessment Vol. 2
verfasst von
Prof. Dr. Jan-Erik Vinnem
Prof. Dr. Willy Røed
Copyright-Jahr
2020
Verlag
Springer London
Electronic ISBN
978-1-4471-7448-6
Print ISBN
978-1-4471-7447-9
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-7448-6

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