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Demography
Erschienen in: Demography 4/2011

01.11.2011

On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum

verfasst von: Thomas J. Espenshade, Analia S. Olgiati, Simon A. Levin

Erschienen in: Demography | Ausgabe 4/2011

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Abstract

This article decomposes total population momentum into two constituent and multiplicative parts: “nonstable” momentum and “stable” momentum. Nonstable momentum depends on deviations between a population’s current age distribution and its implied stable age distribution. Stable momentum is a function of deviations between a population’s implied stable and stationary age distributions. In general, the factorization of total momentum into the product of nonstable and stable momentum is a very good approximation. The factorization is exact, however, when the current age distribution is stable or when observed fertility is already at replacement. We provide numerical illustrations by calculating nonstable, stable, and total momentum for 176 countries, the world, and its major regions. In short, the article brings together disparate strands of the population momentum literature and shows how the various kinds of momentum fit together into a single unifying framework.
Vorheriger Artikel Purchasing Piety? Coresidence of Married Children With Their Older Parents in Japan
Nächster Artikel Who Receives Food Stamps During Adulthood? Analyzing Repeatable Events With Incomplete Event Histories

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Fußnoten
1
Previous work to decompose total momentum has emphasized its age-specific components (Preston 1986; Schoen and Kim 1991). Guillot (2005) decomposed total momentum into two multiplicative factors: (1) the direct effect of improvements in cohort survivorship and (2) fluctuations in annual numbers of births.
 
2
Vincent (1945) described the phenomenon of population momentum (what he called the “potential increase of a population”) and introduced a method to measure it. He also developed the theory behind the stable equivalent population and independently invented Fisher’s reproductive value without calling them such. This work was later extended and renamed by Keyfitz (1969, 1971). Another path of development in the momentum literature examines the growth consequences of a gradual decline in fertility to replacement. Pioneering empirical research was undertaken by Frejka (1973). Seminal work by Li and Tuljapurkar (1999, 2000) has sparked a new line of formal analysis.
 
3
Other work has approximated total momentum by comparing observed and stationary population age distributions. Kim and Schoen (1993) expressed momentum as the ratio of the proportion in the observed population to the proportion in the stationary population at a given age determined by the crossover point of their respective reproductive value functions. Momentum has also been approximated by the ratio of the proportion under age 30 in the observed population to the proportion under age 30 in the stationary population (Kim and Schoen 1997; Kim et al. 1991).
 
4
Nineteen U.N. countries that are not WHO members have been excluded from the analysis. They range in size from Aruba (total population of 103,000, including men and women) to Hong Kong (with a population of 7.1 million). The average population size of the excluded countries is approximately 1.1 million total persons.
 
5
The percentage deviations in Fig. 4, including all 176 countries, have a standard deviation of 0.331, a mean value of 0.033, and a median value of 0.047.
 
6
Mean and median values, respectively, in Fig. 5 are as follows: in panel (a), 0.972 and 0.961; in panel (b), 1.451 and 1.491; and in panel (c), 1.334 and 1.429.
 
7
Low fertility by itself is not enough to produce large values for nonstable momentum. Italy’s total fertility rate in 2000–2005 was 1.29 (United Nations 2007), similar to that in Korea (1.24), Armenia (1.35), Slovakia (1.22), and Poland (1.25). But Italy’s nonstable momentum coefficient is only 1.382 because Italian fertility has been low for several decades, giving the younger part of its age distribution time to adjust to lower fertility.
 
8
In addition, each of the more-developed countries has a stable momentum value less than 1.0, which coincides with below-replacement fertility. The lone exception is Albania, whose net reproduction rate is 1.05.
 
9
In 2005, female life expectancy at birth was estimated at 52.0 years in Chad compared with 68.4 years in Mongolia. Chad had a total fertility rate of 6.54, and 18.6% of all persons were under age 5. By contrast, the total fertility rate for Mongolia was 2.07, and just 9.1% of the population were under age 5 (United Nations 2007).
 
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Metadaten
Titel
On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum
verfasst von
Thomas J. Espenshade
Analia S. Olgiati
Simon A. Levin
Publikationsdatum
01.11.2011
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Demography / Ausgabe 4/2011
Print ISSN: 0070-3370
Elektronische ISSN: 1533-7790
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-011-0063-y

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