1994 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Parameter Sensitivity and the Quality of Model Predictions
verfasst von : Hans J. Poethke, Detlef Oertel, Alfred Seitz
Erschienen in: Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Enthalten in: Professional Book Archive
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Using SIM-PEL, a comprehensive model for the pelagic compartment of lake ecosystems, we analyse synergistic toxicant effects in lake ecosystems. We show, that — even for a rather simple model — model predictions may be strongly dependent on the time horizon of the prediction and on the quality of input parameters. For longer time spans, small errors in parameter estimation may lead to qualitatively wrong prediction of toxicant effects. Monte Carlo simulations allow to take errors in parameter estimation into account, but they need rather good estimates of parameter variance.