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2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

5. Party’s Issue Competence and Electoral Decisions in Taiwan’s 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections

verfasst von : Ching-hsin Yu, T. Y. Wang

Erschienen in: Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

Employing the theory of issue ownership, this chapter finds that voters’ concerns about Taiwan’s increasing economic dependence on China, together with a series of domestic events, have altered voter’s perceptions of the KMT’s issue competence, particularly in managing cross-Strait relations. This shifting perception of issue competence in part explained the KMT’s electoral misfortune in 2016. However, partisanship and candidate attributes continued to play a major role in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections. While the role of issue ownership and perceived issue competence cannot be ignored, their effects on Taiwanese citizens’ electoral decisions may vary from election to election.

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Vorheriges Kapitel The Rise of the New Power Party in Taiwan’s 2016 Legislative Election: Reality and Challenges

Nächstes Kapitel A Comparative Study of the China Factor in Taiwan and Hong Kong Elections

For an analysis of the development Taiwanese citizens’ identity, see T.Y. Wang, “Changing Boundaries: The Development of Taiwan Voters’ Identity,” in The Taiwan Voter, eds. Christopher H. Achen and T.Y. Wang. (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2017).

John Petrocik, “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study,” American Journal of Political Science 43.3 (1996): 864–87.

Shing-yuan Sheng and Hsiao-chuan Liao, “Issues, Political Cleavages, and Party Competition in Taiwan,” in Taiwan Voter, eds. Christopher H. Achen and T.Y. Wang (Ann Arbor: U of Michigan Press, 2017).

The survey data analyzed in this chapter are from “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2009–2012(III): the Survey of the Presidential and Legislative Elections, 2012 (TEDS 2012)” and “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2012–2016 (IV): the Survey of the Presidential and Legislative Elections, 2016 (TEDS2016)”. The principal investigators are Yun-han Chu and Chi Huang, respectively. Chi Huang is also the coordinator of the multi-year project TEDS. More information is available on the TEDS website (http://www.tedsnet.org). The authors would like to thank the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University in Taiwan, for making the survey data available. All errors are our own.

Ian Budge and Dennis Farlie, Explaining and Predicting Elections (London: Allen & Unwin, 1983); Ian Budge and Dennis Farlie, “Party Competition-Selective Emphasis or Direct Confrontation? An Alternative View with Data,” in West European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, eds. H. Daalder and Peter Mair (London: Sage, 1983), 267–305; Petrocik, John. 1989. “The Theory of Issue Ownership: Issues, Agendas, and Electoral Coalitions in the 1988 Election.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta; Petrocik, “Issue Ownership,” 864–87.

Stephen Ansolabehere and Shanto Iyengar, “Riding the Wave and Claiming Ownership Over Issues: The Joint Effects of Advertising and News Coverage in Campaigns,” The Public Opinion Quarterly 58.3 (1994): 335–57; Petcock, “Issue Ownership”; John Petrocik, William L. Benoit and Glenn J. Hansen, “Issue Ownership and Presidential Campaigning, 1952–2000,” Political Science Quarterly 118.4 (2003/2004): 599–626.

William H. Riker, The Strategy of Rhetoric: Campaigning for the American Constitution (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1996).

Karen M. Kaufmann, “Disaggregating and Reexamining Issue Ownership and Voter Choice,” Polity 36.2 (2004): 283–99.

David B. Holian, “He’s Stealing My Issues! Clinton’s Crime Rhetoric and the Dynamics of Issue Ownership,” Political Behavior 26.2 (2004): 95–124.

David F. Damore, “The Dynamics of Issue Ownership in Presidential Campaigns,” Political Research Quarterly 57.3 (2004): 391–97; David F. Damore, “Issue Convergence in Presidential Campaigns,” Political Behavior 27.1 (2005): 71–97; Noah Kaplan, David K. Park, and Travis Ridout, “Dialogue in American Political Campaigns? An Examination of Issue Convergence in Candidate Television Advertising,” American Journal of Political Science 50.3 (2006): 724–36; Lee Sigelman and Emmett H. Buell, “Avoidance or Engagement? Issue Convergence in US Presidential Campaigns, 1960–2000,” American Journal of Political Science 48.4 (2004): 650–61.

Paolo Bellucci, “Tracing the Cognitive and Affective Roots of Party Competence: Italy and Britain, 2001,” Electoral Studies 25 (2006): 548–69; Jand Green and Will Jennings, “The Dynamics of Issue Competence and Vote for Parties In and Out of Power: An Analysis of Valence in Britain, 1979–1997,” European Journal of Political Research 51.4 (2012): 469–503.

E. Bélanger and B. Meguid, “Issue Salience, Issue Ownership and Issue-Based Vote Choice: Evidence from Canada,” Electoral Studies 27.3 (2008): 477–91; Stefaan Walgrave et al., “The Limits of Issue Ownership Dynamics: The Constraining Effect of Party Preference,” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 24.1 (2014): 1–19.

Shana Kushner Gadarian, “Foreign Policy at the Ballot Box: How Citizens Use Foreign Policy to Judge and Choose Candidates,” The Journal of Politics 72.4 (2010): 1046–62.

Hannah Goble and Peter M. Holm, “Breaking Bonds: The Iraq War and the Loss of Republican Dominance in National Security,” Political Research Quarterly 62.2 (June 2009): 215–29.

Petrocik, “Issue Ownership,” 864–87.

Ching-Ching Chang, “The Effects of Political Advertising: The Role of Issue Ownership,” Chinese Journal of Communication Research 16 (2009): 93–129; Chiung-chu Lin, “Party Competence and Vote Choice in the 2012 Election in Taiwan,” International Journal of China Studies 5.1 (2014): 49–70; Sheng and Liao, “Issues.”

John W. Garver, Face Off: China, the United States, and Taiwan’s Democratization. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1997.

Damore, “Issue Convergence,” 71–97.

Executive Yuan, “Employment Promotion Plan of 98–101 (98-101nian chujin jiuye fangan),” The Republic of China, accessed July 6, 2009. http://www.ey.gov.tw/public/Attachment/93102155871.pdf; Ying-jeou Ma, “New Year’s Day Celebratory Message,” Government Information Office, Republic of China, January 1, 2009, accessed July 6, 2009. http://www.gio.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=44972&ctNode=2462.

The 1992 Consensus presumably is a verbal agreement between Beijing and Taipei that allows them to interpret what “one China” means in their own ways. See Su Chi and Cheng An-guo, eds., Yige Zhongguo, gezi biaoshu’ gongshi de shishi (One China, Different Interpretations: An Account of the Consensus) (Taipei: Guojia zhengce yanjiu jijinhui, 2002).

J. R., “Politics in Taiwan: Sunflower Sutra,” Economist, April 8, 2014, accessed January 20, 2015. http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/04/politics-taiwan.

Sheng and Liao, “Issues.”

The Da-pu Incident originated from the forceful destruction of a civilian’s house by a local county government on the grounds of urban planning and development. The owner committed suicide to protest. The incident was viewed as a matter of social injustice and attracted substantial public attention (see Taipei Times, “Miaoli will not fight Dapu ruling, but refuses redress,” February 7, 2014, accessed March, 30, 2017. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/02/07/2003582955).

Hung Chung-chiu was an enlisted soldier who was abused to death by his commanding officer. The Ministry of Defense resisted the disclosure of information related to the event, which invite public condemnation that led to the resignation of two high ranking officials and Ma’s public apology (see BBC, “Taiwan protest over Hung Chung-chiu death,” August 3, 2013, accessed March 30, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-23561244).

BBC, “Taiwan Protest.”

James Soong of the People’s First Party (PFP) was the third presidential candidate in both elections. The measurement scheme adopted in this research essentially excludes respondents who supported Soong for two reasons. First, there were few PFP supporters in 2012 and the associated sample size is too small for a meaningful analysis. Second, questions of issue ownership in both surveys only compare the KMT and the DPP, while those on the PFP are not included.

The survey question on defending Taiwan’s sovereignty was not included in the 2012 survey.

William Jacoby, “The American Voter,” in The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, ed. Jan E. Leighley (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010), 260–77.

Ing-wen Tsai, “Inaugural Ceremony of the 14th-term President and Vice President of the Republic of China (Taiwan),” Office of the President, Republic of China (Taiwan), 2016, accessed July 28, 2017. http://english.president.gov.tw/Page/252.

Beijing leaders’ response to Tsai’s inaugural address can be accessed at “http://www.gwytb.gov.cn/wyly/201605/t20160520_11463128.htm (accessed July 28, 2017).

Nicola Smith, “China Is Using Tourism to Hit Taiwan Where It Really Hurts,” Times, November 16, 2016, accessed July 28, 2017. http://time.com/4574290/china-taiwan-tourism-tourists/.

The “diplomatic truce” is a tacit understanding between Beijing and Taipei under former President Ma Ying-jeou. Because Ma endorsed the 1992 Consensus, Chinese leaders implicitly agreed to suspend the tug-of-war for diplomatic recognition, an issue on which Beijing has an overwhelming advantage. Since Tsai took office in 2016, Panama and Sao Tome and Principe switched their diplomatic recognition to Beijing, which reduced the number of countries to 20 that formally recognize Taiwan. See Elida Moreno and Philip Wen, “Panama Establishes Ties With China, Ditches Taiwan in Win For Beijing,” Reuters, June 12, 2017, accessed July 28, 2017. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-panama-china-idUSKBN194054.

D.D. Wu, “WHO Déjà Vu: Taiwan Not Invited to World Health Assembly,” The Diplomat, May 13, 2017, accessed July 28, 2017. http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/who-deja-vu-taiwan-not-invited-to-world-health-assembly/.

This observation is based on panel discussions with officials of various ministries in Taiwan, June 19–23, 2017.

David G. Brown, “Governing Taiwan Is Not Easy: President Tsai Ing-wen’s First Year.” May 17, 2017. Accessed July 10, 2017. https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/governing-taiwan-is-not-easy-president-tsai-ing-wens-first-year/ and Michelle Winglee, “On Taiwan, the Honeymoon Is Over”, The Diplomat, March 2, 2017. Accessed July 10, 2017. http://thediplomat.com/2017/03/on-taiwan-the-honeymoon-is-over/.

This observation is based on a panel discussion with President Tsai, June 20, 2017.

Hudson Lockett, “China aircraft carrier enters Taiwan’s air defence identification zone,” Financial Times, July 11, 2017, accessed July 29, 2017. https://www.ft.com/content/fad6ea94-09b8-37fa-b427-5519193c535a.

Ansolabehere, Stephen, and Shanto Iyengar. 1994. Riding the Wave and Claiming Ownership Over Issues: The Joint Effects of Advertising and News Coverage in Campaigns. The Public Opinion Quarterly 58 (3): 335–357.CrossRef

BBC. 2013. Taiwan Protest Over Hung Chung-chiu Death. August 3. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-23561244. Accessed 30 Mar 2017.

Bélanger, E., and B. Meguid. 2008. Issue Salience, Issue Ownership and Issue-Based Vote Choice: Evidence from Canada. Electoral Studies 27 (3): 477–491.CrossRef

Bellucci, Paolo. 2006. Tracing the Cognitive and Affective Roots of Party Competence: Italy and Britain, 2001. Electoral Studies 25: 548–569.CrossRef

Brown, David G. 2017. Governing Taiwan Is Not Easy: President Tsai Ing-wen’s First Year. May 17. https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/governing-taiwan-is-not-easy-president-tsai-ing-wens-first-year/. Accessed 10 July 2017.

Budge, Ian, and Dennis Farlie. 1983a. Explaining and Predicting Elections. London: Allen & Unwin.

———. 1983b. Party Competition-Selective Emphasis or Direct Confrontation? An Alternative View with Data. In West European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, ed. H. Daalder and Peter Mair, 267–305. London: Sage.

Carmines, Edward G., and James A. Stimson. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Chang, Ching-ching. 2009. The Effects of Political Advertising: The Role of Issue Ownership. Chinese Journal of Communication Research 16: 93–129.

Chu, Yun-han. 2012. Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2009–2012(III): The Survey of the Presidential and Legislative Elections, 2012 (TEDS 2012).

Damore, David F. 2004. The Dynamics of Issue Ownership in Presidential Campaigns. Political Research Quarterly 57 (3): 391–397.CrossRef

———. 2005. Issue Convergence in Presidential Campaigns. Political Behavior 27 (1): 71–97.CrossRef

Executive Yuan. 2009. Employment Promotion Plan of 98–101 [98–101nian chujin jiuye fangan]. The Republic of China. http://www.ey.gov.tw/public/Attachment/93102155871.pdf. Accessed 6 July 2009.

Gadarian, Shana Kushner. 2010. Foreign Policy at the Ballot Box: How Citizens Use Foreign Policy to Judge and Choose Candidates. The Journal of Politics 72 (4): 1046–1062.CrossRef

Garver, John W. 1997. Face Off: China, the United States, and Taiwan’s Democratization. Seattle: University of Washington Press.

Goble, Hannah, and Peter M. Holm. June 2009. Breaking Bonds? The Iraq War and the Loss of Republican Dominance in National Security. Political Research Quarterly 62 (2): 215–229.CrossRef

Green, Jand, and Will Jennings. 2012. The Dynamics of Issue Competence and Vote for Parties In and Out of Power: An Analysis of Valence in Britain, 1979–1997. European Journal of Political Research 51 (4): 469–503.CrossRef

Holian, David B. 2004. He’s Stealing My Issues! Clinton’s Crime Rhetoric and the Dynamics of Issue Ownership. Political Behavior 26 (2): 95–124.CrossRef

Huang, Chi. 2016. Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2012–2016 (IV): The Survey of the Presidential and Legislative Elections, 2016 (TEDS 2016).

J. R. 2014. Politics in Taiwan: Sunflower Sutra. Economist, April 8. http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/04/politics-taiwan. Accessed 20 Jan 2015.

Jacoby, William. 2010. The American Voter. In The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, ed. Jan E. Leighley, 260–277. New York: Oxford University Press.

Kaplan, Noah, David K. Park, and Travis Ridout. 2006. Dialogue in American Political Campaigns? An Examination of Issue Convergence in Candidate Television Advertising. American Journal of Political Science 50 (3): 724–736.CrossRef

Kaufmann, Karen M. 2004. Disaggregating and Reexamining Issue Ownership and Voter Choice. Polity 36 (2): 283–299.CrossRef

Lefevere, Jonas, Anke Tresch, and Stefaan Walgrave. 2015. Introduction: Issue Ownership. West European Politics 38 (4): 755–760.CrossRef

Lin, Chiung-chu. 2014. Party Competence and Vote Choice in the 2012 Election in Taiwan. International Journal of China Studies 5 (1): 49–70.

Lockett, Hudson. 2017. China Aircraft Carrier Enters Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone. Financial Times, July 11. https://www.ft.com/content/fad6ea94-09b8-37fa-b427-5519193c535a. Accessed 29 July 2017.

Ma, Ying-jeou. 2009. New Year’s Day Celebratory Message. Government Information Office, Republic of China, January 1. http://www.gio.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=44972&ctNode=2462. Accessed 6 July 2009.

Moreno, Elida, and Philip Wen. 2017. Panama Establishes Ties with China, Ditches Taiwan in Win for Beijing. Reuters, June 12. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-panama-china-idUSKBN194054. Accessed 28 July 2017.

Petrocik, John. 1989. The Theory of Issue Ownership: Issues, Agendas, and Electoral Coalitions in the 1988 Election. Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta.

———. 1996. Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study. American Journal of Political Science 43 (3): 864–887.

Petrocik, John, William L. Benoit and Glenn J. Hansen. (2003/2004). Issue Ownership and Presidential Campaigning, 1952–2000. Political Science Quarterly 118 (4), Winter: 599–626.CrossRef

Riker, William H. 1996. The Strategy of Rhetoric: Campaigning for the American Constitution. New Haven: Yale University.

Sheng, Shing-yuan, and Hsiao-chuan Liao. 2017. Issues, Political Cleavages, and Party Competition in Taiwan. In Taiwan Voter, ed. Chris Achen and T.Y. Wang. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, forthcoming.

Sigelman, Lee, and Emmett H. Buell. 2004. Avoidance or Engagement? Issue Convergence in U.S. Presidential Campaigns, 1960–2000. American Journal of Political Science 48 (4): 650–661.CrossRef

Simon, Adam F. 2002. The Winning Message: Candidate Behavior, Campaign Discourse, and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef

Smith, Nicola. 2016. China Is Using Tourism to Hit Taiwan Where It Really Hurts. Times, November 16. http://time.com/4574290/china-taiwan-tourism-tourists/. Accessed 28 July 2017.

Stubager, Rune, and Rune Slothuus. 2013. What Are the Sources of Political Parties’ Issue Ownership? Testing Four Explanations at the Individual Level. Political Behavior 35: 567–558.CrossRef

Su Chi, and Cheng An-guo, eds. Yige Zhongguo, gezi biaoshu’ gongshi de shishi [One China, Different Interpretations: An Account of the Consensus]. Taipei: Guojia zhengce yanjiu jijinhui, 2002.

Taipei Times. 2014. Miaoli Will Not Fight Dapu Ruling, but Refuses Redress. p. 4. February 7, 2014. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/02/07/2003582955. Accessed 30 Mar 2017.

Tsai, Ing-wen. 2016. Inaugural Ceremony of the 14th-term President and Vice President of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Office of the President, Republic of China (Taiwan). http://english.president.gov.tw/Page/252. Accessed 28 July 2017.

Walgrave, Stefaan, Jonas Lefevere, and Anke Tresch. 2014. The Limits of Issue Ownership Dynamics: The Constraining Effect of Party Preference. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 24 (1): 1–19.CrossRef

Wang, T.Y. 2017. Changing Boundaries: The Development of Taiwan Voters’ Identity. In The Taiwan Voter, ed. Christopher Achen and T.Y. Wang. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Winglee, Michelle. 2017. On Taiwan, The Honeymoon Is Over. The Diplomat, March 2. http://thediplomat.com/2017/03/on-taiwan-the-honeymoon-is-over/. Accessed 10 July 2017

Wu, DD. 2017. WHO Déjà Vu: Taiwan Not Invited to World Health Assembly. The Diplomat, May 13. http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/who-deja-vu-taiwan-not-invited-to-world-health-assembly/. Accessed 28 July 2017.

Titel: Party’s Issue Competence and Electoral Decisions in Taiwan’s 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections
verfasst von: Ching-hsin Yu
T. Y. Wang
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-77124-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-77125-0

Copyright-Jahr: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77125-0_5