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2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

12. Potential Implications of the IPCC Reform: Deliberative Learning and Difficulties of In-Depth Policy Assessment

verfasst von : Martin Kowarsch

Erschienen in: A Pragmatist Orientation for the Social Sciences in Climate Policy

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter concludes the enquiry of this book into a new guideline for integrated economic assessments. The proposals for future integrated economic assessments made in Chap. 11 are briefly evaluated (Sect. 12.4) in light of the assumed direct effects of these proposals regarding the general norms for scientific expertise in policy from Part I (Sect. 12.1), risks and unwanted side effects (Sect. 12.2), and possible co-benefits (Sect. 12.3). This discussion can be regarded as Step 4 of a Deweyan enquiry; it is about evaluating (1) the means proposed for overcoming the problems of current integrated economic assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and (2) perhaps even the underlying general norms for scientific expertise in policy themselves – in light of the possible practical implications of these means. It is argued that realising the proposals from Chap. 11 may have several valuable positive effects, including on deliberative policy learning, while perhaps also facing some remaining challenges regarding feasibility and acceptance. Gaps in research and potential applications of the proposals to institutions other than the IPCC are discussed in Sect. 12.4. Finally, the thoughts on a philosophy-based framework for future integrated economic assessments developed in the present book are summarised (Sect. 12.5).

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Vorheriges Kapitel Elements of a Guideline for Future Integrated Economic Assessments of the IPCC

Such examples include, e.g., (1) alternative scenarios for the controversial issue of bioenergy in the IPCC SRREN (see particularly the exemplary figure TS.2.9 of the Technical Summary; IPCC 2011, p. 59); (2) the two volumes of the Mirrlees Review of the tax system (see http://www.ifs.org.uk/mirrleesReview; accessed 30 Jun 2015); and (3) an assessment of geo-engineering options by the Royal Society (see http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2009/geoengineering-climate/; accessed 30 Jun 2015).

As a feedback to my proposals developed in this book, I sometimes heard assessment practitioners saying that these are precisely the ideas that guide their own work. However, when analysing the practice at the science-policy interface (IPCC and beyond), my feeling is that they significantly underestimate how far-reaching the proposals developed here actually are.

Methodological questions include, e.g.: how to deal with the complexity of multi-level governance and the various interdependencies? How to deal with value judgements in policy analysis? What are appropriate indicators and methods for ex-post policy evaluation?

Furthermore, the standpoints of some societal groups – that do, e.g., not have the funds and networks to initiate the production of scientific studies advocating for their interests – are often neglected in public debates. My arguments here, however, do not necessarily imply that the IPCC should continue producing voluminous reports over a long period of time (see Chap. 11).

On the other hand, it is increasingly hard for the IPCC to conduct a comprehensive literature review and assessment regarding specific topics such as bioenergy (as a crosscut that is crucial to all the global mitigation goals), because thousands of papers were published on this topic in recent years. Developing better methods for synthesis and meta-analysis would be required to mitigate this challenge.

This implies risks for their career perspective if they are heavily engaged in assessments. It can furthermore imply health risks (burnout, etc.).

A good example of what I mean is the current academic debate in Germany about whether or not “transformative research,” i.e., highly policy-relevant, solution-oriented research, poses a threat to scientific purity, integrity and credibility (see, e.g., Grunwald 2015).

An example of this approach is the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, see http://www.ipbes.net/ (accessed 30 Jun 2015).

An example of this approach is the International Panel on Social Progress, see http://www.ip-socialprogress.org/ (accessed 30 Jun 2015); it does not (yet) have a mandate from policymakers.

See again the research project on assessments already mentioned in Sect. 10.5 at http://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/cooperation/unep.html (accessed 30 Jun 2015).

Two interesting examples of health-related assessments include http://ctb.ku.edu/en/table-of-contents/overview/models-for-community-health-and-development/health-impact-assessment/main and http://www.integrated-assessment.eu/ (both accessed 30 Jun 2015).

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Titel: Potential Implications of the IPCC Reform: Deliberative Learning and Difficulties of In-Depth Policy Assessment
verfasst von: Martin Kowarsch
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: A Pragmatist Orientation for the Social Sciences in Climate Policy
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-43279-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-43281-6

Copyright-Jahr: 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43281-6_12

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