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2018 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Presidential and Subnational Elections: The Logic of Party Alignments in Brazil (1994–2010)

verfasst von : Vítor Eduardo Veras de Sandes-Freitas, Fernando Augusto Bizzarro-Neto

Erschienen in: Coalition Politics and Federalism

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The chapter sought to understand how the political parties articulated themselves in the Brazilian states in order to form of electoral and governmental alliances in the current democratic regime. Some Brazilian studies point to a growing trend of alignment between the presidential and state-level electoral disputes in Brazil, mainly from the general elections of 1994. This would have happened because of the influence of bipolar dynamic on the disputes of presidential elections between PT and PSDB on strategies of alliances in the state level elections/campaign in Brazil. The findings of this study point to two conclusions. First, the state electoral arena has been increasingly impacted by presidential electoral strategies, since 1994, in face of PT and PSDB strategy to coordinate campaigns in the states. As for the party alliances within government, the state-level political dynamic allows parties to join forces following the particular political logic of each state, favoring agreements that cover the contextual political interests and not necessarily impacted by PT-PSDB alignment.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Coalition Politics in a Federalized Party System: The Case of Argentina

Nächstes Kapitel Long-term Patterns of Coalition-Building at State and Federal Level in Australia

Unless otherwise noted, all translations are ours.

Municipal elections for mayor and councilperson do not happen at the same time as national and state election, occurring 2 years later.

When looking at the transformations of the PT and the European mass parties, the differences in historical period and political context must be considered. Thus, it is not possible to assert that the PT became a catch-all party, as Kirchheimer identifies, or that it became a professional-electoral party, because both are ideal-types. Without fitting it into a theoretical type, it is possible to affirm that the PT professionalized and sought to broaden and soften its rhetoric in such a way as to increase the possibility of electoral gains.

The winning coalition established by the PT in 2002, which had as a vice-president businessman José de Alencar (Liberal Party), showed the transformation the party went through since its beginning. This was made clearer with the publication of the “Letter to the Brazilian People”, in June 2002. As Singer (2010: 105) states, the program published in July 2002 by Lula’s coalition points to a “noticeable change in tone regarding capital” (our translation).

In a meeting in 18 August 1979, during the PT’s creation process, Fernando Henrique Cardoso disagreed with the party’s platform, which opted for autonomy in relation to the parliamentarians (Amaral 2003: 33).

Despite the strength of other parties that may, occasionally, get a significant share of voter preferences, making a decision in the first round impossible, the PT and the PSDB have controlled the majority of the votes in presidential elections. In the 2006 elections, Anthony Garotinho (PSB) got 17.9% of the votes and Ciro Gomes (Popular Socialist Party), 12%. In 2010, Marina Silva (Green Party) got 19.3% of the votes. The good performance of these candidates was, in large part, responsible for the run-off elections in 2006 and 2010. However, the run-offs were between the PT and the PSDB.

Similar do Lima Junior, Bardi e Mair (2010) believe that political parties, despite being the same at the local and national levels, may have different strategies, with alternative coalitions and alignments in each state (2010: 241).

The findings of Lima Junior (1983), which allowed the development of the “contextual political rationalities” idea, are restricted to 1946–1964. In the collection organized by him in 1997, it is taken up again, but applied to the current democratic period (post-1985).

Despite the PT and the PSDB getting their votes from different Brazilian regions, in the last two elections, the Northeast has given the PT its best performance out of all the regions in the country (in 2006, 66.8% of votes and, in 2010, 61.6%), while the PSDB has had its worse performance in that region (in 2006, 26.1% and, in 2010, 21.5% of votes).

From 1990 to 2010, there were six elections for governor in the 27 Brazilian states, that is, there were 162 elections in total. From that, there were 134 pre-electoral coalitions that had the PT and the PSDB on opposite sides, that is, on 82.7% of the cases. In only seven cases, the PT and the PSDB were in the same coalition: in 1990, in the states of Amazonas, Amapá, and Pará; in 1994, in Mato Grosso and in Santa Catarina; and in 1998, in Acre and Piauí.

The intention was to inhibit the formation of “oddball coalitions”. However, it was observed that in the 2002 and 2006 elections, there was a flourishing of informal coalitions (Fleischer 2007). That may be explained by the differences and particularities of regional politics historically constructed in Brazilian states, which implies in a minimization of the impact of the presidentialization of the electoral competition.

For this analysis, we used the left-right classification done by Zucco Jr (2011). The paper presents an ideological positioning classification of the main Brazilian parties for the period after the Constituent Assembly (1990–2009), from the project “Brazilian Legislative Study” (PLB), the result of a joint effort by several researchers, including Timothy Power (University of Oxford).

According to the classification established by Zucco Jr (2011), the PPS was one of the parties that most moved towards the right, considering the studies done in 2005 and 2009. However, the PPS’s positioning in the studies done before 2009 put it in the left-end of the spectrum.

In 1994, 80% of the PSDB’s candidacies to state governments opted to form coalitions with other parties. This trend of the party to launch candidacies with coalitions involving other parties continues in the following elections: in 1998 (100%), in 2002 (90.9%), in 2006 (82.4%) and in 2010 (100%).

As it has been shown, the PFL-DEM has never participated in coalitions in which the candidate for the state’s government was from the PT. There are only two instances in which the PT and the PFL-DEM appear in the same coalition: in 2002, in the PSL’s candidacy for Roraima’s government, and in 2010, in the PMDB’s candidacy for Maranhão’s government.

The parties that appeared as the main allies for the PT and the PSDB at the national level were considered, as per the literature presented. The PMDB, in this case, was not considered for the presidentialization calculation given its heterogeneous nature in the states.

In 1994, in Paraná, the PSDB did not have a candidate or participate in any pre-electoral coalitions. The PT had a candidate, but came in third. In Santa Catarina, the PT and the PSDB were in the same coalition, but only came in fourth in the election, one that was polarized between a solo candidacy from the PPR against the PMDB, which was in coalition with several small parties (PTRB-PMN-PSD-PV-PRP) and won.

According to Spoon and West (2015: 399), “if party leaders feel that the party has no chance of winning in the current election, they will not risk their reputation by running alone, but will instead wait until they are stronger competitors in the next term. Because there are limits on the number of terms the president can serve, the party knows how long it has to prepare for the next election. In the absence of term limits, a party may be willing to risk its reputation as it has no guarantee how long the incumbent may hold the executive”.

Like Rihoux and Ragin (2009), the QCA label will be used to describe three types of methods within the same approach: crisp-set QCA (based on binary Boolean logic), multi-value QCA (with the attribution of multiple categorical values for the variables), and fuzzy-set QCA (which attributes 0 to 1 values to the variables).

For the tests using the fuzzy-set method, the software used was fs/QCA, version 2.5.

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Titel: Presidential and Subnational Elections: The Logic of Party Alignments in Brazil (1994–2010)
verfasst von: Vítor Eduardo Veras de Sandes-Freitas
Fernando Augusto Bizzarro-Neto
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Coalition Politics and Federalism
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-75099-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-75100-9

Copyright-Jahr: 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75100-9_7

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