Projected Land-Use Change for the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed and Its Potential Impact

Human occupation of the Panama Canal Watershed has affected its land cover for the past century. A rule-based model was developed and applied to estimate changes in land use and subsequent carbon emissions over the next twenty years in the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed (EPCW). Projections show that the highest percent change in land use for the ‘new-road’ scenario compared to the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario is for urban areas, and the greatest cause of carbon emission is from deforestation. Thus, the most effective way to reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere in the EPCW is by reducing deforestation. In addition to affecting carbon emissions, reducing deforestation would also protect the soil and water resources of the EPCW, which has important implications for the long-term sustainable operation of the Panama Canal.